Chase breakdown

Denny Hamlin made a statement by winning at Richmond. So did Brian Vickers, who wasn't supposed to race his way in at a track where he hasn't been very good, but did.

Kyle Busch is out. So is Matt Kenseth.

And leading the way into the 2009 Chase for the Sprint Cup is a 50-year-old who at this time a year ago was retired.

Here is a look at the 12 drivers who will vie for this year's championship:

1. Mark Martin (5,040 points): Trending:

Upward

Under pressure just to make the Chase for the past four months, Martin can actually rest easier now. One advantage he should have over the field (besides a 10-point lead) is a team that is battle tested. Because Martin has been on the bubble, his team has been in playoff mode since early May. Next Sunday's race in New Hampshire should be a breeze compared to what they've been going through.

2. Tony Stewart (5,030 points): Trending

Downward

Ten straight top-10 finishes, which Stewart recorded from June 7 to Aug.10, would easily be enough to win the title. But Stewart hasn't cracked the top 10 since his win at Watkins Glen a month ago. What was shaping up to be a two-man battle for the title between Stewart and Jimmie Johnson has opened up. Stewart will be a contender, but he can't be considered the favorite.

3. Jimmie Johnson (5,030 points): Trending:

Upward

Despite some recent struggles – a broken axle at Atlanta, running out of gas at Michigan – the three-time defending champion still has to be considered the favorite. Johnson and Co. know how to manage the 10-race Chase better than anyone. That's inarguable. And don't think the pressure of winning four straight will get to Johnson. He's never succumbed to it before, so there's no reason to think he will now.

4. Denny Hamlin (5,020 points): Trending

Upward

No driver has more momentum entering the Chase than Hamlin. Over the past three months, he's gone from the forgotten man on his own team to solid title contender. Hamlin thrives on flat tracks, which is exactly what New Hampshire Motor Speedway is. That race will be his opportunity to set a tone for the entire playoff.

"We're the ones to beat right now," Hamlin declared before his win in Richmond. "We're the only ones that can beat ourselves."

5. Kasey Kahne (5,020 points): Trending

Upward

The season is already a success for Kahne. With so much turmoil going on prior to the season with the merger between Gillett Evernham Motorsports and Petty Enterprises, expectations were low for Kahne. Winning one race wasn't shocking, but his second win two weeks ago at Atlanta was. And now a berth in the Chase is just icing on the cake. Kahne may not have the equipment under him to challenge for the title, but that team does a lot with a little.

6. Jeff Gordon (5,010 points): Trending:

Upward

Gordon and crew chief Steve Letarte have shown an amazing ability to take an ill-handling car, work on it during a race and somehow salvage a top-10 finish. Problem is they tend to spend a ton of time in the salvation business, which doesn't leave them a lot of time to focus on winning. If Gordon is to win title No. 5, he has to be able to flip-flop his in-race focus from the former to the latter. He did that at Richmond. He needs 10 more just like it.

7. Kurt Busch (5,010 points): Trending

Downward

Earlier this season, Johnson said the driver he was most worried about was Kurt Busch. That can't be the case anymore. Like his younger brother, Busch has been on a roller coaster season. Since May, he's recorded back-to-back top-10 finishes only twice, a stat that doesn't bode well for making a run in a 10-race playoff. On top of all this, Busch has to deal with knowing that at season's end he will be losing crew chief Pat Tryson. He wound up second at Richmond. Still, losing a crew chief can't be good for any driver, especially not one with an already fragile psyche.

7. Brian Vickers (5,010 points): Trending

Upward

He was already the hottest driver in the sport before racing his way into the Chase, so Vickers has to be riding a high heading to New Hampshire. He's not going to be anyone's pick to win the title (not here either), but – BUT – no driver has scored more points over the last two months than Vickers. He has to be given consideration for that.

9. Carl Edwards (5,000 points): Trending

Downward

Remember when Edwards was the consensus pick to end Johnson's reign atop the NASCAR world? If that seems like a lifetime ago, it's not only because it was, but because Edwards hasn't been a front-runner for a while.

He's yet to win a race this season, has finished second only once and has led just 159 laps all season. Oh, and he goes into the Chase with a broken right foot. On the plus side, Edwards insists he's had cars good enough to win. He could have won at both Talladega and Pocono, and looked solid two weeks ago at Atlanta before a mechanical failure ended his day early. Still, it's hard to believe the last 10 races will be dramatically different than the first 26.

10. Ryan Newman (5,000 points): Trending

Downward

Newman's season is a success just for getting into the Chase. Not only has it been four years since he made the playoff, but the transition from Penske Racing to Stewart-Haas Racing has been smoother than anyone predicted. If Newman can recapture some of the magic he had in an 11-race stretch between March and June, he could work his way into a top-five finish in the standings.

12. Juan Pablo Montoya (5,000 points): Trending

Upward

JPM heads into the Chase with all the momentum in the world. No one predicted he would make the playoff, so just being there is a win. The problem for Montoya is that his best tracks are behind him. Of the 10 Chase tracks, he has an average finish of better than 20th at only two – Martinsville (12.6) and Talladega (18.6). The 2009 Chase will be a learning experience for Montoya, who will have greater expectations come 2010.

12. Greg Biffle (5,000 points): Trending

Downward

Expectations are low for Biffle. Then again, they weren't very high a year ago, either, when he entered the Chase winless. Then he went out, won the first two playoff races and rode that wave to a third-place finish in the standings. Unfortunately for Biffle, the circumstances are quite different this season. Roush Fenway hasn't been nearly as good in 2009 as they were heading into last year's Chase. Biffle's going to have a hard time overcoming that disadvantage.

Wednesday: Predictions