Ball Don't Lie - NBA



You'd think that Brad Miller(notes) heading to the Houston Rockets is just another case of some team overpaying for need and overpaying to prevent another suitor from pulling in the wanted asset.

And then you remember Rick Adelman.

(Shoot, that's right. Rick Adelman.)

Brad Miller's best years, spent either replacing Chris Webber(notes) or Vlade Divac at that high post in Sacramento, were with Rick Adelman. Making his fantasy-league owners happy, finding cutters and shooters and sometimes getting his own.

Three years, $15 million for Miller. A below-average deal, with the third year only partially guaranteed. Longtime readers likely know my rooting interests, so Miller is one of the few players I've had the pleasure to have watched objectively, and as a simmering, often angry, fan. And while the versatile reserve center has gotten my goat on occasion, overall, the pluses outweigh the minuses.

At least at this stage. The 34-year-old would seem ripe to age in dog years, and while his effectiveness fell, well, rather significantly last season (to use a catch-all, his PER dove from around 17 to 13), if he sustains this sort of lo-fi play, he should make up for the length and cost of his deal.

Brad can shoot, score and pass. Not the greatest defensive rebounder at this point, and he's kind of terrible at guarding centers off the dribble. Then again, if you're a center and you're having to guard another center off the dribble, you're probably going to be pretty terrible.

Miller is turnover prone and too often forces passes to his favorite targets, but that kind of joie de vivre is understandable. What is less understandable is why I used the phrase "joie de vivre" in a column analyzing the play of Brad Miller.

Whether Yao Ming(notes) can be effective in his return to the Rockets next season is anyone's guess. Yao himself isn't going to know until he puts wheels to NBA pavement this fall. What is certain is that, best-case scenario, Yao has to top out at 30 minutes a game. Has to.

That's where Zydrunas Ilgauskas(notes) fell in his first full season back after dealing with what Yao went through, and Big Z rewarded the Cavs with nearly a decade's worth of fantastic contributions as a result. So even if Yao plays, and looks like the All-Star we remember, he's still going to need help.

Brad Miller is about as good as help gets in that position.

***

Speaking of our buddy Zydrunas, and keeping with that catch-all theme, few players saw a drop as big as Ilgauskas did in PER last season. From 18 (his third straight year around that line) to 12. And for someone who does most of his damage in ways that are accurately (and sometimes, overrate-ing-ly) documented by the typical box score, this is bad news.

Because Big Z does all the things necessary to pump up a solid PER. Gets offensive rebounds. Shoots a good percentage. Makes his free throws. Doesn't turn the ball over. This isn't a knock on Z or PER. And this isn't to say PER overrates Zydrunas.

It's to tell you that, despite all that, he was off last year. Perhaps a bit down, after the Cleveland Cavaliers traded for Shaquille O'Neal(notes), the trade rumors that followed, the actual trade to Washington that followed that, and the criticism that came with his subsequent waiving by Washington and the return to Cleveland. On top of that, Mike Brown was far from delicate in his handling of Z's possible winter as a Cavalier ... or it could just be that Zydrunas is a 7-3 guy with a lot of wear on those treads that turned 35 soon after the season ended.

Tread be damned, the Heat jumped on the chance to sign Z last week, and hopefully they'll be rewarded for their efforts. Ilgauskas can spread the floor, crash the offensive boards and win jump balls. This is to be appreciated, and if Z can at least split the difference between last year and the year before, then Miami will have struck huge.

***

If Ilgauskas falls further? Joel Anthony(notes) is back on board with Miami. For five years.

Five years?

Five years.

Eh. It's for $18 million, which isn't a ton, but this just reeks of an unnecessary millstone.

Anthony can really block shots. According to basketball-reference.com, 6.7 percent of the shots tossed up in his presence were sent back by Joel last season, a figure that ranks amongst the best in the NBA (Dwight Howard(notes) sent 6 percent back). And beyond that? He's awful.

Turns the ball over at a nasty rate. Doesn't rebound. Doesn't finish well for someone with his size and athleticism. So, he's a project, right?

Well, no. The guy turns 28 in three weeks. Twenty-eight. So, this contract will run through Joel Anthony's prime. And despite the need at center and his mention in The Decision, is Joel Anthony's prime worth five years (FIVE YEARS!) and $18 million?

We'll find out in five years. Assuming we're not all in space by then.

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27 Comments

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  1. TheSportsGenius.com
    1. Posted by TheSportsGenius.com Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:21 pm EDT

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    Brad Miller is a good bench player for any team.
  2. JTW
    2. Posted by JTW Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:21 pm EDT

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    Love the humor, KD. It's why I read.
  3. john
    3. Posted by john Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:24 pm EDT

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    Most of the big men mentioned have a lot of "if's"surrounding them.
  4. Lukasz K
    4. Posted by Lukasz K Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:38 pm EDT

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    Joel has a 5 year contract in the NBA. That is so crazy. They could have brought up a player from the d-league every year for the next 5 years to play for the minimum and gotten similar/better contribution.
  5. Todd L
    5. Posted by Todd L Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:59 pm EDT

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    if we're in space, does that at least mean we don't need to hear about lebron anymore? and are we allowed to keep laker fans on the other side of the universe?
  6. Wu
    6. Posted by Wu Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:12 pm EDT

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    David Kahn is better at his job than Trey Kerby or Kelly Dwyer is at theirs.
  7. randallhank
    7. Posted by randallhank Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:25 pm EDT

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    Yes, most of the talk about all these fantastic role players signing with Miami is coming from the Heat. Aside from Mike Miller, now on the wrong side of 30 and with a steep decline in PER. Miami's Big Three doesn't have a player with a PER above 12 (unless you count Carlos Arroyo). So, despite what we've been told about Miami proving the pundits wrongs in piecing together a good team, the players Miami has gotten have been pretty terrible. And any player worth a nickel more than the league minimum has signed, or will sign. elsewhere. IN the end, the Miami bench is about what we thought it would be: terrible. And remember: these aren't end of the bench players we are talking about, at least half of these guys are supposed to be top of the rotation players. Haslem will be a great help coming off the bench, but for the most part this team has no defense. Aside from Miller, I am not sure who can get buckets off the bench. I'll be the first to admit that the Heat might not need a bench, but the idea that they've amassed players that are better than expected is pure spin designed to attract what few other talents are left on the market. The best of the remaining players won't be signing with the Heat no matter how many names Winderman and the other newly anointed hacks throw out there for Miami.
  8. Anthony
    8. Posted by Anthony Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:42 pm EDT

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    I feel like people just decide to hate on KD for no reason, or they just think it's the "in" thing. Maybe people should actually read his articles and realize it's one of the few places on the internet that provides real analysis of situations. Unless you think that crap on ESPN or SI is real analysis.
  9. dj M
    9. Posted by dj M Mon Jul 19, 2010 6:14 pm EDT

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    i could play better then anthony and id sign for a mill a year
  10. Mark Robert 1970
    10. Posted by Mark Robert 1970 Mon Jul 19, 2010 6:20 pm EDT

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    Miller's a great addition for the Rockets! If, and I say if the Rockets are healthy next season, watch out!!! Laker's are still the team to beat in the West, but they'd have their hands full with a healthy Rockets team! Watch out for OK City too.
  11. DRok
    11. Posted by DRok Mon Jul 19, 2010 6:22 pm EDT

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    I'm sorry, David Kahn is not better at his job than Trey Kerby or Kelly Dwyer is at theirs. You can say they suck, that you don't like them, but they simply are not as bad as David Kahn.
  12. sw_ohio
    12. Posted by sw_ohio Mon Jul 19, 2010 6:33 pm EDT

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    Z really declined this year and he was helpless against Orlando in the playoffs the year before. If he hadn't faded the Cavs might have two championships. I think he's done.
  13. th866451
    13. Posted by th866451 Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:12 pm EDT

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    Take it easy on Joel, he isn't even the worst Canadian on his team!!!!! har har k no joel and jamaal are equally as bad
  14. JMVandal (Formerly James M)
    14. Posted by JMVandal (Formerly James M) Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:17 pm EDT

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    joie de vivre, The Decision, and Ziggy Stardust references in the same column? They said it was impossible!
    Another good read, KD.
    I do have one gripe about no comment thus far about the West's overall moves to size up and where you thought a healthy Yao + Scola + Miller puts them in the West relative to the Spurs with their recent moves and how much closer (or not) it put these teams against the Lakers three Bigs (still top dog).
  15. JRA
    15. Posted by JRA Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:34 pm EDT

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    anthony is better than that. he does grab rebounds, besides his role is to chew up some minutes, like 10 a game for others to rest. the lengh of the contract seems right but i thing that i would have paid like 2 mill a year
  16. S
    16. Posted by S Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:55 pm EDT

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    3 years for 15mil, a steal. I dont think shaq can get that these days but he cant run anymore. Good move Houston.
  17. bobby
    17. Posted by bobby Mon Jul 19, 2010 8:11 pm EDT

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    why diss anthony? anthony is the kendrick perkins of the heat.
  18. Rico F
    18. Posted by Rico F Mon Jul 19, 2010 8:12 pm EDT

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    Rockets 2011 champs! Count on it!
  19. Rico F
    19. Posted by Rico F Mon Jul 19, 2010 8:13 pm EDT

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    Rockets 2011 champs. Count on it.
  20. greg_n_burton
    20. Posted by greg_n_burton Mon Jul 19, 2010 8:40 pm EDT

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    careful, KD. You're in danger of acting like this is a basketball blog, instead of the guys-in-short-pants version of "The View". Remember, Yahoo! is "#1 in entertainment", and we wouldn't want to dilute that with actual sports, would we? Bueller?
    ps - joie de vivre clearly comes from the Proustian retrospection you engaged in while thinking about Brad Miller.
  21. Real Rocket Fan
    21. Posted by Real Rocket Fan Mon Jul 19, 2010 8:45 pm EDT

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    Good move for the ROCKETS!!..... They will have a nice playyoff run.. COUNT ON IT!! CLUTCH CITY BABY
  22. Badomen
    22. Posted by Badomen Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:02 am EDT

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    Brad cannot play center unless it is against a team's number 3 or 4 center. He's weak, can't move...but a nice guy. A well paid sub. Chicago is better off as he doesn't even foul well in order to have his minutes utilized properly. If the slug could play D the Bulls would have kept him. He's too twiggy for today's game.
  23. GM Gentry
    23. Posted by GM Gentry Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:47 am EDT

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    I think you went too hard On the Anthony deal.Sure he just turned 28,but he also just had his best season,and now with guys like Bosh and z creatimg even more space for him to catch and finish/get offensive boardshe may prove to be,as stated, the Kendrick Perkins of the Heat.with his shot blocking rate alon with LeBron's weak side blocking ability and Haslem's solid D forcin fools to take ungathered shots over a perfectly positioned body,along with Wade and LeBron's ability to jump passing lanes,the Heat are setting themselves up to be a top 3 defense.I'm a Laker fan personally,but I love Wade(Marquette alum,Milwaukee resident)so from a non hating perspective,I recognize how the parts around a player can increase his value exponentially...also,anybody else notice that with the players they have at the moment,their best lineup would with Lebron at the point? That's a lil scary.
  24. kelvinlcarter
    24. Posted by kelvinlcarter Tue Jul 20, 2010 6:46 am EDT

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    I like this move for Houston and yes I am a Rockets Fan....down with the Lakers!
  25. Rev A
    25. Posted by Rev A Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:17 am EDT

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    Miami's gain with big Z is Cleveland's gain. Z's ship passed
    through the night a while ago.

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