As the NBA preseason marches on, Ball Don't Lie looks at all 30 teams, outlining off-season transactions, projecting win totals, spinning tracks, and much, much more. It's a fun, hot mess. Today, the Denver Nuggets.

Last Season: 50-32; lost in the first round of the playoffs to Lakers

Key Players Added: The Birdman Chris Andersen (free agent, CAW-CAW!), Dahntay Jones (free agent), Renaldo Balkman and cold cash considerations (trade, Knicks), Sonny Weems (draft-trade combo, I think)

Key Players Lost: Marcus Camby (trade, Clippers), Eduardo Najera (free agent, Nets), Yakhouba Diawara and his three languages (free agent, Heat), Bobby Jones and Taurean Green (trade, Knicks)

Kelly Dwyer's Endless Grey Ribbon: Every time you think you know what the Denver Nuggets are doing — guess what? — you don’t know what the Denver Nuggets are doing.

This is probably par for the course when you have two general managers working alongside a hands-on owner who employs a coach that fancies himself a general manager. And while the Nuggets have had a nice little playoff streak dating back to Andre Miller-led team that made the postseason in Carmelo Anthony’s 2003-04 rookie year, they’ve never felt like a contending threat.

Well, scratch that. Partially. All but the "felt" part. We really had no idea how this team would turn out playing over the course of a full season prior to 2007-08, and while most of us picked the same old first round exit, there still was a chance that something special could happen in the postseason, when the rotations pare down.

Of course, nobody could prepare us for how well this team played defense in the first half of the season, how poorly it played offense, and then how poorly it did both over the latter part of the year and in its (you guessed it) first round exit.

You see, because most still don’t understand that pace matters, you’ll still hear the clarion call about how the Nugs are a shoot-first, defend-later sort of team. And, if you only watched the group from mid-February to the playoffs last year (as a lot of cable guys usually do), that might make a little sense.

But if you force your opponents to shoot 42 percent from the field, and cause 19 turnovers, you’ve done a good defensive job. Even if you give up 107 points. Know why? Because that 107 points is inflated by the fact that you, on offense, are sometimes using up a possession in seven seconds or less.

So because of the sheer amount of times you shoot and give the other team the ball, the points are going to pile up. Even if it takes them three possessions to get two points (think about that level of efficiency), the points are going to pile up. And if you’re going to tell me that an ex-jock or cable TV talking head is prescient and knew it all along, well, you’re eventually going to tell me that Jerry Van Dyke has a car that channels his dead mother’s spirit.

And because people aren’t watching the games, or understanding how pace affects things, the easy answer is that "the Nuggets don’t defend." Which was ignorant analysis. Which, because there is no god, turned into spot-on analysis later in the year when the Nuggets decided to stop playing defense just in time for the national TV appearances to pile up.

I understand that this falls to the players to get it together, but with George Karl around, things aren’t going to pull together. Other teams that underachieve at least put in a good regular season run before tanking. George’s team just didn’t have it from the beginning. And even though they piled up points (again, pace), the team’s offense wasn’t all that great from the beginning.

The team went one-on-one endlessly, Karl never put together an offense that was greater than the sum of its parts; but few noticed this because the Nuggets were still throwing in 111 points on some nights even as they barely cracked the low 40s from the field, while turning the ball over. Again, you shoot enough at Denver’s league’s-fastest pace, and you’re going to put up net points. It doesn’t say anything about efficiency. It just says you take quick shots.

And unless Karl and the boys dug in with some soul-searching this summer, that doesn’t figure to change.

Know why? Because Karl, Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, and Kenyon Martin have huge martyr complexes. It’s always someone else’s fault with that group, and they have a ready-made excuse in hand as 2008-09 commences with the trading of Marcus Camby.

Yes, the trade stinks for the Nugs, but that’s the way it goes when you have four (and nearly five, with Nene) players making way over eight figures a year, and you only top out at two or three home playoff games per year. Paying huge sums of luxury tax money for a first round flameout … yeah, you’d trade Camby for nothing too.

Denver should still compete, because their raw talent is that good. They also have some parts for a trade, if all the cooks can get work together on a deal. The team’s deepest position is also where its best player works — small forward — though Linas Kleiza, Ruben Patterson, and Renaldo Balkman all have power forward ability.

Meanwhile, J.R. Smith’s likely ascension (he may be a dope, but he’s an effortless scorer at this point, and the Ricky Davis comparisons aren’t fair; Davis could never score like this) makes Iverson expendable. Problem is, AI makes nearly $21 million this year. Yikes. Not the easiest deal to deal, even if it is an expiring contract.

If he’s in shape, Nene will help the defense more than Camby might have anyway. You see, Kenyon Martin’s a preening schmo, who likes the big show-offy blocks, so he can work as your weak side defender. Meanwhile, Nene likes to run and move his feet, which Camby wasn’t doing last year. Nene will cover and show on screen and rolls. He’ll follow his man out to the perimeter. You might be surprised. Then again, he’ll have to be in shape, and healthy.

As you’ve likely guessed, I’m not feeling this team. That said, the predicted win total has more to do with an improving West, injury concerns, and the possibility of an Iverson trade for pennies on the dollar. So I wouldn’t be surprised if they knock off 45 wins again and make the postseason. Anything beyond that would involve an attitude adjustment, and I just don’t see it.

Expected Record: 37-45

Lolnbaz:

Nuggets Cheat Sheet:

Real Talk, Blog Talk (aka excerpts from other blogger team previews):

Dime: "Overall, there are just too many 'ifs' and too many guys that will have to play out of their minds for the Nuggets to be a serious threat. Nene will have to play better than he ever has — like the man the Nuggets signed to a monster deal a couple years ago — to compensate for the lack of interior presence; not to mention he’ll have to stay on the court. K-Mart also has to stay healthy. 'Melo has to step up his defense and get his hands dirty in the paint. Smith needs to improve his shot selection and be the kind of solid defender his athletic ability allows. And while I’m never one to doubt A.I., he is 33 years old and has a ton of mileage on his body, maybe too much for another Herculean effort of putting an entire team on his shoulders for 82 games."

Pickaxe and Roll: "Many Nugget fans wanted Karl's head after last season, but the team stuck with him. Did the players stick with him as well?  The Nuggets have experienced their fair share of coach/player conflict in the playoffs and last season saw Carmelo Anthony yelling at Karl, 'Don't just sit there, do something!' while their season was going down in flames. After that Karl claimed he would coach 'his way' this season and so far the Nuggets have focused almost exclusively on defense although Karl did not go completely Norman Dale on them and conduct practices without a ball. It remains to be seen if Karl's way entails relocating slacking players to the bench, but to this point the players have bought in. If Karl pulls too tightly on the reins, it is not out of the question that he faces a mutiny at some point this season."

Hardwood Paroxysm: "Even though they traded away the former Defensive Player of the Year for some spare car parts and a roll of scotch tape, I believe these guys actually have the potential be a quality defensive team. Anybody who watched the Olympics knows Carmelo Anthony can actually play defense. He has lateral quickness. He has length. He can make the appropriate rotations. He just only seems to do that when he has "U.S.A." sown across his chest. The key to unlocking this defensive potential is pace. Denver likes to push the ball, but just as often as they take advantage of unprepared defenses they open themselves up to easy buckets. Obviously a slower pace wouldn't put up such gaudy offensive numbers but Anthony, A.I. and J.R. Smith don't need a wide open court to score: They are all dynamic half-court players. The problem with my analysis so far is I've made an assumption that is not necessarily true: I'm talking about the Nuggets as if Allen Iverson will still be a member of this squad at the end of the regular season. I just don't believe that to be true."

The Nugg Doctor: "The goal for this team is to not be content just making the playoffs, but to finally advance in the postseason. For five straight seasons the Nuggets have been one of only four teams in the league to make the playoffs in said consecutive years and are the only team to have not made it to the conference semis."

Nuggets Shock The World:

Associated Wax: Hall and Oates, One on One

Michael Bay's Twitter Season Projection:

michael_bay: I sponsor Linas Kleiza's Basketball-Reference.com page for $10 per year. How do you help provide their service? Huh? I'm looking at you, KD!
about 8 hours ago from web

Related: 08-09 NBA Preview