Ball Don't Lie - NBA


As the NBA preseason marches on, Ball Don't Lie looks at all 30 teams, outlining off-season transactions, projecting win totals, spinning tracks, and much, much more. It's a fun, hot mess. Next up, the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Last Season: 22-60

Key Players Added: Kevin Love (draft-trade combo), Mike Miller (trade, Griz), hair bands, Jason Collins (trade, Griz), Brian Cardinal (ditto), Rodney Carney (trade, Sixers), John Kerry (black magic; trade, Sixers)

Key Players Lost: Marko Jaric (trade, Griz), Lima, Antoine Walker (trade, Griz)


Kelly Dwyer's Endless Grey Ribbon: It’s been batted around for a while, so I’m hardly breaking new ground, but it is worth bringing up one more time:

Everyone on this team is 6-8. 6-feet-8-inches tall. It’s nutty.

The team’s go-to scorer and rebounder? 6-foot-8.

The team’s lovable rookie and post-feeder? 6-8.

The team’s designated long-range bomber? 6'8".

The team’s muscle off the bench? 80 inches tall.

The team’s lithe, hopefully do-it-all second year small forward? 6-foot-8.

The team’s bench banger and teller of fabled championship stories of yore? 6-8!

Purdue’s all-time steals leader and Minnesota backup to backup power forward? 6-foot-8.

Calvin Booth? 6-11. What a prick.

Having a go-to height isn’t the worst thing, usually. The second run of Chicago Bulls championships came with four defensive Dobermans (Jordan, Pippen, Ron Harper, and Dennis Rodman; who was listed at 6-8 but was the same size as MJ) who were 6-feet-6-inches and could all switch and cover four positions.

But a bunch of 6-8 plodders? I’m not sure. Technically, these days, 6-8 is undersized even for the power forward slot. Teams shoot over Al Jefferson all the time, and now he’s going to play center for long stretches?

I like a lot of the players on this team. I think taking a risk on Love over Mayo (the team didn’t need another 6-8 guy, but it really didn’t need another shoot-first hybrid guard in O.J.) and grabbing some eventual cap space was a solid move. Jefferson’s a stud, and it’s great that the rest of the NBA has caught up to what we were saying in 2005. And the team has heart. It tries, in spite of what often looks like a little lack of faith in coach Randy Wittman.

But at some point, things are going to have to turn around. The team had major issues trying Jefferson in the pivot last year with Craig Smith alongside him, and I don’t see why that’s going to change this year, in spite of Love being way better than Smith offensively. Offense isn’t the issue, so throwing out the fact that "we have Miller, and Love passing!" isn’t the issue.

And let’s make one thing clear, I am always in favor of forcing the other team to adapt to you. If an unorthodox setup is the only option at this point, then go with it, and make the other (better) team beat you on your terms. Not theirs. That’s what the Timberwolves are about to try this season, and while I like it, I know it can’t last.

Now, on to the happy stuff. The Wolves finally gave into the rebuilding process during the summer of 2007, two years too late, but soon enough to grab a 23-year-old beast in Jefferson who they promptly signed through 2013. Starting next summer, the team will have a fair bit of cap space depending on what they try to do with the team’s litany of undersized shooting guards (let’s just be honest, here) in Randy Foye and Rashad McCants. McCants can be an unrestricted free agent next summer, and Foye can be signed to a contract extension if the Timberwolves so please around the same time.

I’d be a little careful with these guys. Just because you drafted them, it doesn’t mean you should retch at the idea of losing them and getting nothing in return. Bring them back if the terms are right, by all means, but hold their feet to the fire. These guys may score a bit, but they’ve projected to be pretty average players overall; and if you don’t get it by your mid-20s (Foye is 25, McCants 24), it might be too late.

Jefferson’s going to be 24 years old around this decision-making time, as well, so it’s not as if time is an issue. The guy is going to be over 22 and 10 until 2018, so chill and don’t extend the contract hell the team has been under for 11 years now just for the sake of handing what seems like an up-and-coming youngster a contract.

This season should be an improvement. A healthy Foye and a healthy (or, at least, fully-rehabbed) McCants will mean quite a bit. Adding Miller for next-to-nothing will be huge for a team that had to hand minutes to Greg Buckner and Marko Jaric last season. Jefferson will only get better, Love will play well until he hits a Brian Wilson-in-1978-sized wall in February, and the offense will perk up.

I just don’t see anyone on this team making any stops. From one to five. They’ll blow by Ryan Gomes, blow by Mike Miller, blow by Foye and McCants, and shoot over Love and Jefferson. Corey Brewer has all the appearances of a stopper, but he’s just "kind of solid" defensively at this point, and his offense is so horrible that you hope the Wolves won’t have to resort to playing him big minutes. This team sort of reminds me of another Bulls team, the one from earlier this decade. Adding another young player and hoping for the best, but still not making enough stops to create a ten-win jump in the standings.

The win projection is a bit of a drag, but that doesn’t mean things aren’t on the right track.

Expected Record: 27-55


Semi-Lolnbaz:


"I Love You, Love":


"I know, man. I know."


Real Talk, Blog Talk (aka excerpts from other blogger team previews):

Canis Hoopus: "What are the team's biggest strengths? Outside shooting and rebounding.  ... the Wolves will be able to trot out a lineup with Miller, Foye, and McCants — three players who finished last season in the top-20 of three point shooting. Last year, the team often found itself with a backcourt triumvirate of Telfair, Jaric, and Corey Brewer. Even with Foye or McCants on the court, opposing defenses were able to sag off of poor shooting players like Chris Richard, Antoine Walker, Michael Doleac, and Gerald Green.  This season, the Wolves should be able to place solid rotations on the court with at least 2 outside shooting threats. This should open things up for Jefferson and Love on the inside."

Empty The Bench: "Rebuilding teams and small market teams only succeed when they make good use of their inevitable surplus of high draft picks. Kevin McHale has made only one great selection in his 14 seasons in Minnesota, and it was drafting Kevin Garnett. Since then his track record on draft night is the worst in the NBA. It started back in 1996 when McHale swapped Ray Allen for Stephon Marbury and continued without fail into recent years with draft-night decisions like trading the rights to Brandon Roy for Randy Foye and selecting Rashad McCants over Danny Granger. Let’s not even get into the Joe Smith fiasco that cost them five first-round draft picks (even if two of the picks were ultimately returned). In between those more publicized gaffes McFail has compiled a first-round resume that includes first-round busts Ndudi Ebi, William Avery, Radoslav Nesterovic and Paul Grant."

HOOPSWORLD: "While there are some really nice pieces in Minnesota, this just isn't a team that can compete in the West. Last year a big problem for them was point production. The Timberwolves were 11-38 when they allowed their opponents to score over 100 points last year and unless Wittman can convince Foye to put his offense second and everyone else's first they still could have problems keeping up with a high scoring pace. It's important to remember that this is a team still fully in the rebuilding process and simply being competitive is priority number one right now. It's going to be extremely tough for them though, because nearly every team in the West is more talented than them on paper. The same can be said for the majority of the Eastern Conference as well."

TWolves Blog: "I'd personally like to see the team turn the corner and plant the seeds of a winning culture. I'd like the players to stop having potential and start showing real results. I'd like to see Randy Wittman establish a clear pecking order and once and for all determine which of our glut of young guards are keepers and which ones can be sent packing. To sum things up, I'd like this team to show some unquestionable improvement and start heading in the direction of a team that's going to contend in a few years down the road. In an ideal world the Wolves would win enough to create some buzz and finally get the people of Minnesota interested in their basketball team again, yet lose just enough so we don't send our 1st round draft pick to the Clippers. If we're not making the playoffs, we may as well finish in the bottom ten which would allow the protection to kick in on the pick we owe them from the Cassell/Jaric trade. Finishing 11th to last would be akin to shooting ourselves in the foot."


Corey Brewer Tours Istanbul, Turkey:


Associated Wax: A Tribe Called Quest, The Love Movement


Michael Bay's Twitter Season Projection:

michael_bay: Just field dressed a wolf. With my teeth. After eating lamb.
about 2 hours ago from web

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18 Comments

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  1. goathair
    1. Posted by goathair Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:10 pm EDT

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    I know KD likes Tribe, but The Love Movement?
  2. Sith Lord
    2. Posted by Sith Lord Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:21 pm EDT

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    Next best off season move....fire McHale, Owner sells team to local buyer who wants to do anything to win a Championship, not his pockets.
  3. Leff NutZ
    3. Posted by Leff NutZ Thu Sep 03, 2009 6:48 pm EDT

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    T_Wolves are okay. Hopefully Witt doesn't get himself fired halfway thru the season(but he's one of G.Taylor's good ol boy's so that wont happen). MN, hopefuly can get a slight discount and keep Miller for more than 1 year. They should get McCants a lot of shots and get his PPG up so they can trade him mid season and find a way to get rid of Mad Dogg Madsen. I'm really not sure why he's in the NBA at at. (good ol boy maybe) But hey, should be an exciting season, with some great wins and heart clutching loses. But I'm a lifer, so go Timberwolves!!!
  4. ASGisChillin
    4. Posted by ASGisChillin Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:58 pm EDT

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    the love movement was solid, underrated even. it's got j-dilla beats and tribe in typical form. but on the basketball tip, this one is pretty dead on. my question is: if kevin mchale bumbles all those free agents and cap space will he finally be fired, or does he have some sort of dossier on the owner?
  5. KD
    5. Posted by KD Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:48 pm EDT

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    It's an OK album, poor by Tribe standards, damn good by other standards.
    It's a little dated, I submit, but so am I.
  6. Johnny Y
    6. Posted by Johnny Y Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:56 pm EDT

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    Jefferson and love are really only 6-8? why are the listed official heights always so conflicting. Do they just let the players tell them what they think their height is or is there actually someone that goes around and measures the players heights?
  7. Hoopsman
    7. Posted by Hoopsman Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:05 pm EDT

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    If I ignore the first part of everybody being 6'8" (they're not), then this is a half decent post, but I am a little disappointed in the fact that he only picks 27 wins. Heck we had 22 with a lot worse team last year. GO WOLVES!! 35-47
  8. Jake B
    8. Posted by Jake B Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:26 pm EDT

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    27 seems about right. As a Wolves fan, I could live with 27.
    The thing about Love is his passing and rebounding is great. He's not the most athletic guy in the world, but that doesn't matter. Gerald Green is athletic, and look how he's turning out. Love plays with his brain, like Jefferson, so I feel confident in those two.
    I think we'll be running a bit more this year. Love's outlet pass is there, and Foye/McCants/Miller on a break could be dangerous. McCants is undersized and seems to jack up more shots than anyone, but I remember reading a stat that said he was our most productive player last year...Al played too much; the good and the bad.
    25-32 wins is what we'll have this year. That'll be more than last year. My only goal is to get Rubio, either this year or if he waits, the year after. That's who I want.
    Skeets, I enjoy your work, but I was nervous about reading this. I thought it was going to be one big "lol"-fest and, sadly, it would've been warranted. Thanks for not taking the potshots that so many cheap bloggers take against McHale.
    We all have to realize that KG ran that team for over ten years. Marbury for Allen? KG was good friends with Marbury (who was actually good!) and the Joe Smith thing? KG and Smith are great friends. What about Troy Hudson? KG publically lobbied to give Hudson that terrible deal. Cassell/Sprewell? Obviously great for a year, but again, those guys were brought in to appease KG.
    Obviously, McHale has made some stupid moves. But let's face it...KG set this team back a couple years because McHale was trying so hard to help him win. I love KG, and am happy he won a title, but let's see what McHale can do by himself.
  9. rudy s
    9. Posted by rudy s Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:59 pm EDT

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    Until McHale is let go, this team will always be average at best, Al Jefferson is a desent player and mabey a decent guy, but hardly intmidates anyone or any team, Id rather have OJ Mayo tha Love, OJs upside is a lot higher than Kevin Loves, plus having another Kevin on the team is just too much, and my last point is being that the fans are really the ones that pay to go to games, buy jersys etc, I think the T-Wolves owe it to us to put a winner togather, sonner than later, should have kept KG, bought Allan Iverson or Lured Kobe, and what the Celtics did last year, that would have been us, and owner ship would have made a lot more money.
  10. Team T
    10. Posted by Team T Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:33 pm EDT

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    First off, Jake I will respectfully disagree with you that KG set this team back 10 years. Whether or not he was friends with Joe Smith, I guarantee you it was not his idea to sign Smith to the illegal contract that he was offered. Sure he may have wanted him, and rightfully so, Smith has been a productive player in this league, however KG didnt offer him that illegal contract.
    Also with the Cassell/Spree thing , the FO totally mishandled that situation. They offered the wrong guy a contract (Spree) when it was Cassell that made that team go. Cassell also told the FO he wasnt going to complain about his contract situation mid-season and then turned around and did it anyway.Those 2 were both on the back end of their careers and still gave us the most productive and exciting season we ever had.
    Hudson i cant defend, he did have a decent playoff series against the Lakers one year but I agree that was a bad signing. And its always easy to go back and bash trading Allen for Marbury. At the time it was a solid move, Marbury was an exciting young PG here and nobody knew he was crazy.
    As for Rudy above, saying Al Jefferson is a "decent" player is saying Brandon Roy is "ok" at the 2. Its a ridiculous statement. He was double and triple teamed several times last year. 22 and 10 at age 23 and he is decent?? Wow. OJ Mayo was the right pick, from the fans perspective. From the team perspective, Love + Miller OJ. The fans dont have to put together a contender. Your whole logic behind the AI and Kobe thing is flawed too but i have typed too much already lol. Go Wolves!!
  11. Jake B
    11. Posted by Jake B Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:26 pm EDT

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    Team T,
    I agree that the FO mishandled plenty of situations. You point out the Cassell/Spree mix up contract as one. I agree to an extent; we had Hudson locked up and he was coming off an injury, so we didn't know how bad he'd turn out. Cassell was an older veteran who has shown throughout his career that he can't be productive in one place for more than a few seasons. We were in constant need of a slasher threat, and Spree gave us that option. Granted, in hindsight it should have been Cassell and even back then, investing so much in Spree was a terrible idea, but I'm not so sure that's all McHale's fault.
    You're absolutely correct about Garnett advocating for Joe Smith's illegal contract. That is put squarely on the shoulder's of McHale and Taylor. However, the signing was an attempt to appease Garnett. It's probably not fair to even throw Garnett's name into that sentence, but unfortunately, I'll always look at the Joe Smith scandal, say "Why Joe Smith?" and then go..."Oh...Garnett's friend..."
    I wasn't against trading Allen for Marbury, from the start. Marbury did have three excellent years for us, and like you said, none of us could have predicted he was crazy. I was just pointing out that many people fail to realize this and continuously bash McHale.
    I think the Miller/Love for Mayo/Walker/Jaric deal was great for us. We got rid of so much cap space, and got production in return. I've made a note to write down how I feel about this trade, so if it doesn't work out, I can't blame McHale because I was in love with it.
    In 2007, I hoped the Wolves would get AI. In hindsight, I'm glad they didn't. That core would have had two or three years to get something done in this deep, strong West. At least now we can rebuild and come back strong.
    Al is a tremendous player, and saying he is decent is disrespectful. Go ask Duncan what he thinks of Jefferson. Jefferson's footwork is great. He may not be an All-Star this year, given he's silent, plays on a rebuilding Mid-west small-market team, but he will be.
    As a Wolves fan, I'll say this right now: I don't think Kevin McHale is as bad as people think. How hard is it to build a competitive team around a guy who is taking up more than a third of your salary cap to work with for seven years? Throw in the fact you play against Kobe/Shaq then Duncan (my opinion the greatest PF of all-time) and some hard Kings/Mavs/Jazz/Suns teams, and you're in a bind.
    McHale, IMO, has a couple years left to really get things going. He was, for a decade, either not picking in the first round or picking in the crapshoot area. Foye's production thus fair has been close to Roy's (per 48's) and Foye hasn't had a full season of starting. Plus, Roy is just a phenomenal talent and we haven't seen Foye. I'd like to see Brewer develop.
    Whew.
    Go Wolves.
  12. Team T
    12. Posted by Team T Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:33 pm EDT

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    It seems we both pretty much agree on most of it, Jake. When I mentioned the Marbury/Allen deal it was actually in response to the piece from "Empty the Bench" who was using that as a case against McHale, not in direct response to anything you originally said, sorry about that. Im also SOOOOO glad Spree turned that contract down. "I got to feed my family" greatest quote ever.
    My original post was also suppose to read "OJ Mayo was the right pick, from the fans perspective. From the team perspective, Love + Miller IS BETTER THEN OJ. Apparently the "greater/less than" arrows arent supported here. I fully agree we came out winners in that deal. Though my reaction on draft night says much differently i will admit.
    I think McHale gets criticized too much as well. Sure he isnt the best GM in the league, but we could be doing much worse. He tried to put together 3 different cores together to make a winner (KG, Marbs, Googs/KG, Brandon, Szerbiack/KG, Sam, Spree) but sadly they were derailed by either egotistical stupidity or injuries. I still wish that we could have gotten a bit more out of TB before he went down for the count.
    I love Foye, and the Foye-Roy deal doesnt irk me as much as I have seen it bother fellow Wolves fans but I dont see Foye ever getting the shine Roy does. I think Foye will be a damn fine player, Roy is just that good though. Its gonna be a rough couple of seasons ahead, but I havent been this excited in years.
  13. Da Slick 1
    13. Posted by Da Slick 1 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:09 pm EDT

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    wolves suck 4 life! go lakers go
  14. Jake B
    14. Posted by Jake B Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:26 pm EDT

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    Yeah, typical Laker fan comment. Please, go watch Gasol and Odom play patty cake in the post. You should be banished from ever using a computer.
  15. Jake B
    15. Posted by Jake B Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:26 pm EDT

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    Yeah, typical Laker fan comment. Please, go watch Gasol and Odom play patty cake in the post. You should be banished from ever using a computer.
  16. arnoldregan
    16. Posted by arnoldregan Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:57 pm EDT

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    love is not athletic, bull doggies. his pre-draft camp showed he was every bit as athletic as beasley, and far more athletic then kev durant. more of the white man's myth, i.e they are smart but not athletic. tell that to the ghost of pistol pete, who was as fast as lightening.
  17. AG
    17. Posted by AG Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:11 pm EDT

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    The wolves will be better simply due to the fact that they no longer employ Marco Jaric's broke ass. But if we're ever going to get better we need a real point guard (telfair ain't the answer), a shut down defender (maybe brewer, but I kinda doubt it), and a legit 7' rebounder and shot blocker (don't even think about bringing up Booth). I love Big Al and double M, but we need the pieces around our stars to compete.
  18. PAC
    18. Posted by PAC Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:37 pm EDT

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    Kevin Love, time will tell but I didn't think he would be a very good pro player. He's not big enough to play the 5, and not quick enough to play the 4. I see him as a contributer in the 10-12, 5-7 range for most of his career with an occasional good game thrown in. The Wolves in my opinion should have stuck with Mayo, now they are the worst team in the NBA

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