Top 20 countdown: Carl Edwards

(Photos: Getty Images)

2008 statistics

Finish	Poles	Wins	Top 5	Top 10
2	1	9	19	27

The countdown
No. 20: Martin Truex Jr.
No. 19: Juan Pablo Montoya
No. 18: Kurt Busch
No. 17: Kasey Kahne
No. 16: Brian Vickers
No. 15: Tony Stewart
No. 14: Jamie McMurray
No. 13: Clint Bowyer
No. 12: David Ragan
No. 11: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
No. 10: Denny Hamlin
No. 9: Matt Kenseth
No. 8: Jeff Burton
No. 7: Greg Biffle
No. 6: Mark Martin
No. 5: Jeff Gordon
No. 4: Kevin Harvick
No. 3: Carl Edwards
No. 3: Revealed Friday

2008 finish: 2nd

2009 outlook: Nothing but blue skies for the No. 99 team. Carl Edwards won nine races in 2008, and it’s a testament to his dominance that nobody even remembers the little cheating incident when he “lost” his oil lid early in the year at Las Vegas.

You want proof that Edwards has arrived? Take a look at 2008’s last four races. Edwards had to absolutely tear it up through the Chase in order to even have a prayer of winning, and here’s how he finished in those last four races: 1, 1, 4, 1. That’s rising to the occasion on a Tiger Woods/Michael Jordan level.

Edwards is the trendy pick for the 2009 Cup championship, and with a finish like that, it’s easy to see why. Thing is, Edwards still has some black marks against him, starting with his tendency to get reckless. Whether it was causing a huge wreck in Talladega that, as it turned out, cost him a real shot at the Cup or staging a “video game move” in Kansas that could have knocked both himself and Jimmie Johnson out of the race, Edwards takes the kind of chances that don’t always befit a champion.

Aggression is one thing, recklessness another, and Edwards always seems to be dancing along that line.

Still, everything is setting up well for Edwards to make a serious run at the Cup. With the right mix of luck for him and a little bit of hardship for Johnson and Kyle Busch, Edwards will be in the mix right all the way to Homestead.

What you need to know: Sixteen. That’s the number of points Edwards would have won the Cup by under the old pre-Chase format. In real-world terms, that’s as irrelevant as the fact that Edwards’ No. 99 is more than double Johnson’s No. 48. But don’t think for a second that Johnson isn’t aware of how narrow his victory in 2008 ended up being – or that Edwards doesn’t know how close he came.