BDL's 2009-10 NBA Preview: Los Angeles Lakers

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Once again back is the incredible ... Ball Don't Lie's NBA previews, outlining off-season moves, projecting win totals, spinning tracks and much, much more. It's a fun, hot mess. Next, the Los Angeles Lakers.

2008-09 Record: 65-17, first place in Pacific Division
Head Coach/Facial Hair: Phil Jackson/Not right now
Key Additions: Ron Artest (notes), Khloe Kardashian
Key Losses: Trevor Ariza (notes)

I don't know if the Los Angeles Lakers are going to win the NBA championship this season.

I do know that they handled the Cavaliers pretty well last year, managed the Spurs pretty well the year before, downed the Magic last year, and fell to the Celtics the year before that.

I also know, as you do, that the Cavaliers, Spurs, Magic and Celtics are all in very different places as we start 2009-10.

The point being — we don't know. Even when the postseason tips off, we won't know. If pressed, would I put my last dollar behind the Lakers winning it all? Probably. The upside to their offense is too high to ignore. But I wouldn't be surprised for a second if I eventually had to wave goodbye to that dollar. As is the case for any of the teams listed above.

I have plenty of concerns with the Lakers. Because the team is coming off a championship run, because space is a concern, and because we know how dominant they could end up being (as in, yes, "73-9"-styled dominance), you'll have to put on your big boy pants and listen to some reasoned thoughts about chinks in the championship armor.

Derek Fisher's (notes) presence probably concerns me the most. I appreciate what he brings to the sideline triangle, he can run the offense and spread the floor, but he appeared to be a sieve defensively last season.

The Lakers couldn't upgrade that worry during the offseason, and though Jordan Farmar (notes) can possibly bounce back, this is a big problem. Denying point guard penetration is the most important part of the modern NBA game, and if the Lakers are constantly having to collapse, you will see some losses.

And I don't want to hear about Kobe Bryant (notes) moving down to check point men. For one, Kobe's been pretty overrated defensively since some borderline dominant turns in the latter part of 1999-00 and the latter part of 2000-01. But most importantly, I don't want my best player (and one of the more profound offensive talents in NBA history) chasing around point guards at any age. Much less his age.

Kobe's age does bother me. He's 31, now, and has been into the second round of the playoffs every year save for three since coming into the league in 1996. Match that with his international play, and obsessive offseason working habits, and you have a pair of legs with a lot on them.

Will he play through anything? Of course. Will he probably be as good as ever? I'd bet on that. Could there be some tough nights? Could happen.

Remember, Jordan got some years off. Most of 1985-86. 1993-94, and most of 1994-95. And he's the Kobe template. The do-everything wing player, working mostly in the triangle offense. And when Kobe was battling it out in the Conference finals in his second and third years, Jordan was still out in the first round back then. Kobe played deep into June for his first title in his fourth year, and Jordan's Bulls were out in the second round in his fourth year.

So there could be a slide. If anything, it will be on defense, because Phil Jackson would prefer that.

This is where Ron Artest saunters in.

I didn't like the Ron Artest signing, and still don't. There's no way he'll be destructive enough to deny the Lakers a championship (if they do fall short, it will be because of matchup issues that have nothing to do with Ron's on or off-court stylings), but as a straight one-for-one deal for Trevor Ariza, I prefer Ariza on this team.

Understand that I'm not telling you that this is a destructive move, or a huge net loss. This is a minor quibble on a team that just reeks of perfection.

The Lakers don't need anyone else taking shots, and while I know and understand what Ron's place in the triangle is, you also have to know and understand that it will take a while for Ron to find his place in the triangle. Worse, even when Artest knows and understands his place in the triangle, history tells us that he'll prefer not to utilize this knowledge.

Few have taken as many crummy shots over the years than Ron. Since 2005-06, he's played some of the worst offensive basketball I've ever seen. He's also played brilliant, efficient offensive basketball; so the two tend to even out after a while. But in this offense, where balance is key and timing has to be established in those first three quarters, every possession counts.

The Lakers have the best center and power forward combination in basketball, and the best power forward. They need the ball, and every possession wasted while Ron Artest fires up a shot that has a 30 percent chance of going in is a basketball hate crime of the highest order. I worry about that.

The Lakers have Kobe Bean Bryant, and if Ron Artest breaks even one play a week that could chase Kobe out of the post with proper spacing and a mouse in the house, then he needs to be kidnapped and taken to an abandoned warehouse by some combination of Bobby Jones (notes), Bobby Gross, Robert Horry (notes), Rick Fox and Ron Harper. And that group, under the cover of darkness and utilizing a Ford Econoline van, needs to ... encourage him.

That's it.

This team's starting lineup includes Andrew Bynum (notes), Pau Gasol (notes), Ron Artest, Kobe Bryant, and Derek Fisher. Lamar Odom (notes), Luke Walton (notes), and Jordan Farmar come off the bench. Phil Jackson even coaches the outfit.

This could be a special, special team. I can't wait to see what happens, and in spite of what you've read, I'm leaning strongly toward the half-full side of things.

Prediction: 64-18

— Kelly Dwyer

Now that Kobe has won his first title without Shaquille O'Neal (notes), will he still have the same drive to compete?

The answer is assuredly yes. Bryant's work ethic is legendary, and the only person he truly measures himself against is Michael Jordan. Until Bryant eclipses what Jordan accomplished with the Chicago Bulls, he is not likely to rest. At 31, Bryant still has several good seasons left before his body gives in to age. With Pau Gasol still under contract, there seems to be no reason the Lakers can't continue to rule the West.

— Frank Hughes, Yahoo! Sports 2009-10 NBA Preview magazine

• But The Game Is On: "... even Kobe's most zealous supporters will acknowledge that he has some tread on the tires now. We won't be seeing too many high flying dunks as we used to unless he is in the open court, so expect to see the Black Mamba again this year. You know, the one that nails threes with a hand, literally, in his face. However, it is important that the Lakers find a back-up for Kobe that can learn from him and ultimately take over for him when he calls it quits. Is that guy Sasha Vujacic (notes)? If he is, he surely didn't show it last season. Simply put: the Machine was broken in 2008-2009. Vujacic went from shooting a career high 44% from three-point range in 2007-2008 to shooting 39% last year. His overall shooting percentage also went down 6%. If he has any ounce of a pure shooter left in him, this is his last chance to prove it before the Lakers are forced to make a move at that position." [more]

• Forum Blue & Gold: "God, it is good to be hated again. It's an oddly comforting thing for Lakers fans when the entire world seems to be passionately wishing for your team to fail, hoping for an earthquake that will break off Los Angeles and dump it in the ocean so that they don't have to hear about the Lakers again. When the Lakers are hated, you know they are good. And they are good — very good. Not only did they win the NBA title, they brought back virtually every piece of that team, and made a move to bring in a unique talent (and personality) at another spot. On paper they should be a better team this year — Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant are back to lead, with a more mature supporting cast. But they also will be a different team. Two things change the Lakers dynamic this year, meaning they will play at a little slower pace and likely be better on defense." [more]

• The Baseline: "he LA bench has always been something of a mystery. On names alone, it should be an asset, and yet the younger players have a funny way of failing en masse when they're really needed. Enter Shannon Brown (notes), thrown in by the Bobcats in a salary dump deal with the Bobcats last season. Brown got minutes in the playoffs that made everyone take notice — he was a capable scorer who could effectively handle the ball, not a bad asset when your team needs a boost — and then achieved cult status with a certain preseason dunk. Names like Farmar and Vujacic are familiar parts of the Lakers tapestry, but don't be surprised if Brown outplays them both this season." [more]

Led Zeppelin, "How Many More Times?"

I hate to break it to you Laker haterz, but there's a chance we could be looking at a run of titles for Tinseltown's top dog. As you may have heard, the Lakers are the defending champions. Of course, they're one of the favorites to with the title again this year. Then next year, they're likely to return everybody that isn't Derek Fisher, DJ Mbenga (notes), or Adam Morrison (notes). Bad news for fans of bad jokes, mustaches and Nicolas Cage (huge Lakers fan, terrific actor).

— Trey Kerby, The Blowtorch

The defending champs are loaded with talent, but that doesn't always directly translate for fantasy purposes. What does translate is Kobe Bryant's game, and he's a lock for another top-10 season, barring injury. While the specifics of his line do fluctuate from year to year, the overall impact is always substantial. He's doesn't have the ceiling of the true top options, but he's as solid as they come in the middle of Round 1. Pau Gasol was absolutely massive in his first full season as a Laker, particularly after the All-Star break while Andrew Bynum was sidelined. That's the risk with Gasol as a pick near the end of the first round — while he figures to be very good, he played like a third-rounder when Bynum was healthy in 08-09 and that won't cut it. Add in a high-usate Ron Artest and it's not hard to see how Gasol may get squeezed a bit this season.

Bynum is mostly healthy (shoulder) entering the season and is still just 22 years of age. Over the past two seasons, in a total of 85 games, he's averaged 13.8 points on 59-percent shooting, 8.9 boards, and 1.9 blocks in 29 minutes. The production will be there if he can just stay off the inactive list. Artest has long produced one of the game's most unique lines, juxtaposing elite levels of counting stats with a low level of efficiency. A move to the Lakers should be about a wash for his overall impact, with a few less stats being helped by an uptick in efficiency. Either way, I'd call him a solid buy where he's falling (Round 7). Lamar Odom makes the Lakers a much more dangerous team as a reserve, but it does his fantasy impact no favors. If this team stays healthy, then he'll have a tough time even warranting his current ninth-round ADP. Your view on Odom's upside should be directly tied to how many games you think Bynum will play this season. Derek Fisher is in an exclusive club of players that start consistently but have close to no fantasy relevance whatsoever.