Ball Don't Lie - NBA

Detroit 91, Orlando 86 

And so we say goodbye to the Orlando Magic, mindful of and unsurprised by the limitations that are sending the team home in the second round, but hopeful that the learning process and improvin' season has just begun.

And we're also going to say "t'ank you" to the Detroit Pistons, who are playing the most determined and efficient brand of postseason basketball that we've seen from this outfit in years, not since the 2004-05 turn that saw them end up with a Game 7 to win it all in the NBA Finals.

With Chauncey Billups sidelined for the second consecutive game, the Pistons managed to actually win their second consecutive game, and you need to keep reminding yourself of that fact. The Magic were talented enough to drop the Pistons outright, even given the home court disadvantage and Billups' absence, and yet Detroit still stuck it out; winning four games in five despite missing their best player for nearly three of those contests.

Xs and Os aside, the win for Detroit was based mostly on effort, and we haven't been able to say that for years. We couldn't say that when the team dispatched the Magic and Bulls last season, nor the Bucks and Cavaliers the year before. Detroit worked, the team moved the ball and crashed the boards to the best of its ability, and tried to find the open man.

The Pistons could still fall apart at any instance, I'm still frightened by the team's approach to the first few games of the opening round series with Philadelphia, and wouldn't trust the squad to carry out a takeaway order ("NO CHEESE, ‘Sheed, geez..."); but the signs are the brightest that they've been in years. And I'm saying that regardless of the mess that's 2-2 in the other Eastern bracket.

Orlando has myriad issues. They start one small forward too many, the team turns the ball over way too much (that's an understatement, actually, more later), it can be muscled out of games, and Jameer Nelson needs to be a backup point guard. I'm not convinced that age will act as a panacea when it comes to aiding his decision-making, though I appreciate Nelson's instincts most of the time.

The turnover issues are so, so significant. They were around even when Brian Hill was making life miserable for Magic fans, and they've somehow influenced Rashard Lewis (six cough-ups on Tuesday night) who was far from turnover-prone in his time with Seattle.

21 turnovers for Orlando in Game 5, which is bad enough; but in this slow-down game, understand that they turned the ball over in 25.3 percent of their possessions. That's a ridiculous amount. That number would probably lead off a BtB in the middle of February, it's so bad, and it happened in a playoff game.

Making a miscue in one of every four possessions is awful enough, but dig this - Detroit turned it over in 3.6 percent of its possessions in Game 5. That, and I'm not trying to be cute, might be the best mark we've seen all year from any team.

That sort of disconnect - possibly the worst mark of the year coming in a game against possibly the best mark - cannot be sloughed off. Orlando is always in danger of ending up with those numbers, and even with the squad's major promise, an overhaul is needed. J.J. Redick, you have to believe me, needs more minutes. The team needs more low-turnover/high-yield players getting big minutes.

Orlando has to pull in a rebounder for the four spot, the Magic were dominated on the glass by the ancient Antonio McDyess late in Game 5, and if it means selling high with Hedo Turkoglu (he'll never be better than this season) or dumping (they wish) Rashard Lewis' contract, then do it. This team is a move or two away from a Finals appearance.

GM Otis Smith cannot bank on internal development with this crew. He has to be proactive, though I'm pretty much resigned to the idea that he overestimates his team and will use the squad's cap inflexibility (Orlando is over the cap next year with just ten players on the roster, once all the likely player options are exercised) as an excuse to stand pat.

Still, great year for Orlando. I can only hope that the team understands that it needs to work harder and get more creative if it wants to keep climbing that ladder.

New Orleans 101, San Antonio 79

Things went exactly as should have been expected and almost entirely according to plan in Game 5, but as you'll notice in last night's liveblog, that doesn't mean things weren't dicey and a bit scary for a spell.

San Antonio covered all angles for the first half of this game, holding a potent Hornets team to 44 points while nailing several three-pointers and generally making life a mess for the assembled observers. The Spurs led by only three points at the break, and yet it felt as if they were up by double-digits. Low-possession games tend to feel that way.

And then it started to go exactly as planned, O us of little faith, as the Hornets started getting stops (Coach Popovich was spot on when he pointed out that the New Orleans did the Spurs in) and leaking out in transition. A 28-point quarter is pretty significant in a game between two defensive powerhouses like these two teams, and San Antonio's 11-point third quarter was enough to put New Orleans comfortably ahead and for good.

Of course, the Basketball Gods are unrepentant bastards - New Orleans lost David West to a pinched nerve (passable, if not quite painful and/or annoying at times), and what appeared to be either a stress fracture or case a of turf toe for Tyson Chandler. That last injury, whatever it is, is incredibly scary, especially for a Hornets team that looks downright amateurish up front when Chandler sits.

Game 6, as Skeets hinted at about 1200 times last night, will also go according to plan. The Spurs, their role players especially, will get in the swing and shoot better from close range. San Antonio shot quite well from long range (9-23, 39 percent), but managed just 37 percent from inside the arc, and Coach Pop will find ways to send helpers back defensively once shots go up to try and mitigate any transition advantage the Hornets might have. Don't expect a lot of 3-on-2 breaks in Game 6. Manu Ginobili will be embarrassed by his two rebounds in nearly 38 minutes. The bench will hit perimeter shots. Expect a Game 7.

That said, if the Hornets keep up that defensive edge, if David West continues to make quick decisions with the ball offensively, if Julian Wright stays on the opposite end of the court when Manu has the ball, and if Jannero Pargo has a hot night, then the Hornets can move on to the Western Conference finals on Thursday. I just don't expect it.

Add-on: I try to stay away from the obvious with these posts, which is why I link to the wire service reports in the URLs that correspond with each game. These aren't by-the-book game recaps, which is why you won't often read about the team's leading scorer, rebounder, et cetera.

But I have to update with this point: David West scoring 38 points in an 83-possession game is a remarkable and impressive accomplishment. He may have had the best game of the postseason thus far, and it's worth a re-telling.

38 points, 14 rebounds (four offensive), five assists, two steals, five blocks, just two turnovers. In a low, low possession game. Tell your friends.

I'm pretty confident when I call this the best performance of the 2008 Playoffs. 

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28 Comments

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  1. SexualChocolate
    1. Posted by SexualChocolate Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:54 pm EDT

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    Where are all those Magic fans that have posting all week?
  2. the REAL Headless Chicken
    2. Posted by the REAL Headless Chicken Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:12 pm EDT

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    K.D., bloggers, great live blog. Even though I couldn't read it live (At 3 to 5 in the morning, are you crazy? I am European. And I need at least some sleep as well.). Great suspense talking about RICO and perfect comment by you RICO.
    Btw, I see one surprise - how everybody seems to be a flop these days even far away from San Antonio. And with the refs buying it.
  3. boreese77
    3. Posted by boreese77 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:11 pm EDT

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    I'm sure they will be here soon to blame the refs .
  4. Dad Zach
    4. Posted by Dad Zach Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:42 pm EDT

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    Oh Jameer where are you going now that your season is over. "I am going to Disney World, back to my Fantasy Land". SEE YA GO PISTONS
  5. baller13zg
    5. Posted by baller13zg Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:58 pm EDT

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    Mark my words. J.J. Redick will average 15 ppg next year.
  6. RedWingFan
    6. Posted by RedWingFan Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:18 pm EDT

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    Maybe things would have been different if the Magic still had Darko . . .
    Go Red Wings!
  7. Biskit
    7. Posted by Biskit Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:44 pm EDT

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    This is another example of how the NBA and its officials rig playoff series to get who they want in the Finals. Its no surprise that Orlando lost in 5, nobody watches the magic outside Orlando. But you look at every other series and to my surprise they are all tied and will go to game 7's. Have we all forgot that only last year a referee was found betting and fixing games his own games.
  8. Kibbitz
    8. Posted by Kibbitz Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    KD - the per-possession stats are a great help in understanding the game. What's the NBA average for percentage of possessions that end in turnovers, around 10-12 percent?
  9. KD
    9. Posted by KD Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:48 pm EDT

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    It's usually around 15/16 percent, but it doesn't jump much. The league leader (usually the Pistons) will be around 13, while the worst in the league will be around 17/18.
  10. Nick1
    10. Posted by Nick1 Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:36 pm EDT

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    my friends and i were raining down calls of "all-staaaaar" on d west last night. what a performance...
  11. rhodesj5
    11. Posted by rhodesj5 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:38 pm EDT

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    Nothing really worth commenting on here. The article was well written and did a great job of explaining, plain and simply, why the Pistons won in five. I'll hold my comments until I need to rebut more Orlando fans complaining about the referees or someother insignificant point of how Orlando was "jobbed".
    Biskit...really? You seriously thought this was going to go 7? The NBA/refs threw this series? You did watch the games, right? I am just waiting for Magic fans to say that Prince's block (amazing!) near the end was a foul....
  12. T-LoC
    12. Posted by T-LoC Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:23 pm EDT

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    I don't see any posting from Steven G who cautioned Pistons fans that this is a 7 game series and that it isn't over yet (before game 5).
    What is the "excuse du jour"? Did the Refs commit the turnovers too? Did they miss the free throws?
    Orlando could have won if DH could make a free throw......as I recall Sheed was laughing about DH's delivery of the ball on the free throw....a short little "Shaq' like" PUSH toward the rim.....
  13. ArrogantBastard
    13. Posted by ArrogantBastard Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:32 pm EDT

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    Biskit:
    Are you STILL complaining that the refs "threw the game", and now the series? Get it right, son! Your Magic couldn't beat the Pistons on a night that the Pistons made 31% of their field goals and 21% of their three point trys! More fouls were called on the Magic, but they were the team intentionally fouling at the end of the game, not the Pistons, so that number is misleading. The refs even looked the other way when Rashard Lewis (or somebody) CLEARLY dribbled the ball down out of bounds (not on the line either, the whole ball was out) with less than a minute left, and you got the call, had a shot to tie, and choked. You can't blame the refs for this....this happened because the Pistons are better and the Magic AREN'T READY.
  14. Larry C
    14. Posted by Larry C Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:52 pm EDT

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    I think bad coaching. When he dribbled outthere and everyone got away from paint. Same trick can not do it again and again. Some time you need to pass. Everyone knows that Turkoglu will make the last shot. He has been doing it for whole season and last two games. They should give it Lewis for a change. He earns big contract and, most important, he is not guarded by Prince, one of the best defender in the league. His reaction is quick and got a long long arm.
  15. james h
    15. Posted by james h Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:45 pm EDT

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    KD- pretty sure San Antonio won that game 7 in 2005, while Detroit won in 5 games in 2004.
  16. J-D
    16. Posted by J-D Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:31 pm EDT

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    21 turnovers by your team + 3 turnovers by the other team = fishing
  17. Larry C
    17. Posted by Larry C Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:52 pm EDT

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    Remember how spurs flopped last year and got the champs. Remember how Pop whinning and betting refs for favorite calls. It does not matter how you flops or dirty. As long you don’t got caught and win a ring. You are champion. Every player wants to get a ring. If flops refs buy that, so player flops. Flops and bad calls are part of today NBA games. Have you seen how Pop whinning and betting last night for favorite calls?? He knows it is part of the game and without it. Spurs can not get anywhere. Ask Magic coach to do the same thing next year.
  18. james h
    18. Posted by james h Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:45 pm EDT

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    Biskit- who in their right minds wants to see Detroit in the finals (aside from their fans)? If the league and networks were going to conspire, why would they conspire their way to a 5 game series? The more games played, the more revenue the league and networks make. The more games each series has the more dramatic each game becomes. If there was a conspiracy, it would be to create more game 7s, not to advance Detroit in 5 games.
    Or do you really think the league sent out a letter telling it's clock managers to stop the clock so the refs could not pay attention to it in the hopes of Chauncey Billups hitting a key shot in a close game? Did they intentionally design the replay rule to give Steve Javie (one of the most respected refs in the game) the ability to have that much blatant effect over the game? If they had that much ability to manipulate these games, then I'd mostly be upset that they are wasting their time fixing basketball games instead of using their magic powers to create a utopia on Earth...
  19. Don
    19. Posted by Don Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:46 pm EDT

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    someone needs to get van gundy a new tailor. his sleeves are about 2 inches short.i he wants to show the league he has no tricks up his sleeves.....steven g. ......where are you? how do you take your crow....fried,baked or broiled?
  20. Jason F
    20. Posted by Jason F Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:11 pm EDT

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    Jameer Nelson got outplayed by a rookie. He shouldn't even be guaranteeing himself a starting job next year. Magic got outplayed and outmuscled by a stronger smarter better team.
    Who would my fellow Piston fans rather see in the next round?
  21. KD
    21. Posted by KD Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:48 pm EDT

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    james h -- not saying that they won the Game 7, read again.
    They were left with a Game 7 to win the crown. They didn't win it, but they got there.
  22. Jack E
    22. Posted by Jack E Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:55 pm EDT

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    DEEEEETTROIT BAAASKETBALLLLL! D city baby, no one will be beating us this year. Magic suck
  23. khandor
    23. Posted by khandor Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:50 pm EDT

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    KD,
    Part of the reason West went off last night had to do with the officiating crew that overly penalized Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto with a series of cheap touch fouls and forced Popovich to go to the bench for a match-up to handle the Hornets under-sized scoring Power Forward.
    Unfortunately for the Spurs, Pop DID NOT choose wisely.
    http://khandorssportsblog.wordpress.com/2008/05/14/the-champs-are-on-the-ropes/
    Unless he does ... in Game 7 ... New Orleans will be sitting on a golden opportunity to eliminate the defending champs.
    Only question is ... "Will Pop figure it out in time to save the Spurs from that fate this year?" Or, will he go quietly into the night, stubbornly sticking to his guns (i.e. Horry & Udoka, no matter how wrong they are, from a match-up standpoint), come h*ll or high water, as he did two years ago when San Antonio was eliminated unnecessarily by an INFERIOR group of Mavericks because Pop insanely tried to play "small ball" with them in the WC semi's.
  24. khandor
    24. Posted by khandor Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:50 pm EDT

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    As far as this group of Pistons go ...
    * They are infinitely more talented than the last several Detroit teams that failed to reach the NBA Finals
    * They are a good as they played during the 4thQ last night to build up their 10 point lead ... and as bad as they played to almost give it all back, in the final 5 minutes, save for the monumental blocked shot by Tay Prince
    * They will go as far as Flip Saunders can take them ... as HE IS THEIR WEAKEST LINK, in what is otherwise a championship calibre organization.
  25. vct
    25. Posted by vct Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:32 pm EDT

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    all i know is that the quality of the games now aint the same with how they were before.. man you see blow outs happening from each series.. i dont know.. i think it just shows that teams before really have more heart than teams today.. just sucks!

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