Ball Don't Lie - NBA


As the NBA preseason marches on, Ball Don't Lie looks at all 30 teams, outlining off-season transactions, projecting win totals, spinning tracks, and much, much more. It's a fun, hot mess. Today, the Atlanta Hawks.

Last Season: 37-45; lost in first round of the playoffs to the TD Banknorth Garden

Key Players Added: Maurice Evans (free agent via Orlando), Flip Murray (free agent via Indy/Detroit), Randolph Morris (free agent via NY), Othello Hunter (free agent via ... um ... yeah ...), Thomas Gardner (Scotts Miracle-Gro)

Key Players Lost: Josh Childress (Greece discotheque), Salim Stoudamire (bolted to San Antonio, stole eight Hawks' basketballs)


Kelly Dwyer's Endless Grey Ribbon: The Hawks were so all over the place in 2007-08, both on the court and off, that the 36 wins I have them penciled in for even seems like a stretch.

It might not make any sense to those who weren't watching, what with the team's young core and with the late-season exposure the Hawks received, but Atlanta actually started 2006-07 as a top-notch defensive team. In fact, for most of the season — while most scribes and TV pundits talked about the team's offensive firepower and Joe Johnson's scoring touch — it was defense that was winning games for these Hawks.

That slowed as winter thawed, however, and especially after the team traded for Mike Bibby. What followed were some offensive gains that, frankly, I don't think the team can keep up. Entering this season, are these Hawks going to have it in them to get back to that defensive mindset? Are they going to play the same hungry D that won them contract extensions (for coaches and players), or are they going to point fingers and look for shots?

And I don't want to hear how the Hawks "took Boston to the brink," either. They were blown out badly on the road, and won three close ones at home. Bravo to the latter, but the team still lost by an average of 12 points per game. That's not "to the brink." That's "flipping a coin and having it land on heads, three times in a row."

Worse, this is a thin team. The draft work of former GM Billy Knight and the summertime work of an ownership group that really doesn't like to spend money made sure of this. Sure, the owners and Knight did well to bring in Mike Bibby last February and sign Maurice Evans over the summer, but these are two players who will be in their 30s this year and are on the downside of their career.

And people are going to have to come to turns with where Bibby is at. His 38 three-point mark was very much appreciated last year, but the reason the Hawks turned it around with Mike at the helm last season is because average is better than far-below average. And going from Anthony Johnson to Mike Bibby means an improvement. But it doesn't mean that Bibby, who turned 30 last May, isn't anything more than an average point guard. Possibly a bit below average, once you factor in that defense. The game doesn't hold a candle to his name, at this point.

Reasons for hope? Players improve, year to year, until they're in their late 20s when they plateau. And Al Horford, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams will improve. This will help overcome the depth issues, partially. Joe Johnson will stay the same, and Bibby will drop off slightly or (more likely) stay the same. Replacing (and I know I'm oversimplifying, because they did share court time quite a bit, but you get the point) 30 minutes of Marvin Williams and 20 minutes of Josh Childress with 35 minutes of an improved Williams and 15 minutes of Maurice Evans will be a drop-off, though.

Acie Law, however, was shockingly bad, and I wouldn't expect much. For a 23-year old rookie to play that poorly last year (check out the stats), yeah, this isn't a guy you should be waiting for.

On top of all that mess, you know this Mike Woodson thing just isn't going away. He's had issues with Smith and a few others on this team, and both parties are probably pretty shocked that the other side of the conflict is still around as 2008-09 starts. Throw in what could be some lingering resentment over the Josh Smith contract negotiations, a new GM who might want his own coach, and the usual ownership mess … 36 wins? That's one less than last year, and that still feels like a lot.

One year in the playoffs wasn't horrible, it was worth it, and it was fun to watch. But that might be it for a while.

Expected record: 36-46


Lolnbaz:


Zaza Pachulia's Chicken Tabaka Recipe:

Name is from Georgian "tapha" — means heavy skillet. This simple dish beam with flavor used to be staple in Soviet times. I am surprised it don't make it here in Atlanta. Just like Italian pizza but better.

Directions:
1. Pat hen dry and place breast side up on locker room ottoman.
2. With Team Dime sharp knife, slice down the middle of the breastbone, to separate the rib cage.
3. Turn hen over and let Al flatten it with fist. Tell Al hen look like TJ Ford.
4. Rub hen with crushed garlic and dust with cayenne.
5. Heat cast-iron skillet large enough to hold the hen. Add butter. Lots.
6. Once butter melts put hen in the pan.
7. Cook skin side up over medium high heat for 5 minutes, then flip over.
8. Place a plate over hen and ask Speedy to sit on it. Cook hen over medium heat for 20 minutes, until skin is brown and crusty. Turn, replace Speedy, and cook for 5 more minutes.
9. Leave threatening voice message on Kevin's answering machine.
10. Serve with garlic sauce, rice, green beans and love.


Real Talk, Blog Talk:

HOOPSWORLD: "When the Hawks were faced with a potentially disastrous first round meeting with the Boston Celtics they could have folded. No one would have batted an eye if they had gone down in four games. Instead, head coach Mike Woodson convinced his team that if they pushed the tempo constantly they could make a series of it. That's exactly what they did. They pushed the tempo, and as a result pushed the series to the limit. They'll only be better in the open court with Mo Evans in the mix."

Andre Gomes: "This starting five has conditions to make a good job, but it will be necessary for the team to have a good bench, in order to be competitive. Even though they lost Childress in this offseason, the truth is that GM Rick Sund made an excellent work and added to the roster some experienced players, who will also be very useful for this season. To replace Childress as the team’s 6th man, the Hawks got Mo Evans from the Magic, who is coming from his best season as a Magic, with 8.9 ppg and 48.1% FG. His physical presence and shooting ability from the perimeter makes him an interesting player. The guard Flip Murray has also joined the team from Indiana, where he was a starter at the end of last season. He is an experienced player and besides being useful to rest Johnson and Bibby, he will also be an extra offensive threat (averaged 9.4 ppg last season).

The team maintains almost the same structure from last season. Mike Woodson has all the conditions to continue the growing of the Hawks, who won just 13 games four seasons ago. The Hawks solved the Childress problem very well by hiring some veteran player, who add depth to the team, knowing that they need to improve this season if they want to reach the playoffs once again. Even though it will be hard, the Hawks have chances to reach that goal once again."

Deadspin: "Josh Childress flew the coup in order to hoop it up in Greece. They tend to be inconsistent on the offensive end because they rely so heavily on streaky jump shooting (Johnson, their leading scorer, was 43 percent from the field in 2007-08). Weak three-point shooting. At times, they don't seem to give their full effort, especially on the road, where they were 12-29 last season. They might be thinking a little too highly of themselves right now, due to their playoff performance against the Celtics (who clearly weren't at their best in the early rounds)."


Associated Wax: T. Grose and the Varsity, "Nothing Can Stop Us"

Associated Wax, B-Side: Queen, One Year of Love

Michael Bay's Twitter Season Projection:

michael_bay: If last year was "Bad Boys II" for the Hawks, this year is their "Lionel Richie Collection."
03:01 PM October 10, 2008 from web

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49 Comments

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  1. Derrk
    1. Posted by Derrk Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:41 pm EDT

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    I wish everyone will stop saying that the Hawks basically "got lucky" against Boston. They won 3 games it doesn't matter if they were close or not. Same with on the road that was just lack of experience. They did better than the Pistons and Lakers both legitimate contenders. No one even thought the Hawks would win one game so to win 3 against the eventual champs that's not luck that's potential.I bet the Hawks were better than more than a handful of playoff teams last year because they showed their potential. They just got matched up with the best team and lost in seven so that's quite an accomplishment for a team that was 37-45. So stop hating on the Hawks and give them credit for a change. Go Hawks!!!!!
  2. QUE RICO
    2. Posted by QUE RICO Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:42 pm EDT

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    Thanks for the X , with out childress they dont stand a chance if anything the will be a first round bust ..
  3. Jeff
    3. Posted by Jeff Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:32 pm EDT

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    Pre-Season talk don't mean squat!!! Kenny Smith stated that the Hawks would be "THE WORST TEAM in the league" last pre-season . . I promptly sent him an e-mail telling him he was an idiot . . . with all the young talent the Hawks have they will be competitive . . . and could be another late season deal away from making another playoff run . . .
  4. Brandon G- Talkhoops.net
    4. Posted by Brandon G- Talkhoops.net Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:09 pm EDT

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    I hate to be contrarian, actually I don't, but here are a few reasons for hope for Hawks' fans:
    -Mike Bibby is in a contract year. Look forward to inflated production there.
    -Mo Evans is only a 2 point per game drop off from Childress, and he did it playing about 7 minutes less per game. Their Per 36 are almost identical except Evans turns the ball over less.
    -Speaking of Per 36, Acie Law actually checked in with 9.8 pts, 4.7 assists and 1.2 steals. Granted there were injuries during the season, and his percentages weren't great. He also didn't push his way to the starting line-up. Once Bibby was there, he wasn't going to. Look for him to become a bigger part of the rotation this season.
  5. Gbdup
    5. Posted by Gbdup Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:40 pm EDT

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    i am very impressed with how savvy of a businesss man magic johnson is. the guy is worth 700 million and all of his investment ventures have been A++ rated top investment plans. with how small nba salaries were back when he played and his ability to turn that into close to a billion dollars exhibits some truely savvy business dealings.
  6. scooter281
    6. Posted by scooter281 Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:08 pm EDT

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    Acie Law's year can be partly explained by injuries, so I wouldn't throw him under the bus just yet. This year, there's pressure on Marvin to improve and live up to that #2 draft pick potential, and hopefully Smith and Woodson can get along.
    If Woodson allows the Hawks to play up-tempo, they have a shot to improve - for as long as their legs hold out. I'm not sure they'll be able to run-and-gun for 82 games like they did in the playoff home games last season.
    I see an upside of about 45-37, and a downside of 30-52. Probablym they wind up about 41-41.
    BTW, the recipe from Zaza was pretty funny stuff.
  7. joshb914
    7. Posted by joshb914 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:41 pm EDT

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    This article is written poorly and riddled with fact errors. Give me a break.
  8. Subotic
    8. Posted by Subotic Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:11 pm EDT

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    What do you expect...and how the hell are you always getting FRONT PAGE NBA news on yahoo....yahoo must have cut the budget by 99.99% for their NBA covereage...you are a tool and your comments don't make any sense...
    P.S. Im a Raptors fan and I still think you are retarded
  9. Trifecta37
    9. Posted by Trifecta37 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:59 pm EDT

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    The Hawks can be one of the most dangerous teams in the league. Smith will always be a beast on the defensive end (in terms of tenacity), Johnson can hit the jumpers, Bibby will crack his shell of being subdued by other teams, Horford has a year of experience under his belt, and Acie Law can be a solid back up. Not to mention Marvin Williams can always help.
    I don't understand why Childress leaving makes such a big difference. He WAS their 6th man, but with all the players being brought in, it was inevitable he would be shipped off anyway. Look for the Hawks to improve this year.
  10. lawrence q
    10. Posted by lawrence q Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:40 pm EDT

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    It's good that the bar is set so low. I would be suprised if they dont improve to atleast 500 which is 41-41. I agree that they are not that deep, but 9 deep with quality players I'll take. Zaza,Mo, Acie,and Flip have all started at some point or another. Acie is gonna improve this year. Bibby and Marvin Williams are both gonna be evaluated closely and if after the first 30+ games they arent given the team what they want they should both be moved. Bibby is in final year you usually get a good deal for someone like that, and Marvin was #2 pick, a lot of teams would love to have him. Maybe a team like Denver gets so frustrated that they take Bibby expering contract and M.Williams for Carmelo.
  11. tupark82
    11. Posted by tupark82 Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:23 pm EDT

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    first of all, what the hell is post 5 rambling about? what the hell does magic johnson have anything to do with this article? secondly, KD is the hater of all haters. When this dude writes about something, even when he's complimenting he'll still include hate. It's unprofessional and starting to get annoying
  12. lrad50
    12. Posted by lrad50 Thu Sep 03, 2009 6:58 pm EDT

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    "3. Turn hen over and let Al flatten it with fist. Tell Al hen look like TJ Ford."
    LMAO
  13. jamesy
    13. Posted by jamesy Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:28 pm EDT

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    hmmm
    does the guy who wrote this biased column even follow the hawks?
    joe johnson, a "streaky" shooter at 43% was lighting it up after the arrival of mike bibby. someone should tell him to look at the splits of joe and josh smith, before and after bibbys arrival...
    this team is for real guys and expect them to finally make some noise
  14. The Devil
    14. Posted by The Devil Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:23 pm EDT

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    I can't help but wonder why everyone thinks the loss of Josh Childress was that big. The guy played 37 minutes a game two years ago and only averaged 13 and 6. He didn't make three's, and last year he didn't even get 1 steal a game. Sure, he shot 57% from the field, but he only shot the ball 7.5 times a game. Marvin Williams had better numbers in scoring, rebounding, and assists. Plus, Marvin hit 3/5 from the arc in their first preseason game. I'm not saying they're better for it, but the loss of Childress isn't going to hurt them.
  15. David
    15. Posted by David Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:16 pm EDT

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    Mike Bibby = Mini Me....and a very feminine Mini Me at that.....
  16. Mitchell A
    16. Posted by Mitchell A Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:22 pm EDT

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    This article is garbage and this guy has no idea what hes sayin
  17. shadowdog87
    17. Posted by shadowdog87 Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:15 pm EDT

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    I live a half-a-mile from Phillips Arena and have been a Hawks fan all my life. So you can call me a homer if you want, but I'm going to have to strongly disagree with you, KD.
    Hawks win 30.
  18. KD
    18. Posted by KD Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:48 pm EDT

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    Um, James, the guy who wrote "streaky" writes for another website. That's the deal with the blue link and all.
  19. J B
    19. Posted by J B Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:32 pm EDT

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    Love how all the experts who said the Hawks would get swept continue to discount 3 playoff wins against the eventual champs. Sports writers cannot ever admit their own ignorance. Coin toss explanation hella lame.
  20. david
    20. Posted by david Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:34 pm EDT

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    I think 1 win against the Celtics in the playoffs could be considered luck but 3 wins got the champs scared. The Hawks were definitely a better team with Mike Bibby especially when he was healthy. He was the right catalyst bringing an experienced point guard to an extremely talented but young team. The confidence they gained from their playoff run and their good showing in the playoffs should help these young guys exponentially. I see a better record and a return to the playoffs this year.
  21. Lagunero
    21. Posted by Lagunero Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:33 pm EDT

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    The Hawks did better against the C's because they matched up better. They have more physical players and more quickness at the 1 and 2 than the Lakers or Pistons. I still think they're gonna suck this year though. They are the Hawks, after all.
  22. ele
    22. Posted by ele Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:55 pm EDT

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    a faster josh smith is more dangerous than an aging elton brand. the hawks are a dangerous team thats for sure. but they'd still be on the bottom 4..
  23. Robby K
    23. Posted by Robby K Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:38 pm EDT

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    Though the Zaza recipe was funny, your absolutely wrong. The Hawks one three home games against the eventual champs. That shows they can hold their own at home, and since their a young team, they can learn to win on the road. If you can win 3 against a team with KG, the Truth and Ray Allen, your deserving of another good look. They have not one, but TWO of the best players in the league in Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, this years eventual winner of Defensive Player of the Year. They'll be at .500, give or take a couple games. They'll be the 7th or 8th seed, and will win a couple games, but get eliminated. Then watch in 09-10, they'll be beasts.
  24. david n
    24. Posted by david n Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:45 pm EDT

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    Why do u even write articles about the NBA, its clear u dont know anything about basketball and ur here for the laughs, which would come one in every 10 articles. Skeets doesnt know crap!
  25. David
    25. Posted by David Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:14 pm EDT

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    Hawks will win AT LEAST 40 games. They kept getting better for 4 years and they will continue to do so. Also, have u seen the improvement on Marvin Williams, Acie Law, AND SOLOMON JONES? Marvin is shooting THREES now THREES! and 50%+ in preseason right now! Acie Law has been leading the Hawks in scoring in the preseason! Solomon is alot stronger and looks capable of being a solid player for the Hawks this year. I bet you haven't seen ONE Hawks game (besides playoffs) so that doesn't give you right to say you know what the Hawks are going to become.

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