Ball Don't Lie - NBA

With less than five weeks of the season left, the difference between the conference leading Rockets and the No. 9 Nuggets is just six games. No playoff spots have been clinched; anyone could still play anyone. So, we asked a few of the best team bloggers around: If the playoffs started tomorrow, which opponent would you most (and least) want to see in the first round? Here are their answers.

The Dream Shake: As I write this, the Rockets are a solid hour into enjoying their most recent and satisfying victory in a 22 game winning streak. And we beat the team that was tied with us for the #1 overall spot in the West. It felt good to beat Kobe. In the playoffs, however, it will feel much better to put a hurtin' on the Utah Jazz. I hate the Utah Jazz. I hate the Utah Jazz more than Eric Cartman hates hippies. Game 7 last year was an abomination. T-Mac even cried afterwards. The Houston Rockets lost a game 7 at home for the first time. And it sucked. This year I want to make Kirilenko cry. Okay, make him cry again.

Utah has nearly the same team as last year ... minus Derek Fisher and plus Ashton Korver. The Rockets added Bobby Jackson and "Luis Landry". The Scola/Landry combination alone atones for the one major weakness we had last year -- production from the power forward position. This year it's a position of strength. And if/when Tracy eliminates Utah with Yao there cheering him on ... I can't think of anything sweeter other than winning it all.

Speaking as an NBA fan, is there anyone in the West 1-thru-9, that any other team actually wants to face?  This year is the single most impressive Western Conference in NBA history. However, as a Texan, I do not want to face off against either of the two other Texas teams. I wholeheartedly believe the Rockets can handle the Mavericks and the Spurs, but I simply do not want to deal with the fans of the other teams in my arena. While we are an expansive state, there is a large amount of movement between the cities and, in the Spurs case, an excessive supply of bandwagon fans. The fans living in the other team's cities, and those that travel with the team, can be an intolerable bunch, win or lose, and frankly I've tired of dealing with it. I also have an insatiable need to insulate drunken fans (yes, Rockets fans too) from turning a sporting event into a pissing contest. The most elementary way for me to do that is to avoid San Antonio and Dallas; though I do truly enjoy handing out beat downs to both Southwest Division foes.

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Forum Blue and Gold: The "bring it on" team is the Phoenix Suns. There is not much fear of them anymore because, despite the trade for Shaq, this is not a good defensive team. They are simply going to try to outscore you, and that is not the way you win a title. Shaq gives them a bigger presence in the paint but at this point in his career his rotations are slow, and if you have a center who can hit the 18-foot jumper (hello Pau Gasol) you can pull Shaq away from the rim and make him far less effective. But the real defensive problem for them is on the wing -- without Marion Raja Bell is the only decent perimeter defender they have. Think about it if they are playing the Lakers -- Bell may slow Kobe (somewhat) but who then tries to cover Odom? You can pick and roll them to death if you have a good PG -- Nash ad Shaq can be exposed. After the last couple of years, Lakers fans really would like another shot at the Suns, this season (when healthy) the Lakers really have the Suns number. And a lot of other teams do to.

Who would the Lakers like to avoid? The San Antonio Spurs. This is not only a team that is the defending champions but is a tough match up -- a point guard who can get into the lane and score or pass (something the Lakers struggle with), another wing payer with all-world skills and a center (no way Duncan is a forward, don’t care what you say) who can play inside and out. Those stars are surrounded by smart, veteran role players who play within themselves. The Spurs are committed on the defensive end and are efficient on offense. They can beat you in a number of different styles. They may be getting old, but if you think they are not the team to beat in the West you are kidding yourself.

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Bright Side of the Sun: A week ago, I would probably have picked the Yao-less Rockets hands down as the lesser of seven evils (OK, I did do that). But then there's that whole 22-game winning streak thing, and the fact the Suns have yet to face the Rockets since trading Shawn Marion for Shaq. There are no "cupcakes" in the West this season. So, in light of this, I think you can make an argument for just about any team being the preferred match-up for one crazy reason or the other (the Spurs would be the most satisfying, the Warriors would be the most entertaining, the Mavericks would be the best grudge match with the Nash-Cuban angle, etc.)

All that said -- and with full knowledge I may look like a fool a week from now -- I'm sticking with my pick for the Rockets. Even with the acquisition of Shaq, and the breakout of Amare Stoudemire, the Suns still rely so much on Steve Nash, that I'm partial to match-ups that favor the Suns at the point guard spot. Also, without Yao, the Suns should rule the paint, and Raja Bell should be able to pester Tracy McGrady. Here's hoping I didn't just put the mother of all jinxes on my team when they face the Rockets this coming Saturday.

As for who I'd least like to see? The Lakers. Forget about the fact they're a popular pick to win it all, and that they mostly "owned" the Suns in the regular season. Starting the playoffs against the same team three seasons in a row is simply too monotonous.

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Pounding the Rock: The question of who the Spurs most want to see in the playoffs is an easy one to answer:  whichever team employs the dead, rotting corpse of Robert Horry. Since one cannot play themselves in the playoffs (though Phil Jackson will undoubtedly try to “zenvince” his Lakers that they are, in fact, battling only themselves and those who would fill them with trans-fat and non-free-range chicken), playing against Robert Horry's collective detritus would imply he's no longer part of the Spurs' geriatric wing. Yes, fine, ok, he's going to hit a big shot in the playoffs. He's also going to miss dozen of wide open looks and generally muck up the offense. Offensively speaking, the Spurs are 8.9 points worse per 100 possessions when Horry's on the court compared to when he's sitting. You cannot nostalgia that away.

If forced to select a more realistic, the obvious answer is Golden State. They generally abstain from defense and each of the Spurs big three creates significant match-up problems for them. The Spurs, assuming their rickety joints are properly lubed before the game (which they should given the extended playoff schedule), are quite effective at slowing down the fast break. Not to mention Golden State, namely Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson, can easily be convinced to hoist many a horrible jumper.

Who would we least like to face? The Lakers would be the biggest nemesis. Both Gasol and Odom have been pains in our side in the past. Bowen's been generally successful in slowing down Kobe (even outscoring him on a couple of occasions), but he's never gotten into his head. With Bynum, Pau and Turiaf they have three different types of defenders to throw at Duncan.

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Pickaxe and Roll: The question of what team would be the best match-up in the playoffs for the Nuggets is a difficult one seeing as how my number one choice, Seattle, has been mathematically eliminated for a while. But going under the dangerous assumption Denver will end up making it, the team I would prefer them to play would be New Orleans. First of all, the Nuggets do match up pretty well with the Hornets. Marcus Camby and Tyson Chandler are very similar players. Kenyon Martin has been playing better and better since the All-Star break and he matches up well with David West and no one on the Hornets can handle Carmelo Anthony or Allen Iverson. Of course Chris Paul is no picnic to try to defend, but Denver has shown that they can bottle him up for short stretches this season.

The other reason to hope for a match-up against the Hornets would be their lack of playoff experience. Teams typically have to pay their dues before they advance in the NBA playoffs (Golden State had not been there as a team, but Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington had all been on playoff winners), and New Orleans has a gaggle of players who have little or no playoff experience. How the Hornets will handle the added pressure is an unknown.

The list of teams the Nuggets do not want to see in the playoffs is eight teams long. They have not won a season series against any of the playoff teams in the West.

It is difficult to imagine a scenario at this point where Denver will advance out of the first round. That being said, the only playoff team the Nuggets have not defeated this season is the Lakers. Los Angeles has handed Denver two of their most embarrassing losses of the season to date and Pau Gasol was not yet in the equation for any of the three meetings.

Los Angeles is such a great passing team that it is only a matter of time before the pick Denver's lackadaisical defense to pieces.  Denver has no one who can physically match-up with Kobe aside from J.R. Smith and he is, to be kind, a work in progress on the defensive end of the court. If Denver makes the playoffs and they end up sharing a bracket box with the Lakers, I might not even bother to tune in.

(Note: I'll post the Jazz, Hornets, Mavericks and Warriors bloggers' opinions later this week.)

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  1. Anton
    1. Posted by Anton Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:48 pm EDT

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    Well, I would not like to see Houston go against the Warriors. The Warriors are an uptempo team and Houston doesn't have the leverage of having Yao against the Warriors. And they are not a fast paced team. If Houston could slow the Warriors down then maybe they could get out of the first round. And I don't know about Houston up against the Suns or Spurs either. To be honest, I'm hoping this 22 win don't be fate knocking on the door as an early exit out of the playoff. I'm McGrady fan and would like to see him move on to the 2nd round. Be better against Utah or Hornets. Without Yao, it's hard to see Houston against any team but as long as the momentum is kept then I say "bring it on."
    I'd love to see Hornets vs. Utah. Two of the best point guards in the league battle it out.
    The Suns would not do well with the Spurs because the Spurs are defensively one of the best in the west. And scoring against them sans defense isn't going to work. Suns would do better with the Warriors - have a shootout. Amare is better offensively but where's the defense?
    As a Dallas fan (even after Kidd), I don't want to see Lakers against Dallas, especially with Bynum, Gasol (being healthy, that is) and Odom. That'd be a costly reminder to Dallas for trading Diop. Be better the Lakers vs. Nuggets but it's hard to believe the Nuggets will make it b/c GS have not slowed down. Dallas vs. Houston or Hornets.
    The team to beat is still the Spurs.
  2. Forty
    2. Posted by Forty Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:18 pm EDT

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    LOL...now suddenly it's "WE"......i wonder how long it will take for the Rockets to become a "THEM"..or a "THEY"......bandwagoner
  3. Chris M
    3. Posted by Chris M Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:48 pm EDT

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    Quote: "Speaking as an NBA fan, is there anyone in the West 1-thru-9, that any other team actually wants to face?"
    I truly believe that the Jazz would beat the Warriors 99 times out of 100 in a 7 game series, with or without home court advantage. So, yea, we really do want to face the Warriors. And we really don't want to face the Spurs. Everyone else is somewhere in the middle.
  4. Domecia
    4. Posted by Domecia Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:46 pm EDT

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    I still think the Spurs are the team to beat because they play playoff basketball all year long. They have been on a short streak lately just like other playoff styled teams (Detroit, Dallas). With other teams still learning how to use new pieces (Suns, Mavs, Lakers), the Spurs seem to be a little more solid. Houston is doing great (better than my Lakers) but there doesn't appear to be anyone on that team who knows how to play and win in the playoffs other than their coach. The regular season is great but playoffs are a different story. Just ask the league leading Mavs from a few years ago. The whole game is different when every possession counts.
  5. Create Wonders
    5. Posted by Create Wonders Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:11 pm EDT

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    The dream Western finals for any fan of entertaining basketball would be the Suns vs Nuggets, I'm sorry but Superstar players at a will to score freely is great for the NBA and its fans. NBA needs to get rid of conferences and just have a open league and the top 16 teams qualify for playoffs (Regardless of geography)
  6. dj4dx
    6. Posted by dj4dx Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:44 pm EDT

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    I just hope the Lakers and Suns get their traditional meeting this year... cause I want to see Shaq's face as kobe knocks him out of the playoffs...
  7. andy p
    7. Posted by andy p Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:54 pm EDT

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    Ok I am going to break it down.
    San Antonio........Want Houston, Hate Dallas
    Lakers.......Want Phoenix, Hate San Antonio
    New Orleans.......Want Phoenix, Hate prety much everyone else
    Phoenix.......Want New Orleans, Hate Everyone else
    Dallas......Want New Orleans, Hate Lakers
    Houston......Want Golden State, Hate Utah
    Utah......Want Houston, Hate Dallas
    Golden State......Want Anyone, Hate Houston/San Antonio
  8. java_puppy
    8. Posted by java_puppy Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:29 pm EDT

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    Houston, we have problem. "Drunking and Drive". I do not know who power ranking works, but for playoff, Houston is still the team every other 7 teams want to meet in first round, utill they can get over it this year.
  9. andy p
    9. Posted by andy p Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:54 pm EDT

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    I believe the team anyone wouls at least accept to play in the first round is New Orleans....for some reason they dont look as scary as other teams. I would say the same for Houston but damn they dont wanna lose!
  10. David
    10. Posted by David Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:13 pm EDT

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    did someone just indirectly call me a bandwagon-er for using the term "we" in my analysis? ouch. I know Houston is a city filled with fair-weather fans, but I can assure you that I am not one of them.
  11. uoftorange
    11. Posted by uoftorange Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:28 pm EDT

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    nor am i a bandwagon fan. i've been a rockets fan since i can remember. i've gone to at least 3 games in every season since 1988 and that included the 9 years i lived in austin or the number would be much higher.
  12. JC
    12. Posted by JC Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:19 pm EDT

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    after last year's playoffs, the Jazz WANT GS and want to AVOID SAS. So far this season I would say that the Jazz WANT the Rockets or Hornets, but want to AVOID the Spurs and Lakers. We've played well enough against Dallas and Phoenix, but I wouldn't bet on the Jazz unless they had homecourt.
  13. alex n
    13. Posted by alex n Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:20 pm EDT

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    post number 7, your picks are strongly flawed
    Dallas does not want New Orleans because Dallas will fail to guard Chris Paul. Maybe if they had Harris still but Kidd cannot match with his quickness and Terry can't match his strength, remember Baron taking apart the Mavs last year.
    Also Houston may have wanted to face GS when they had Yao but a Yaoless Rocket team will not be able run with GS.
    Utah wants GS more than any other team. San Antonio i think would want Utah the most and would pretty fear most other team even GS because GS has beaten twice this season already but we all know that the Spurs are a different team in the playoffs.
    Lastly GS would most want to play Houston, Phoenix, and Dallas because Nelson thrives on match-up problems which GS has against these three teams, and GS would hate to see Utah, LAL, and SA because they have all have strong big men, Boozer, Bynum and gasol, and duncan respectively.
  14. jason
    14. Posted by jason Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:29 pm EDT

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    i know the suns hav a weak defense, but in case people haven't been watching, the worst rebounding team in the league, the suns, have only lost 2 of 13 rebounding battles since shaq came to town! It's not all about how many rebounds he'll get vs Marion (the player who left), it's more about Amare getting out of that center position. And as for team with no defense, people will be shocked when the Suns win it all this year, and a large part of it will be to their new defense. If you'd seen the game against the Celtics, or the Warriors, or the Spurs recently, this team is not the team that got crushed by Detroit 2-3 weeks ago. As to who we're afraid of, I would've said L.A., but with gasol in and out, and bynum currently out, unsure of how they'll be in a few weeks. But I am afraid of N.O, but, C.Paul has owned every point guard he's gone up against. Hill is a quiet secret weapon that may aren't thinking about, he was a defensive player of the year in college, and he's been really showing it recently.
  15. David B
    15. Posted by David B Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:37 pm EDT

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    The Jazz will own you once again my friend
  16. big E
    16. Posted by big E Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:56 pm EDT

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    chris m - you say that Utah would beat G S 99 of 100 games. You must be assuming 99 of the games would be played in Salt Lake. Have you looked at Utah's home/away records lately?
  17. Erin G
    17. Posted by Erin G Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:55 pm EDT

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    The guy hates Utah...the most fundamentally sound "pass first" non-selfish, enjoyable team to watch...that will pound you and finess you all at once (love Harpring and Milsap)...That guy is such an idiot. Without Yao, Houston has no chance against Utah..he should pray for someone else, could Utah would kick the shout out of Houston...it would not even be fair...4-0 or 4-1. With Yao the series is closer, but Utah still would have the edge.
    Utah is every team's worst nightmare...so many weapons so many angles,, awesome bench..Sloan hard nosed b-ball. I LOVE them and I am not even from Utah...just love the old school the way B-ball should be played...no babies..no kobi egos..just play or your sitting...gotta love that!
    GO JAZZ...
  18. kelly y
    18. Posted by kelly y Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:52 pm EDT

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    The jazz can take on anyone in the western conference
  19. Gunter
    19. Posted by Gunter Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:14 pm EDT

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    If I were a Rockets fan I would hate the Jazz too. Wasn't it against the Rockets that John Stockton hit a buzzer-beater over Chuck Barkley to send the Jazz to their first Finals? Yeah, and then there was the big choke in Houston last year. Houston is clutch city until the Jazz arrive. Face it, you'll never get anywhere with T-Mac as your go-to guy.
  20. E
    20. Posted by E Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:57 pm EDT

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    I had no idea there were so many current NBA players blogging and posting on message boards. Unless you are currently playing for an NBA team, 'you' can't be part of a 'we'.
  21. o_oholycrap
    21. Posted by o_oholycrap Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

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    if rockets can keep this streak on till playoffs, its good to face the jumpshooting warriors who can't exploid yao by run and gun anymore. But if rockets are to lose and drop, then drop to 5th and lets have a rm of last year first round
  22. Mike K
    22. Posted by Mike K Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:51 pm EDT

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    warrios dont want the jazz
    jazz got their numbers which i hate to say cause im a warrior fan!
  23. Dilovan D
    23. Posted by Dilovan D Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:43 pm EDT

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    i would love to see the Denver Nuggets play the Sun in the first round of playoffs ..Denver would average 150 for the series..and beat them..
  24. Lucky
    24. Posted by Lucky Thu Sep 03, 2009 6:59 pm EDT

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    the team to beat rite now is the celtix, n the pistonz.

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