From the Marbles - NASCAR

From the Marbles

Thu Nov 12, 2009 9:29 am EST

How Mark Martin could still win the Sprint Cup

By Jay Busbee

Continuing our "please-oh-please-oh-please" series on the final races of the Chase, we focus on how Mark Martin (or someone else) could take the Cup away from Jimmie Johnson. The last couple weeks, we've talked about how Johnson could lose, so let's be more positive today, shall we?

With two races left, Jimmie Johnson's closest pursuers are Martin (73 points back), Jeff Gordon (112 points back), Kurt Busch (171 points back) and Tony Stewart (178 points back). So let's break down how this could go, using this points system as a guide. 

If Johnson averages a fourth-place finish, the Chase is over. Nobody can catch him.

If Johnson averages a fifth-place finish, Martin would have to win both races and lead the most laps in both. Nobody else can catch him.

If Johnson averages a 10th-place finish, Martin would have to finish first in one race and second in the other, but wouldn't need to lead either in laps. Jeff Gordon would have to win both races and lead the most laps in both. Busch and Stewart couldn't win.

If Johnson averages a 15th-place finish, Martin would have to average a fifth-place finish. Gordon would have to win both, but he wouldn't have to lead the most in both. Busch and Stewart still couldn't win.

If Johnson averages a 22nd-place finish -- wins one race and crashes out on lap 1 of the other, a highly unlikely event -- Martin would have to average a 10th-place finish. Gordon would have to average a fifth-place finish. Busch would have to win both races; Stewart would have to win both races and lead the most laps in both.

So there you go -- chances aplenty! Phoenix thus becomes the most important race of the season so far. If Martin can cut into Johnson's lead, even by a little, it'll completely change the complexion of the Chase. We shall see.

Related: Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch

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49 Comments

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  1. DICK SMOTHERS
    1. Posted by DICK SMOTHERS Thu Nov 12, 2009 11:53 am EST

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    C'mon 15th place average finish.
  2. jason l
    2. Posted by jason l Thu Nov 12, 2009 12:13 pm EST

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    Racing luck....jimmys has been all good till last week...every crash,every caution...he has always been in the right place at the right time...I think it's only fitting that he have a little more racing luck....maybe a broken valve spring?
  3. Chase n Dani
    3. Posted by Chase n Dani Thu Nov 12, 2009 1:27 pm EST

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    Loved all the "what if's" Jay. Can anyone imagine " if " Mark were to win the title what an uproar that would be? To win a title at this stage of his life after finishing 2nd four times???? Wow !!!!
  4. MarkN
    4. Posted by MarkN Thu Nov 12, 2009 1:35 pm EST

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    Mark can't win he has the roush hex on him.
  5. Willy Doer
    5. Posted by Willy Doer Thu Nov 12, 2009 2:53 pm EST

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    If we could only convince Jimmie to let us drive him to the track.
    Me- " No Jimmie, i KNOW we are racing at Watkins Glen this weekend....we must just be early.
    BAM!!! - No show, No start....190 points to be gained.
  6. James
    6. Posted by James Thu Nov 12, 2009 3:52 pm EST

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    Well I think Jimmie will take it all. Even if Willy drove him to the wrong track, he would get there in time to finish in first place. Face it , Jimmie wins # 4. Way to go Jimmie and Chad
  7. James
    7. Posted by James Thu Nov 12, 2009 3:54 pm EST

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    Mark will finish second again this year, sorry. JR can forget racing, he has never been good.
  8. wing (wingman)
    8. Posted by wing (wingman) Thu Nov 12, 2009 4:15 pm EST

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    So, if Jimmy were to get knocked out, er, fall in the shower ect. he'd still be in 1st place ? & the last race will be for it all ? there is hope, however slim !!!
  9. NostraChronus
    9. Posted by NostraChronus Thu Nov 12, 2009 4:28 pm EST

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    if Jimmie's gonna win the title, it would be nice to at least see it come down to the last weekend, with Mark Martin shaving additional points off the lead at Phoenix.
  10. Willy Doer
    10. Posted by Willy Doer Thu Nov 12, 2009 5:02 pm EST

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    James, you are exactly right. He is as good/lucky as a three dicked dog.
  11. hersheylover22
    11. Posted by hersheylover22 Thu Nov 12, 2009 10:54 pm EST

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    if johnson runs well this wk its over #4 he we come and the next king of stock car racing mark my words.
  12. davemanbme
    12. Posted by davemanbme Fri Nov 13, 2009 3:05 am EST

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    This year is really heartbreaking. If anyone ever deserved to win a championship, it's Mark Martin. I have been an avid NASCAR fan since 1977, and NASCAR has been made great by drivers like Mark! I am in no way his biggest fan, GO KYLE BUSCH, but I'd love to see the last big driver left from the 80's get a title.
  13. Frevic
    13. Posted by Frevic Fri Nov 13, 2009 5:55 am EST

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    Well its over, if a frog had wings, it wouldn't bump his azz every time he jumped, cant stand JJ, but it is just wishful thinking on peoples part, and hershey, he will never be king of Nascar, Petty, Sr, too mighty big shoes to try to fill, its a shame we have such a stupid points system, Smoke should be looking at another
  14. brinirmess
    14. Posted by brinirmess Fri Nov 13, 2009 7:36 am EST

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    Was very interesting watching NASCAR Now yesterday, and having old senile memories refreshed on the many times Mark lost the Championship under the old system by penalties. So, maybe, there's still hope, that NASCAR will get its head out of its arse, and JJ's and penalize him. But I doubt it will happen, since they already got their warning, and Chad made it clear, that from now on, the car would be "legal". Too bad they did not park him for not being up to speed, instead of giving another warning. Too bad, NASCAR’s rules let them decide who and when they penalize based on their discretion. In other words, when they feel like it.
  15. Rudy88
    15. Posted by Rudy88 Fri Nov 13, 2009 8:54 am EST

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    It amazes me how many people, regardless of what the subject matter of a blog is, will manage to get at least one dis in at JR.
  16. Reds24
    16. Posted by Reds24 Fri Nov 13, 2009 9:13 am EST

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    brin - I am no "fan" of JJ, but this warning you keep talking about... he wasn't ILLEGAL, he was close, just like every other car in the garage. The media hyped it up because it's JJ running for his 4th straight title. yeah, Chad's been caught cheating, but give the guy his due, JJ is a great driver and he knows how the play the game. It's a shame no one else can catch up to him because I'M sick of seeing him in VL too... but call a spade a spade, he wasn't cheating, so no points would have been docked.
  17. Reds24
    17. Posted by Reds24 Fri Nov 13, 2009 9:14 am EST

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    LOL Rudy - I was just thinking the same thing... wth! Jay just ran a Jr article not that long ago, why bring your crabass into here... or just leave Jr alone...
  18. Rudy88
    18. Posted by Rudy88 Fri Nov 13, 2009 9:43 am EST

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    JJ cheating is a matter of perception. I read Jenna Fryer's blog on it, and most people, except jealous JJ haters, would not call what he did cheating. The last incident was in no way cheating. i believe that NASCAR had a lot of nerve even bring to everyone's attention, that he was CLOSE TO CHEATING. I feel that the negative publicity that it caused, was totally unfair to JJ and his team and I thing NASCAR should have been fined when they gave the impression of cheating, when there was NO BASIS for it! NASCAR - MAKE A NICE DONATION TO CHARITY and retract you article, with apologies to the #48 team. That is what I would consider fair!
  19. Rudy88
    19. Posted by Rudy88 Fri Nov 13, 2009 9:46 am EST

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    Please excuse my putrid spelling, but it wasn't me. It was my keyboard's fault.
  20. brinirmess
    20. Posted by brinirmess Fri Nov 13, 2009 10:19 am EST

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    Reds- just like every other car in the garage right?
    NASCAR warned the top two finishers in cup race at Dover International Speedway that their Chevrolets nearly failed inspection. They were not penalized, but it was a warning to make sure that they know that they aren’t too far from being punished for the mistake. So that's what I did, I called it a warning, which is what is was, which was discretion, which is indeed calling a spade a spade. And as far as the black flag for not being up to speed, well.... NASCAR generally warns a driver before throwing the black flag. Here was his warning. So, how exactly do they decide to throw the flag? It's nascar's discretion, they warned him again, he pitted came in, worked on the car again. Nascar in it's discretion, gave him another warning. So yes, I'll give them (JJ and Chad) their due. They damn lucky they get all the warnings from Nascar, and not the book thrown at them like so many other. Hey, A spade's a spade right?
  21. brinirmess
    21. Posted by brinirmess Fri Nov 13, 2009 10:20 am EST

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    Reds- just like every other car in the garage right?
    NASCAR warned the top two finishers in cup race at Dover International Speedway that their Chevrolets nearly failed inspection. They were not penalized, but it was a warning to make sure that they know that they aren’t too far from being punished for the mistake. So that's what I did, I called it a warning, which is what is was, which was discretion, which is indeed calling a spade a spade. And as far as the black flag for not being up to speed, well.... NASCAR generally warns a driver before throwing the black flag. Here was his warning. So, how exactly do they decide to throw the flag? It's nascar's discretion, they warned him again, he pitted came in, worked on the car again. Nascar in it's discretion, gave him another warning. So yes, I'll give them (JJ and Chad) their due. They damn lucky they get all the warnings from Nascar, and not the book thrown at them like so many other. Hey, A spade's a spade right?
  22. brinirmess
    22. Posted by brinirmess Fri Nov 13, 2009 10:22 am EST

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    Excuse the #39's at your own discretion!
    Rudy- Fact of the matter is..IF NASCAR wants to "level the playing field" and stop the cheating, then you don't exactly warn someone to knock it off, or next time, we gonna get ya!
    Just wondering though, does anyone else recall any other tean being given a warning before being penalized. For the life of me, I can't.
  23. miss priss
    23. Posted by miss priss Fri Nov 13, 2009 10:43 am EST

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    Rudy, JJ's team wasn't the only team "cited" for a near illegal car. So if they are going to "apologize" to JJ, then they should also apologize to MM and his crew. BUT, that isn't going to happen. It just seems that people are dwelling on the #48 near miss and failing to remember he wasn't the only chase team to have a mild warning to pay closer attention.
  24. Reds24
    24. Posted by Reds24 Fri Nov 13, 2009 10:46 am EST

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    brin - I understand what you are saying, I really do. And I remember the whole non-black-flagging thing but I honestly can NOT believe that NASCAR would be on Jimmie's side for this. NASCAR knows how much each and every fan (besides JJ lovers) are sick of seeing him win... while it's quite a feat to win 4 in a row, it's annoying as hell for 42 other drivers (well maybe only 11 other drivers, but you get my point).... I think NASCAR is way to lenient on ALL drivers, JJ is no exception, we just hear more about him because he is the top dog. They need to learn to stick by their rules for all drivers.
  25. Rudy88
    25. Posted by Rudy88 Fri Nov 13, 2009 10:59 am EST

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    brini - They did not warn them to knock it off. They were not illegal. Are you trying to say that they warned them to NOT BE ALMOST ILLEGAL? They warned them that they were on the border of being illegal. In other words, don't go any further, or you will be illegal.

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