Halfway there
With race No. 13 in the books, Cup teams have reached the halfway point of the "regular season," which is followed by the 10-race Chase for the Nextel Cup.
Several teams have established themselves as solid contenders to make the Chase, while a handful stand just outside with a decent shot of getting in to the top 10 by Richmond.
Then there are the teams whose chances of making the Chase are slim to none, barring some kind of miracle.
The following is a look at the drivers already in the top 10 and other teams trying to work their way into Chase contention.
Top 10
 Johnson |
1. Jimmie Johnson: Three wins, one pole, seven top-fives, 10 top-10s
Every week the No. 48 walks and talks like a championship team. Even losing its crew chief for the start of the season hasn't slowed Johnson and Co. down. They thrive on adversity, of which they've seen more than their share this season. With Johnson's first Daytona 500 win under their belts, Johnson, Chad Knaus and the gang are, at the moment, the odds-on favorites for the title in '06.
Chances of making Chase: Lock
 Kenseth |
2. Matt Kenseth (-74 pts): Two wins, no poles, eight top-fives, nine top-10s
Last year's slow start didn't seem to hurt this team, as it rallied to make the Chase. But bad luck during the Chase put the 17 out of contention midway through. This season, the Robbie Reiser-led crew has had a few off weekends when they missed the mark, but the team has always been able to rebound, mainly because Kenseth is one of those rare drivers who can muscle a bad car around the race track. Right now, this is the top team in the Roush stable.
Chances of making Chase: Lock
 Martin |
3. Mark Martin (-216 pts): No wins, no poles, two top-fives, eight top-10s
Mr. Consistency has been uncharacteristically aggressive this season, either because this is his final year in Cup cars or because he's spending more time racing in the ultra-aggressive Craftsman Truck Series. Whatever the reason, Martin continues to show the kind of driving ability that gets top-10 finishes but not that many wins. Still, consistency is what earns championships, and this team is consistent. Martin and Co. should be there in the fall, baring any injuries to Martin while he's "having fun" racing the trucks.
Chances of making Chase: Lock
 Junior |
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (-282 pts) One win, no poles, four top-fives, six top-10s
Earnhardt Jr. could end up the comeback story of the year. Following a miserable season in '05 – "Even Elvis made bad movies," Junior once said – Earnhardt has delivered solid runs at Atlanta, Martinsville and at Richmond, where he won. All are Chase tracks. He and crew chief Tony Eury Jr. have one of those special relationships that is a key to winning at the Nextel Cup level. Their only weak spot is their lack of consistency. Collecting more top-10s and fewer top-20 finishes is the missing link to stardom for this DEI squad.
Chances of making Chase: Lock
 Stewart |
5. Tony Stewart (-293 pts): One win, one pole, six top-fives, seven top-10s
Of course, now that Stewart, Greg Zipadelli and Co. have had their best season start ever, Stewart injures himself and puts a slight twist on what otherwise was a nearly flawless 2006. Stewart has driven hurt before – earlier this season he had a serious spill in a sprint car – so there isn't much chance his current injury will affect him in the points too much. He may drop a place or two, but there's no way he'll fall out of the top 10. Every race there are a handful of teams that always are on the "could win" list. The No. 20 Home Depot Chevy team is one of them.
Chances of making Chase: Lock
 Kahne |
6. Kasey Kahne (-296 pts) Three wins, three poles, five top-fives, eight top-10s
Another finalist for the Comeback Kid award, Kahne finally has been paired with a crew chief who understands his talents and is able to give the young driver a comfortable car on a regular basis. This team nearly had to write off the month of May (four consecutive races with no finishes higher than 14th), but they rebounded quite remarkably, winning the Coca-Cola 600 and following it up with a top-10 at Dover. Kahne is out to show the world that he's more than just a pretty face, and he's got the right foot and a skillful pair of hands to prove it.
Chances of making Chase: Lock
 Burton |
7. Jeff Burton (-396 pts) No wins, one pole, three top fives, eight top-10s
While many had written Burton off after he left Roush, he now has become the elder statesman for the trio of ultra-competitive drivers that has resurrected Richard Childress Racing. Burton has taken this role seriously, and while he serves as a mentor to rookie Clint Bowyer, his competitive prowess has pushed teammate Kevin Harvick to heights he never would have obtained otherwise. All the while, this team has quietly delivered seven top-10s in the last eight races. Burton could be a real sleeper for the championship.
Chances of making Chase: Strong
 Harvick |
8. Kevin Harvick (-420 pts): One win, no poles, five top-fives, six top-10s
Barring some unforeseen event, Harvick should win at least one title this season – the Busch Series championship. But can he win two titles in one year? One big hurdle looms ahead. Over the next two months, there are several weekends when Harvick will not be able to practice his Cup car on Saturday while he's off Busch racing. Then there is the added travel. Not a big deal, perhaps, but two factors to consider nonetheless. A healthy dose of consistency would help this team's chances, as well.
Chances of making Chase: Strong
 Gordon |
9. Jeff Gordon (-428 pts) No wins, no poles, four top-fives, five top-10s
This team has had more mediocre weeks than good ones this season. Gordon has admitted that he struggles with the new, softer front-end setups being used by nearly every team. Still, he's one of a handful of drivers who can drive a bad car and he's had more than his share of them the past two years. You can never count this team out. Gordon has slipped in the standings the past few weeks and he may even fall out of the top 10 during the summer, but it's almost impossible to imagine this group not making the Chase two years in a row.
Chances of making Chase: Decent
 Busch |
10. Kyle Busch (-439 pts): No wins, one pole, four top-fives, seven top-10s
When this team is good, it is very good. When it's bad, the young Busch takes it personally. Sometimes that is a good thing, sometimes there are repercussions. Perhaps one of the most talented young drivers to come to the Cup series in a decade, Busch sometimes shows a lack of patience – a sure sign of youth. That alone could hurt his chances down the stretch. As with most teams, this group needs to work on consistency. Once Busch and Co. get that figured out …
Chances of making Chase: Decent
The rest
11. Denny Hamlin: A win in the Budweiser Shootout was a heady start to the season for this young driver, but reality set in soon thereafter, and his first points race top-10 didn't come until Texas in April. When the series revisits tracks later this year, Hamlin will get much, much better.
Chances of making Chase: Long shot
12. Greg Biffle: This team has had the kind of year that tests resolve. Fortunately for them, Biffle, Doug Richert and Co. don't give up easily. A repeat win at Darlington was the turning point for this Roush squad. They've gone from 23rd to 12th in points since Talladega – an impressive jump.
Chances of making Chase: Strong
13. Casey Mears: What's wrong with this picture? Mears was on everyone's list of Chase contenders early this season, but the bottom fell out after Las Vegas. Now with the distraction of not knowing where he'll be racing next season, Mears doesn't look to be Chase material.
Chances of making Chase: Gone
14. Carl Edwards: Last year, Edwards started off hot and stayed that way. This year, he's had to battle back. He seems to thrive on it. As with Harvick, the next two months of extra travel for Edwards to race in the Busch Series may take its toll on this team.
Chances of making Chase: Strong
15. Jamie McMurray: After signing a big contract and moving to Roush Racing – with only one Nextel Cup race win on his resume – this isn't shaping up to be a Chase season for McMurray. Right now this team is just looking for a few more top-10 finishes.
Chances of making Chase: Long shot
16. Clint Bowyer: Rookie Bowyer is still figuring out how to race on the Cup level. He's got a great teacher in Burton, and a race win this season isn't out of the question.
Chances of making Chase: Long shot
17. Dale Jarrett: 2006 can best be described as Jarrett's contractual obligation season.
Chances of making Chase: Gone
18. Kurt Busch: A new team, a new car and a new look. This will be a good year for Busch, but don't expect it to be a Chase year.
Chances of making Chase: Gone
19. Elliott Sadler: Will someone please throw this guy a life preserver?
Chances of making Chase: Gone
20. Ryan Newman: Right now, a race win would be as good as making the Chase for this squad.
Chances of making Chase: Gone
Teams not in the top 20 at this stage of the game are just racing for paychecks.
Historically, the top 10 leaving Atlanta is a fairly accurate snapshot of the 10 making the Chase. There is no reason to think that this year will be dramatically different.
