The UFC has finally arrived in the Pacific Northwest and it's bringing one of the most balanced pay-per-view cards in recent memory. The promotion stacked the televised portion with five tight fights and the odds reflect that with all of them featuring a favorite at minus-180 or less.

It starts at the top of the card with Randy Couture against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Couture is 46 and Nogueira is 33 but both are fighting questions of age. Big Nog looked sluggish his last time out in a loss against Frank Mir while Couture is just old. It has to catch up with him at some point, doesn't it? There are some good fights at 205 and 185 pounds, all with a chance to catapult the winners closer to title contention. There's also pressure on a lot of fighters here. UFC has been cutting a lot of fighters recently. As many as 10 guys from this card could go if they lose.

Sports betting on MMA is simple to understand. When you see a minus number that is the amount you need to bet to win $100. The favorite is always a minus number. So the bigger the minus number, the bigger favorite. Anything over -300 is a huge favorite. The plus number is what you get if you a bet a dog for $100.

UFC 102 Odds (Venetian Resort Hotel Casino)
Official plays in bold.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+130) v. Randy Couture (-160) - Heavyweight
This is a rough fight to read. Both fighters are coming off a loss but Big Nog (31-5-1, 2-1 UFC) looked worse in struggling on the feet against an average striker in Frank Mir. He was also sluggish in fights against Heath Herring and Tim Sylvia. The only worry here is how active Couture (16-9, 13-6 UFC) is when he's in Nogueira's guard. As long as he doesn't have a momentary slip and get caught in one of those classic Big Nog submissions, Couture should be able to grind out a decision.
PICK: COUTURE -160

Thiago Silva (+130) v. Keith Jardine (-160) - Light Heavyweight 
Silva really looked awful defensively against Lyoto Machida. Of course, lots of fighters have, but Silva was the first to really get smashed by "The Dragon." Tito Ortiz survived three rounds against Machida while Silva didn't even look competitive. Silva (13-1, 4-1 UFC) blamed the Machida loss on the way he cut the weight, but when you look at his ledger of UFC wins (James Irvin, Tomasz Drwal, Antonio Mendes, Houston Alexander) it's not all that impressive. Meanwhile Jardine (14-5-1, 6-4 UFC) has consistently fought top 10 light heavyweights including several ex-champs. Jardine will confuse Silva on the feet and be able to reach him whenever he wants. This could be a knockout or brutal beatdown.
PICK: JARDINE -160

Jake Rosholt (+150) v. Chris Leben (-180) - Middleweight
The UFC has done Rosholt (5-1, 0-1 UFC) few favors in lining him up against guys like Dan Miller and Chris Leben right out of the gates. He needs to wrestle to win this. Forget about trying to strike with Leben. Did he learn his lesson from the sloppy effort against Miller? Based on what happened to Miller against Chael Sonnen, where he was thrown around like a rag doll by the wrestler, Rosholt should've smashed him. He didn't. I fear he tries to show how well-rounded he is, again here at UFC 102. Unless you're a top of the food chain striker, you shouldn't stand for very long with Leben (18-6, 8-4 UFC).
PICK: LEBEN -180

Demian Maia (+145) v. Nate Marquardt (-175) - Middleweight 
Maia can strike fear in anyone if he can get the fight to the ground. His submissions are dynamite and he doesn't have to score his takedowns in traditional fashion. I loved Marquardt (28-8-2, 7-2 UFC) at the start of the week but some of his talk about taking the fight anywhere scares me. He should be able to easily outclass Maia (10-0, 5-0 UFC) on the feet, but if he gets sloppy and even worse, willingly goes to the mat with Maia, he could get upset. That said, "The Great" still has more ways to win the fight.
PICK: MARQUARDT -175

Krzysztof Soszynski (+140) v. Brandon Vera (-170) - Light Heavyweight 
Soszynski is a good journeyman fighter with excellent power. He's a heavyweight in a light heavy's body, but he also possesses the speed of a heavyweight. This is a perfect fight for Vera (10-3, 6-3 UFC), someone who will stand and bang on the feet. Vera's Muay Thai should allow him to be more dangerous on the feet and catch Soszynski (18-8-1, 3-0 UFC) more often than he's caught. Don't be fooled fooled by Soszynski's 3-0 mark in the UFC. Brian Stann isn't a UFC-level fighter and neither is Shane Primm. His other win came against Andre Gusmao, who was silly in trying to bang it out with the Canadian.
PICK: VERA -170

Aaron Simpson (+135) v. Ed Herman (-165) - Middleweight 
Simpson, 35, is a dynamite wrestler, but is he that much better than Herman? Herman (15-7, 4-4 UFC). is a pretty seasoned guy. I don't see him being unable to get off the mat against a ground and pounder like Simpson (5-0, 1-0 UFC) for very long. Herman should be able to find an opening to score a submission. If not, he may be headed for the ex-UFC fighter list.
PICK: HERMAN -165

Chris Tuchscherer (+280) v. Gabriel Gonzaga (-360) - Heavyweight 
Tuchscherer (17-1, 0-0 UFC) comes in with a good reputation after serving as a trainer partner of UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar. His style should give Gonzaga some trouble as long as he doesn't try to slug it out with the Brazilian. Gonzaga has appeared to break mentally in some of his UFC losses. He smashed Shane Carwin to start their fight but when Carwin survived a broken nose, Gonzaga (10-4, 6-3 UFC) got sloppy. Gonzaga clearly broke when he got bullied by Couture and Fabricio Werdum. Tuchscherer is a former Division II All-American wrestler and has the bulk to pushed around Gonzaga. Gonzaga should win but I'm not laying this kind of price on a guy who's so unpredictable.
PICK: TUCHSCHERER +280 

Justin McCully (+180) v. Mike Russow (-220) - Heavyweight 
McCully (9-4-2, 2-1 UFC) has been sidelined an awful lot because of injuries, so it's hard to get a read on how good he is or how dedicated he is to the fight game. His two UFC wins, over Eddie Sanchez and Antoni Hardonk, aren't bad. Russow (11-1, 0-0 UFC) comes in with a good reputation as a great wrestler and submission fighter. That appears to be McCully's weakness. Plus there may be a strength difference with Russow holding a 22-pound weight advantage.
PICK: RUSSOW -220

Tim Hague (Even) v. Todd Duffee (-130) - Heavyweight 
Hague (10-1, 1-0 UFC) won his debut but was looking awful before Pat Barry lost his mind and got incredibly sloppy. Hague's defense standing was brutal. Hague is huge but so is Duffee, so there won't be a size disparity. Duffee (5-0) has been screwed out of several UFC fights, so he'll be ready to go in this one. He's coming off a nice TKO win over UFC-veteran Assuerio Silva, the same guy who went the distance with Tim Sylvia and Cheick Kongo.
PICK: DUFFEE -130

Nick Catone (+150) v. Mark Munoz (-180) - Middleweight
It's make or break time for both of these fighters. Catone has been a solid guy in the UFC but he's coming off a loss to Tim Credeur. Munoz made the wise move to bolt from the light heavyweight division where he was blasted out via head kick by Matt Hamill at UFC 96. He looked dynamite at the weigh-ins at middleweight. We'll see if his first time cutting down to 185 saps his stamina. Both guys have a decorated collegiate wrestling backgrounds but Munoz is on a different level. The story here is the same as it is for most NCAA champion wrestlers in MMA, play to your strength! Munoz shouldn't be testing out his striking. If he screws around too much, Catone is a solid submission fighter.
PICK: MUNOZ -180

Evan Dunham (+180) v. Marcus Aurelio (-220) - Lightweight
Dunham looked dynamite is his UFC debut against Per Eklund. The kid is a powerful striker with a frenetic pace. This is a big step up against a world class jiu-jitsu fighter in Marcus Aurelio, the BJJ coach at American Top Team in South Florida. Unfortunately Aurelio has shown himself to be a one trick pony. He doesn't operate well from his back and his striking has been weak in UFC losses to Clay Guida, Tyson Griffin and Hermes Franca. We'll roll the dice on the upset. As long as Dunham doesn't get caught in a silly position, he's got a shot to help us cash a dog ticket.
PICK: DUNHAM +180  

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