Who Will Win?
Stewart
Tony Stewart: Tony Stewart is positioned fourth in the Chase standings, 84 points out of the lead in spite of having only one clean run in four Chase races. Despite a mechanical issue at New Hampshire, body damage at Dover and a speeding penalty on pit road last week in California, Stewart remains within striking distance with still more than half the Chase remaining. No issues, no penalties, no problems and the two-time champion will win Saturday night at Lowe's Motor Speedway and grab the much-needed 195 points that go with it. – Ricky Craven
Juan Pablo Montoya: You run up front enough and eventually a win will come. Juan Pablo Montoya is the only driver to finish in the top five in all four Chase races, so the next logical step is a trip to victory lane. His record at Lowe's is less than stellar. He has an average finish there of 27.4. But, as we keep finding out with Montoya, past results mean nothing. It's the now that matters most, and right now, no one is running more consistently. – Jay Hart
Jimmie Johnson: I have exactly one Jimmie Johnson play left in my NASCAR fantasy league, and I've been saving it for this start. Johnson isn't quite a sure thing in Charlotte, but he'll do until one comes along. And while it's possible that Johnson will suffer some kind of Chase-devastating wreck or miscue, it's certain that he and crew chief Chad Knaus will be completely dialed in and prepared for this race and the five after it. Betting on Johnson isn't exactly a high-yield play, but betting against him isn't particularly wise either, especially now. – Jay Busbee
Three keys to winning at Lowe's, by Ricky Craven
Craven
1. Clean air …: will once again be the theme at the 1.5-mile Lowe's Motor Speedway. Drivers were given a reprieve last week at California because the long sweeping turns allowed several lane choices. This week, the turns will be tighter and running out front will reward drivers much the same way it did Tony Stewart at Kansas just a few weeks back.
2. Pit-road strategy: Speaking of Tony Stewart’s win at Kansas, a key to Stewart positioning himself for that day's win was a two-tire gamble on his final pit stop. I expect the same type of strategy this weekend. The cooler temperatures (from racing at night) combined with a track surface still considered fresh, smooth and fast should support two-tire stops throughout the race.
3. Double-file restarts … have become a key aspect of each Sprint Cup Series race. There's the drama of anticipating which lane the leader will choose. There seems a greater risk for any driver spinning the rear tires or struggling the least bit transitioning through the gears. Then there's the added intensity drivers seem to present as restarts come later in the race. Double-file restarts are another hurdle drivers need to clear each week if they are to win a Sprint Cup Series race.
Top story line
Johnson
• Will double-file restarts impact the Chase? Keep an eye on this, especially as the race nears its end. We saw a big wreck following a restart at Auto Club Speedway, a track that is much wider and much more forgiving than Lowe's Motor Speedway. Don't be surprised if a Chaser or two is lamenting double-file restarts following Saturday night's race. – Jay Hart
• Eleven teams began the Chase knowing the 48 team would be their greatest challenge. Four races in, Jimmie Johnson has climbed to the top of the standings and has left little doubt they are once again in championship form. No room for error for those closest to the 48 team. Who among them can keep pace? – Ricky Craven
• Nighttime is the right time. This weekend marks the first and only night race in the Chase. And it's likely to remain that way for quite some time, as neither NASCAR nor ESPN have plans to add another night race to the season-ending playoff run. But how wise a plan is that? For nine of 10 Chase weekends, NASCAR goes head-to-head with the NFL, and not to belittle our beloved sport, but nobody goes head-to-head with the NFL and wins. So why not throw another night race or two into the mix? It worked for Atlanta. Could it work for one of the Chase races? – Jay Busbee
From The Source
Tony Stewart: "I think right now where we're at and how many points we need to make up, I think it lets us have a go-for-broke attitude and just go out and try to do what we did at Kansas and win races. I've always said, if you win races, the points will take care of itself."