Who Will Win?
Edwards
Carl Edwards: Pocono again? Ugh. Well, if we've gotta go through this one again, might as well go with somebody who can run strong here. Smoke won the June race, but Carl Edwards had the most laps led, and he's slowly rounding into his late-'08 shape. He needs a win or two going into the Chase to get some bonus points, and this weekend will provide the ideal time to do just that. – Jay Busbee
Mark Martin: I'd love to pick someone other than a Hendrick driver here – maybe Carl Edwards, who is bringing back the same car he drove to a second-place finish back in June – but how can you pick against Hendrick? Keeping up with the rotation, I'll go with Mark Martin, who's finished second at Pocono six times, but never won. – Jay Hart
Jimmie Johnson: With six races remaining before the start of the 2009 Chase, Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon are the only three drivers I consider locked in. This position affords these three the advantage of taking more risk, being more aggressive during practice and qualifying, and focusing entirely on the win (and the 10-point Chase bonus that goes with it). Although all three are terrific picks to win this weekend at Pocono, I say Johnson makes it two in a row. – Ricky Craven
Three thoughts, by Ricky Craven
Craven
1. Fuel mileage … seems to always play a role in determining a Pocono winner. The June race saw Tony Stewart endure the unusual and difficult process of coasting his car into the turn in an attempt to save enough fuel to make it to the end. He did and was rewarded with the win.
2. Pit strategy … at Pocono is also key as crew chiefs approach the race similarly to a road-course event. Because it takes nearly a full minute to complete a lap at Pocono, teams will focus on pitting even under green if they are inside their fuel window, knowing they will not lose a lap. The advantage becomes theirs if a caution falls, with all teams having not pitted losing track position.
3. Explore … during the early portion of practice if you had a good-handling car six weeks ago when the Sprint Cup Series last visited Pocono. This track has three turns, each with a different degree of banking. Teams who ran well when they raced in June can break down one corner (their weakest in June) and explore different shock packages, or spring and sway bar combinations, with the option of always reverting back to the set-up they ran in June if it does not work.
Top story line
Kyle Busch
• Prior to the season, speculation ran rampant that at some point during the season there would not be a full field for a Cup race. There will be a full field this weekend, but just barely as only 43 cars will show up to Pocono. Cue the speculation again: Will there be a race this season with fewer than 43 cars in it? – Jay Hart
• Can Kyle Busch recover and make a charge in the next six races to overcome his 14th position in the standings and avoid missing the Chase? It all begins at Pocono, a track Kyle Busch has not won at in the Sprint Cup Series and one of the few he has struggled at in his career. – Ricky Craven
• Nobody's paying a whole lot of attention to this, but if Kyle Busch runs poorly this weekend, it's going to be the talk of NASCAR. When one of the sport's best drivers is in real danger of missing the Chase, what's the cause? Multi-tasking? Bad luck? Evil pro-Junior conspiracy? Whatever, Kyle needs to get himself back in the hunt this weekend before it's too late. – Jay Busbee
From The Source
Jeff Gordon: "I think momentum is really going to be key just prior to the Chase – who can get it prior to and through the first few races of the Chase. I believe that is what's going to separate the team – or the top teams – that will vie for the championship."