Ball Don't Lie - NBA


As the NBA preseason marches on, Ball Don't Lie looks at all 30 teams, outlining off-season transactions, projecting win totals, spinning tracks, and much, much more. It's a fun, hot mess. Today, the Utah Jazz.

Last Season: 54-28 (37-4 at home); lost in the second round of the playoffs to Lakers

Key Players Added: Brevin Knight (trade, Clippers), Kosta Koufos (draft), couple more tall guys with a lot of vowels in their name (draft)

Key Players Lost: Jason Hart (trade, Clippers), Dee Brown (free agent, Wizards)


Kelly Dwyer's Endless Grey Ribbon: Deron Williams may be a few years away from his prime, Andrei Kirilenko may be a few years past his, Carlos Boozer’s a free agent and Mehmet Okur’s grown a beard. Doesn’t matter. This team has as good of a chance at a championship as any in the league, and I don’t get the sense that most NBA followers (paid, or otherwise) have an idea of just how good this outfit is.

The only worry worth fretting over is the idea that, oh boy, things might have to happen THIS YEAR. Because Mehmet Okur will be 30 in May. Because Boozer might do something stupid like leave for another team. Because Kirilenko might not be long for Salt Lake City. Still, if this does have to be the year, then Jazz fans should be fine with it. Because all the ducks are in a row and in proper order. Something like that.

Because coach Jerry Sloan has a reputation as a tough guy, the frontline is big, and the scorin’ ain’t flashy, the Jazz have a reputation as a standout defensive team. They’re not. They’re pretty solid, and would be a lot better if they didn’t give up so many freebies at the line, but where this squad really likes to bash it is on offense. They want to move bodies and get layups, whether it means Williams keeping a point guard on his hip as he drives into the paint, or Boozer diving through a double-team for a lay-in, or Ronnie Brewer working his man on the baseline.

And because the Jazz don’t run a ton (10th in pace last year), fans and scribes alike don’t tend to regard them properly as the white-hot offensive machine they are. They are. A white-hot offensive machine, I mean.

There just aren’t any offensive holes. The Jazz get to the line. They make three-pointers. They score effortlessly in the paint. The team has perfect spacing at times, and boast a series of players who can score inside and out. Have you seen Mehmet Okur yet? The guy is in shape. Great shape. Boozer’s been training since July, and he’s in a contract year. Deron Williams is limping now, but he’ll be the stud he usually is. And nobody scores 20 without having a play called for them like Ronnie Brewer.

C.J. Miles can score. Ronnie Price can score. Kirilenko can do … other things. Paul Millsap is an underrated interior offensive presence. Brevin Knight is wily. Wily!

The potential killer, as it has been with Sloan, for years? This team fouls like mad. And, like, one other mainstream writer talks about it. That’s it.

If some team was coughing up 19 turnovers a game while the second-worst outfit in the NBA was turning it over 15 times a game, the TV networks would be all over it. "The _______ can’t take that next step until they learn to stop giving up the ball." And yet, the Jazz hand actual points to their opponents every damn night, and next-to nobody is talking about it.

And it’s been going on for years! Through various Sloan-led rosters, unabated. This could be a top-10 defensive team if they’d just foul like everyone else, but the Jazz can’t seem to help themselves, even as we’ve been asking them to stop for years.

I’m not going to this year. They’re just going to foul away. It’s going to get worse when Matt Harpring and Millsap come in the game, and the opponents will be in the penalty by the eight minute mark of the second quarter. It’s just something worth getting used to.

The Jazz have enough talent to overcome this issue and still pull out the first championship in the franchise’s history, but dangit, wouldn’t be easier if they just did it … the easier way?

Expected Record: 57-25


Lolnbaz:


Who Wears Short Shorts? Dun Dun Dun Dun Dun Dun Dun Dun ...


Real Talk, Blog Talk (aka excerpts from other blogger team previews):

The Utah Jazz: "The one thing about this offense is the dependence on close shots & driving to the hoop, with or without the ball. Booze is solid inside, shooting above 50% last year. Brewer’s game depends on getting to the hoop, and he does that well (along with the finishing). AK has developed a bit of a jumper, it seems, but he’s also good at getting to the hoop (or finding someone there). Okur has improved his game and has shown a higher willingness to attack the hoop. Deron also attacks the hoop often, and has the ability to finish, even with contact. 'Sap has a solid inside game. Ronnie Price has the ability to finish at the hoop when he drives. And now with Okur, Almond & Korver able to light it up from outside (along with Deron, Price and AK & CJ at times), it’ll seemingly make it even easier for this team to score."

SLAM: "Yet again, the Jazz will roll with Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur, a funky mix of three dudes who have been All-Stars in their career. It would be harsh to say any of these guys are on the downside of their careers, but they’re not getting better or younger, either. Boozer and Okur can opt out of their contracts after this season, and AK47 is getting more erratic by the year. Basically, before these guys’ truly see their skills atrophy, or get involved in contract disputes or even leave Utah, this is the year for these three to play as much — and as well — as possible. If they do that the 50-win mark will be a lock and at worst you’re looking at another second-round Playoff appearance."

SLC Dunk: "What are the goals for this team? To improve their seeding for the playoffs. For two years in a row now they've been the fourth seed in the West but have had to open on the road in Houston. They've been able to overcome both of those first round series, but if the Jazz are to advance deep into the playoffs, they have to have home-court advantage. They haven't had that veteran experience yet where they can win on the road consistently. Until they do, they'll need to play their series at the ESA. The Jazz have as much talent as any other team in the league. There is no reason that they can't contend for the title. They have the offense, the drive, and the youth to match up against any team.  But a defensive stopper would be nice."


Jazz Bear Bike Gone Wrong:


Associated Wax: Billy Bremner, Bash!


Michael Bay's Twitter Season Projection:

michael_bay: The Utah Jazz are the elf no one talks about. The one that wants to be a dentist. Herman, Herbie, whatever. JERRY SLOAN IS NOT A TOYMAKER!
about 7 hours ago from web

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18 Comments

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  1. Andrew K
    1. Posted by Andrew K Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:23 pm EDT

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    You overstate this team way too much. For some reason, this team reminds me of Dallas and Houston of the past few years - not stylistically, but how -close- they are to being great. They're on the edge, and they're still missing something. They might even make it to the finals (well, not likely), but if they did, they would blow it just like Dallas. Look how outplayed Boozer and Williams were this summer on the Redeem Team. Kirilenko is getting old, Williams will always be overshadowed by CP3, Okur isn't a real center, and Boozer really can't compare to the finesse of TD or the explosiveness of Amare. And someone needs to tell this team, harshly, that their fouls are unacceptable.
    The expected dropoff of Denver will give this team a boost, but they still can't compare to the Lakers, the Spurs, the Hornets, and maybe even the Suns and Rockets.
  2. larry e
    2. Posted by larry e Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:26 pm EDT

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    ONE WORD! SHORTS!!! LOL !!! Who designed those things Richard Simmons or Suzanne Sommers? Bet they would go over awesome in Orlando Or San Francisco. They should give those things to warriors and call them the San Fran FANNIES!
  3. Chris M
    3. Posted by Chris M Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:48 pm EDT

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    Great analysis KD, couldn't agree more. If this team plays like it did the last quarter of the season it is going to be one of the best offensive teams of all time and win 60+. I'm amazed that people consider the Suns and Rockets to even be close to the same level.
  4. AllThatJazz
    4. Posted by AllThatJazz Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:34 pm EDT

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    my only goal in life is to have a season preview out on my blog sometime before next season . . .
  5. AllThatJazz
    5. Posted by AllThatJazz Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:34 pm EDT

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    also, Dee Brown was not on the team last year as he played in turkey . . .
  6. mcwelk
    6. Posted by mcwelk Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:14 pm EDT

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    Thank you for visiting me on the island of misfit toys.
  7. AllThatJazz
    7. Posted by AllThatJazz Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:34 pm EDT

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    sorry Kiky K, jerry sloan is now off the market as he got remarried a few off-seasons ago. he may still be looking for able farmhands though . . . (yes, highpoint of human culture is using the internet to carry on a conversation with bots . . . man, our caveman ancestors would be so jealous)
  8. Jesus Shuttleworth
    8. Posted by Jesus Shuttleworth Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:51 pm EDT

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    stockton had nice legs.
  9. b
    9. Posted by b Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:02 pm EDT

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    Andrei Kirilenko can be so much better under another coach. This guy's offense is limited, but in a faster paced offense he can do all the things he did before. He's been shoved aside offensively and defensively he is hanging out on the perimeter. This dude is a small PF. Not the bulky type, but a very quick one who can create havoc on defense if installed near the basket.
  10. Jay Monkey
    10. Posted by Jay Monkey Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:33 pm EDT

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    Jazz had a couple opportunities to pull off an AK trade and decided against it. I think Jazz fans would like to see him play elsewhere, AK would have been happier and had a couple more seasons of real Snap, oh, and the org would have the cap space to hold onto some of their talent not named Deron. An AK trade could still be in the works over the next couple months.
    The Jazz will once again do much better than most NBA analysts predict. How can a team be underrated for 15 years without SOMEONE noticing?
  11. UtesFan89
    11. Posted by UtesFan89 Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:55 pm EDT

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    There's nothing wrong with AK being on the team... save his salary. But he fits into the team well enough.
    As for Dee Brown... he was still technically property of the Jazz last year (which is why the Jazz had the option to match the offer sheet he got from Washington.
    I can't believe I got linked to by BDL!
  12. Aaron D
    12. Posted by Aaron D Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:45 pm EDT

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    I totally disagree with all the negativity about the Utah Jaz this year. Last season the refs gave the game to the Lakers just because of Kobe Bryant. This team is locked and loaded to suprise a lot teams this year. I am looking for a major upset this year against the Lakers. There main goal is to play better defense, and why shouldn't it be thats all the lack. Yes the also need to eliminate some of there fouls. I am a big believer in the Utah Jazz to go all the way. Its not to late for you to jump on the wagon/
  13. Henry C
    13. Posted by Henry C Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:36 pm EDT

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    AK past his prime and too old? The guy is only 27(will be 28 in 09). He is in his prime and he should get out of Utash.
  14. Henry C
    14. Posted by Henry C Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:36 pm EDT

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    My bad Utah*
  15. Travis A
    15. Posted by Travis A Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:56 pm EDT

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    I agree that Utah has been underratted for 15+ yrs. But you know what I've learned to accept it. Not really into the hype anyways, it's sorta like a curse if you ask me. I'd rather fly under the radar. I think the three major points they need to work on as a team are: #1 Find a way for Okur/Boozer to stop the big men inside. #2 Stop giving away pointless fouls. (especially in the first half) #3 It should be mandatory that every player on the team practice throwing darts at a picture of Kobe Bryant and the rest of the Lakers before they leave the practice facility. Theres nothing wrong with a little bit of good ol' fashioned L.A. HATE. lol. I know I've got some
  16. LAVAMAN
    16. Posted by LAVAMAN Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:41 pm EDT

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    It's simple: If the Jazz can even play a little bit of defense (and learn to quit fouling so much), they will make it to the Championship Game. This is their year- yes....they're that good.
    It all comes down to how well they can play interior defense.
  17. kyleijazz
    17. Posted by kyleijazz Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:55 pm EDT

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    reply to Andrew You overstate this team way too much. For some reason, this team reminds me of Dallas and Houston of the past few years - not stylistically, but how -close- they are to being great. They're on the edge, and they're still missing something. They might even make it to the finals (well, not likely), but if they did, they would blow it just like Dallas. Look how outplayed Boozer and Williams were this summer on the Redeem Team. Kirilenko is getting old, Williams will always be overshadowed by CP3, Okur isn't a real center, and Boozer really can't compare to the finesse of TD or the explosiveness of Amare. And someone needs to tell this team, harshly, that their fouls are unacceptable.
    The expected dropoff of Denver will give this team a boost, but they still can't compare to the Lakers, the Spurs, the Hornets, and maybe even the Suns and Rockets.
    Ok man you make some good points...however...you are way off on some others. Ok the chances of us making it to the Finals are slim...always have been. Ok as for the "Redeem Team" Williams and Boozer weren't suppose to be the stars of the team. And look at Williams stats from the Olympics, I think that they satisfied his purpose on the team. AK 47...not even the people in Utah want him and he doesn't wanna be there either so why even include him in the argument. Chris Paul is good don't get me wrong but put him one on one with D Will and he would get it handed to him. Over the past 3 seasons New Orleans has beaten the Jazz hmmm maybe twice. Look at the statistics from those games and Williams dominates Paul in every category easily. So don't give any crap about Paul always being better than Deron cause that is a bold faced lie. You are ignorant if you can't see that. Deron can man up almost any guy in the league with his tough build...including Paul. Just wait and see before you argue that Williams will never be as good. As for Okur...duh of course he is not a true center. How man 3's do you see Shaq shoot every year? Come on man, give me a break your points are obvious and worthless. Boozer sucks cause he only has one move to the basket and if that doesn't work he shoots a fade away and misses. Everyone knows it and sees it. He can't play D and probably will take more money to go play in Miami next year. He isn't a max player and the Jazz know that and realize until he improves he doesn't deserve to be one. And as for fouling...what is your argument? Fouls are unacceptable from this team? are you too scared to play physical with Millsap or what? I rest my case son.
  18. alextongo_2141
    18. Posted by alextongo_2141 Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:50 pm EDT

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    kyle jazz, you're right about Deron OWNING CP3. I've seen their games before (actually, only the box score). The only reason CP3 looks better is that he has a more complete line up. A defensive presence and occasional scorer in Tyson Chandler. An inside offensive weapon in West. Someone to spread out the floor in Peja. I don't know what Mo Pete does. For Deron, Boozer doesn't play D. Kirilenko and Memo should switch bodies so that they could be in better positions (Memo shoots 3's, AK is better inside).

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Ball Don't Lie is an NBA blog edited by J.E. Skeets. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

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