Aaron's 499
Who Will Win?
Montoya
Juan Pablo Montoya: I really am going out on a limb here. But I think there are strength in numbers in this race, and when you've got a teammate who's a good restrictor plate racer that's real important. I don't know how much Montoya and Jamie McMurray love each other these days, but certainly they're two strong drivers who, if they hook up, they can do well. At Talladega, you've got to be aggressive at the end, and that's why I'm picking him. If he can hook up with his teammate and then do what he always does, he's got a shot. – Wally Dallenbach
Jeff Gordon It's gotta happen sometime, and why not Talladega, where Gordon has five wins, including a 2007 season sweep? He's been one of the most dominant drivers in the sport all year long, and eventually the breaks have to stop going against him. As long as he can stay out of the Big One that caught him in Texas, he ought to take the checkers again, at long last. – Jay Busbee
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: The biggest thing Dale Earnhardt Jr. has going for him right now is confidence. It's miles above where it was at the end of last season. Though he hasn't been to victory lane yet this season, he's getting closer. Combine his new confidence with his old habits at Talladega (5 wins) and you have the recipe for victory. – Jay Hart
Three things to watch for, by Wally Dallenbach
Dallenbach
1. The Big One: You're always watching for the big wreck and when it's going to happen. Not if, but when.
2. Which teammates are going to work together? If you can get three or four guys working together, they're going to be hard to beat. But there are questions, even within Hendrick. You know Mark Martin and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are going to work with their teammates. But it doesn't seem to me like Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon don't have a lot of love towards each other. It's going to be interesting how the Roush, Gibbs and Hendrick teams work together.
3. Bump drafting: How aggressive are these drivers going to be? With the spoiler, it's going to punch a bigger hole in the air, which means you're going to get better runs on guys in the draft. I think there's going to be a lot of pounding on each during this race. It will be interesting to see if this happens and, if it does, will it end up causing some wreck.
Top storyline
Gordon
• Will the minor spat between Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson roll over into Talladega? Better yet, if given the choice to help his teammate versus someone else, will Gordon give Johnson a boost? That, alone, is reason enough to tune in. – Jay Hart
• This is really the last test of the spoiler. We've run on short tracks, mile and a halfs and now Talladega. The verdict on the spoiler will be in after Talladega – if it was the right change. Losing the win will provide better vision through your rear window, and because of that I expect to see more aggressive driving. – Wally Dallenbach
• Junior Nation is like a kid listening for Santa on Christmas Eve, taking even the tiniest sounds and tics as a sign that the good times are just about here. Only now, it's entirely possible that they're right. Dale Earnhardt Jr. remains in the top 10 in the standings, and he's coming to one of his most comfortable tracks. If Junior could manage another strong run, he'd continue to quiet the doubters. But if he could manage a win, well, that'd send the fans into fits of joy. – Jay Busbee
From The Source
Tony Stewart, on restrictor plate racing: "I'm glad we're halfway decent at it, but it's still always frustrating when you have to rely on what everybody else does. It's not what you do. It's what you do along with somebody else who decides that they're going to follow you and help you. That's the part that frustrates you as a driver."
