Wed Jul 08, 2009 11:30 am EDT

Almost a week after the news hit, I'm still not comfortable with the de facto trade that has Houston apparently about to sign Trevor Ariza(notes), with the Los Angeles Lakers pulling Ron Artest(notes) off the free agent market.
Even with both players making their hay as defensive stoppers, it's the offensive end that worries me the most, for both of their new teams.
The issue of shot creation, and shot allocation, remains my sticking point. Houston needs someone who can create shots, with or without Yao Ming(notes) on the court. Yao will be out, mind you, and Ariza, my friends, doesn't create shots.
The Lakers have all the shots they need, Kemo Sabe, and they don't need Ron Artest taking them out of their offense, shooting shots he that should not, making it possible that more efficient players are unable to do their thing. Yes, Ron Artest shot 40 percent from behind the arc last season. But he also shot 40 percent inside of it, and that's ... awful. That's just not good. While taking fewer than four free throws a game.
The Rockets, though, could use a guy like Artest. Even at that low efficiency, with no salary-cap space and few trading options (I doubt any team will take on Tracy McGrady's(notes) expiring salary before the season; that's too much money to spend just for cap relief in 2010. Best to make the Rockets pay him until February), Houston needs all the shot creators it can get.
And as bad as Artest was for them in that area last year, at least he can get a good shot off sometimes. At least he can penetrate the defense, even with a miss.
Sure, Ariza's much younger, cost the same and might have a defensive edge on Artest at this point. I'm not saying this is a bad move for Houston. I just think signing Artest instead of Ariza might be the preferable move. Ariza is just not a creator. And even with increased chances to create, as will be the case with both Yao and T-Mac out (sigh) in Houston, it's just too hard to squeeze blood from a stone with a usage rate of 15.6.
Look at what the Magic did to Ariza in the Finals. Time after time they'd swarm to help others, watch as the ball was passed around, collapse on Trevor at the three-point line and force Ariza to create on his own.
Sometimes the rotations were poor, especially while double-teaming Kobe Bryant(notes), and Ariza would get a good three-pointer off (he shot 41.7 percent from long range in the Finals), but when Orlando executed in running him off the three-point line, Ariza was useless offensively. He shot 35.7 for the series, making less than a third of his two-pointers while fruitlessly driving.
Artest in Los Angeles just means fewer shots for Kobe Bryant, and fewer shots for Pau Gasol(notes). Pau barely sees the ball enough as it is while Derek Fisher(notes) and Kobe fling away, so what's going to happen with Artest in town? Ariza averaged about seven shots per game last year for L.A., and Ron Artest won't.
He just won't.
He'll cede, he'll talk a good game, and probably won't be enough of a mitigating factor to deny the Lakers another championship. I don't dislike Ron, though I concede that he is a nutter.
He'll make them a much less efficient offensive team. And I can't imagine whatever defensive upgrade Los Angeles thinks it is getting replacing a stopper like Ariza with a stopper like Artest will make up for it.
The nonsense about "now Kobe doesn't have to guard the team's best offensive player" just isn't true. Kobe hasn't guarded that guy for long stretches since Shaq left. That's not a bad thing, either. I wouldn't want someone who has to carry a team offensively like Kobe to chase around a great player. It's just that the reputation is undeserved. He'll guard the tough guys, but not for too long. Ariza had them last year, Artest has them this year.
And the underlying unease surrounding this makes you wonder if bringing in a name guy like Artest will give the Lakers a chance to eke out of criticism for not bringing Lamar Odom(notes) back. If I have to read a "we think Ron can take some of Lamar's minutes at the four" quote next month, I think I'll have to break an expensive vase. The basketball gods just can't allow that.
Then again, they're allowing for a screw to be placed in Yao Ming's foot, so who knows?
Prove me wrong, Ron. Play off the ball. Don't try to meet it, every play. Set screens. Cut. Move. Don't ask for the ball, constantly breaking plays like you did in Sacramento (and, to a lesser extent, Houston). Earn that championship.
I'm not going to beg of the same for Ariza. Even though he's young, and will improve in all areas, he is what he is. Players just don't become off-the-dribble shot creators or post-up guys this late into a career. Doesn't matter when he entered the league, those spots aren't turning into stripes.
And if you think I'm overanalyzing, I think that overanalyzing got us into this mess. The Lakers didn't need a Ron Artest. They really needed point guard help, especially defensively. Beyond that, they needed a spot-up shooter and defender. They had one in Ariza. And though they definitely found the work that Ariza's agent did unsettling, sometimes you have to be big about it and go with what works. We know Ariza works in Los Angeles.
And we know Artest worked in Houston. Worked enough to take the champs to seven games.
I just don't see this switch working as well as it should.
Ball Don't Lie is an NBA blog edited by J.E. Skeets. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

Posted Nov 26 2009
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519 Comments
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Can't wait for the season to start. Let's see how this pans out :)
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I love Ron personally, but I will enjoy seeing a young running team this season, even if we can't necessarily compete with the big boys for the title this year.
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Now BRING ODOM BACK!
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