Ball Don't Lie - NBA


Almost a week after the news hit, I'm still not comfortable with the de facto trade that has Houston apparently about to sign Trevor Ariza(notes), with the Los Angeles Lakers pulling Ron Artest(notes) off the free agent market.

Even with both players making their hay as defensive stoppers, it's the offensive end that worries me the most, for both of their new teams.

The issue of shot creation, and shot allocation, remains my sticking point. Houston needs someone who can create shots, with or without Yao Ming(notes) on the court. Yao will be out, mind you, and Ariza, my friends, doesn't create shots.

The Lakers have all the shots they need, Kemo Sabe, and they don't need Ron Artest taking them out of their offense, shooting shots he that should not, making it possible that more efficient players are unable to do their thing. Yes, Ron Artest shot 40 percent from behind the arc last season. But he also shot 40 percent inside of it, and that's ... awful. That's just not good. While taking fewer than four free throws a game.

The Rockets, though, could use a guy like Artest. Even at that low efficiency, with no salary-cap space and few trading options (I doubt any team will take on Tracy McGrady's(notes) expiring salary before the season; that's too much money to spend just for cap relief in 2010. Best to make the Rockets pay him until February), Houston needs all the shot creators it can get.

And as bad as Artest was for them in that area last year, at least he can get a good shot off sometimes. At least he can penetrate the defense, even with a miss.

Sure, Ariza's much younger, cost the same and might have a defensive edge on Artest at this point. I'm not saying this is a bad move for Houston. I just think signing Artest instead of Ariza might be the preferable move. Ariza is just not a creator. And even with increased chances to create, as will be the case with both Yao and T-Mac out (sigh) in Houston, it's just too hard to squeeze blood from a stone with a usage rate of 15.6.

Look at what the Magic did to Ariza in the Finals. Time after time they'd swarm to help others, watch as the ball was passed around, collapse on Trevor at the three-point line and force Ariza to create on his own.

Sometimes the rotations were poor, especially while double-teaming Kobe Bryant(notes), and Ariza would get a good three-pointer off (he shot 41.7 percent from long range in the Finals), but when Orlando executed in running him off the three-point line, Ariza was useless offensively. He shot 35.7 for the series, making less than a third of his two-pointers while fruitlessly driving.

Artest in Los Angeles just means fewer shots for Kobe Bryant, and fewer shots for Pau Gasol(notes). Pau barely sees the ball enough as it is while Derek Fisher(notes) and Kobe fling away, so what's going to happen with Artest in town? Ariza averaged about seven shots per game last year for L.A., and Ron Artest won't.

He just won't.

He'll cede, he'll talk a good game, and probably won't be enough of a mitigating factor to deny the Lakers another championship. I don't dislike Ron, though I concede that he is a nutter.

He'll make them a much less efficient offensive team. And I can't imagine whatever defensive upgrade Los Angeles thinks it is getting replacing a stopper like Ariza with a stopper like Artest will make up for it.

The nonsense about "now Kobe doesn't have to guard the team's best offensive player" just isn't true. Kobe hasn't guarded that guy for long stretches since Shaq left. That's not a bad thing, either. I wouldn't want someone who has to carry a team offensively like Kobe to chase around a great player. It's just that the reputation is undeserved. He'll guard the tough guys, but not for too long. Ariza had them last year, Artest has them this year.

And the underlying unease surrounding this makes you wonder if bringing in a name guy like Artest will give the Lakers a chance to eke out of criticism for not bringing Lamar Odom(notes) back. If I have to read a "we think Ron can take some of Lamar's minutes at the four" quote next month, I think I'll have to break an expensive vase. The basketball gods just can't allow that.

Then again, they're allowing for a screw to be placed in Yao Ming's foot, so who knows?

Prove me wrong, Ron. Play off the ball. Don't try to meet it, every play. Set screens. Cut. Move. Don't ask for the ball, constantly breaking plays like you did in Sacramento (and, to a lesser extent, Houston). Earn that championship.

I'm not going to beg of the same for Ariza. Even though he's young, and will improve in all areas, he is what he is. Players just don't become off-the-dribble shot creators or post-up guys this late into a career. Doesn't matter when he entered the league, those spots aren't turning into stripes.

And if you think I'm overanalyzing, I think that overanalyzing got us into this mess. The Lakers didn't need a Ron Artest. They really needed point guard help, especially defensively. Beyond that, they needed a spot-up shooter and defender. They had one in Ariza. And though they definitely found the work that Ariza's agent did unsettling, sometimes you have to be big about it and go with what works. We know Ariza works in Los Angeles.

And we know Artest worked in Houston. Worked enough to take the champs to seven games.

I just don't see this switch working as well as it should.

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519 Comments

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  1. akademikz
    1. Posted by akademikz Wed Jul 08, 2009 11:44 am EDT

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    it hurts to read ur articles
  2. Ian De Bie
    2. Posted by Ian De Bie Wed Jul 08, 2009 11:48 am EDT

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    u make me ill
  3. Jinno B
    3. Posted by Jinno B Wed Jul 08, 2009 11:49 am EDT

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    you're damn right ü. Houston needs Artest more than LA does. I guess Houston's not looking to win "now". Coz clearly, Ariza's still a project, so to speak. So who leads the rockets' offense now? Aaron Brooks? hmm. let's see
    Can't wait for the season to start. Let's see how this pans out :)
  4. Ian De Bie
    4. Posted by Ian De Bie Wed Jul 08, 2009 11:51 am EDT

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    time after time, i read ur articles and they are exactly the opposite of my feelings. u r so bizarre, i wish u would go into accounting or door to door sales. u r a terrible journalist in my opinion, enough said... uggh...
  5. Michael Scott
    5. Posted by Michael Scott Wed Jul 08, 2009 11:51 am EDT

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    So KD doesn't like these two deals. And that's news...how?
  6. Everest O
    6. Posted by Everest O Wed Jul 08, 2009 11:55 am EDT

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    I hope La keeps Ariza
  7. gaborik10m
    7. Posted by gaborik10m Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:04 pm EDT

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    Billy Morgan, maybe youre just constantly wrong?
  8. Melody M
    8. Posted by Melody M Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:05 pm EDT

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    I would have really liked for the Lakers to keep the same team. Ariza was a starter for the team that won the championship. It just doesn't make sense to me that you would let him go.
  9. Hayesfan
    9. Posted by Hayesfan Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:06 pm EDT

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    KD, your thoughts are logical, but Ron was such a ball stopper... I am anxious to see Adelman's offense actually work in Houston. With no Tmac, no Ron, and likely no Yao at least we should get the ball movement that is part and parcel of Rick's concept.
    I love Ron personally, but I will enjoy seeing a young running team this season, even if we can't necessarily compete with the big boys for the title this year.
  10. Chino
    10. Posted by Chino Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:06 pm EDT

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    You dont know anything. I wish yahoo would hire qualified people to write instead of these amateur blogs.
  11. Anton
    11. Posted by Anton Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:08 pm EDT

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    Lol - KD is just negative entirely, it seems. Every article he writes seems to be not positive. But I agree that Houston needs Artest more, but then again Houston need Yao more than Artest, need Tracy more than both of them. Houston is a team that will die out before playoff time. And the survivor will just play as long as they can. Houston is one of the most injury-plagued teams in the NBA.
  12. Anton
    12. Posted by Anton Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:08 pm EDT

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    Lol - KD is just negative entirely, it seems. Every article he writes seems to be not positive. But I agree that Houston needs Artest more, but then again Houston need Yao more than Artest, need Tracy more than both of them. Houston is a team that will die out before playoff time. And the survivor will just play as long as they can. Houston is one of the most injury-plagued teams in the NBA.
  13. JG
    13. Posted by JG Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:09 pm EDT

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    Keeping the age difference between Artest and Ariza aside - Ron Ron is a better player than Ariza right now. Ariza was the 3rd or 4th option for LA all year and in the playoffs while Ron was the 2nd option all year after T-Mac went down and was the 1st or 2nd option w/o Yao. On a five year plan I would say keep Ariza but the Lakers want to win next year first. We'll worry about five years down the road later. I understand Ariza wanting to be "all he can be" - and he won't get that under Kobe or Lebron had he gone to the Cavs. You're looking at a Caron Butler situation with Ariza - he'll improve over the next few years, and earn his money but will never make the Allstars. History shows guys like him should accept their roll on a good team and continue to do their job to win. As a lifetime Lakers fan I'm not crazy about getting Crazy Pills personality (it feels like when we signed JR Rider a few years back) but I think it improves the team and keeps us on top of the arms race going on right now. And Trevor will get to find out his true pecking order in the NBA - just be carefull what you wish for Trevor!
  14. JG
    14. Posted by JG Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:10 pm EDT

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    Keeping the age difference between Artest and Ariza aside - Ron Ron is a better player than Ariza right now. Ariza was the 3rd or 4th option for LA all year and in the playoffs while Ron was the 2nd option all year after T-Mac went down and was the 1st or 2nd option w/o Yao. On a five year plan I would say keep Ariza but the Lakers want to win next year first. We'll worry about five years down the road later. I understand Ariza wanting to be "all he can be" - and he won't get that under Kobe or Lebron had he gone to the Cavs. You're looking at a Caron Butler situation with Ariza - he'll improve over the next few years, and earn his money but will never make the Allstars. History shows guys like him should accept their roll on a good team and continue to do their job to win. As a lifetime Lakers fan I'm not crazy about getting Crazy Pills personality (it feels like when we signed JR Rider a few years back) but I think it improves the team and keeps us on top of the arms race going on right now. And Trevor will get to find out his true pecking order in the NBA - just be carefull what you wish for Trevor!
  15. Dacus H
    15. Posted by Dacus H Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:12 pm EDT

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    LA still has weeknesses, and one was being "soft" which Artest will help in that area. Also remember the Lakers did not have an answer for Paul Pierce, Carmelo Anthony, or Lebron James and Artest will help there as well. Basically Artest is a better player than Ariza and they are gaining more than they are losing. Phil handled Rodman and he can handle Ron Ron. And if you think Phil won't pull Artest for making crazy shots then you're mistaken.
  16. me
    16. Posted by me Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:13 pm EDT

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    who knows, maybe mid-season both teams see that they did the wrong thing and might trade them back(is that even possible??) They are both Mid-level exceptions right?
    Now BRING ODOM BACK!
  17. Ken C
    17. Posted by Ken C Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:13 pm EDT

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    If I have too see another kelly dwyer post, I think I'll have to break an expensive vase.
  18. GoL8KrZ
    18. Posted by GoL8KrZ Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:15 pm EDT

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    Ariza can guard the bigger and stronger SF's in the league. Melo manhandled him so much, that Kobe had to guard Melo. You think Ariza can contain Pierce, LeBron, etc? All Lakers needed was a spot up shooter and defender, yes, but at what cost? This was about greed. Ariza insulted by the mid-level? Please. You are the 5th offensive option playing for the LA Lakers, and you just won a ring. Please, Ariza is an idiot.
  19. JG
    19. Posted by JG Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:15 pm EDT

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    Keeping the age difference between Artest and Ariza aside - Ron Ron is a better player than Ariza right now. Ariza was the 3rd or 4th option for LA all year and in the playoffs while Ron was the 2nd option all year after T-Mac went down and was the 1st or 2nd option w/o Yao. On a five year plan I would say keep Ariza but the Lakers want to win next year first. We'll worry about five years down the road later. I understand Ariza wanting to be "all he can be" - and he won't get that under Kobe or Lebron had he gone to the Cavs. You're looking at a Caron Butler situation with Ariza - he'll improve over the next few years, and earn his money but will never make the Allstars. History shows guys like him should accept their roll on a good team and continue to do their job to win. As a lifetime Lakers fan I'm not crazy about getting Crazy Pills personality (it feels like when we signed JR Rider a few years back) but I think it improves the team and keeps us on top of the arms race going on right now. And Trevor will get to find out his true pecking order in the NBA - just be carefull what you wish for Trevor!
  20. Peckerwood
    20. Posted by Peckerwood Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:16 pm EDT

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    Lol your fans our out today Kelly..."you suck you suck I want your face to rot off and then i will flush it down the toilet after I go to Pancho's and take a big fat crap." Haha...I hope you're wrong about Ariza. If you're not then I guess the Rocks are just hoping for a high draft pick to compliment Lebron/Bosh/Jesus in sneakers. Or not...they are definitely a scrappy team. I could see them scraping out 45 wins with that team....or losing 55. Who knows?

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Ball Don't Lie is an NBA blog edited by J.E. Skeets. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

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