Cagewriter - UFC

If you live in Las Vegas or frequent far away places, there's no shortage of great MMA fights to make selections on. We're going to do things a little differently this time around. When you play sports you don't bet every game or fight. So we'll give some analysis for each fight and then highlight the top picks in BOLD.

FEDOR EMELIANENKO v. TIM SYLVIA - HEAVYWEIGHT

This is a tough one. It's too much money to lay on Fedor but he should win the fight. It one won't be easy. Sylvia could do major damage if the fight stays on the feet.  He's a huge guy at 6-foot-8, 265 lbs and has rarely been taken down. I just can't see him staying off the mat for the entire fight.

PICK: FEDOR -400

ANDERSON SILVA v. JAMES IRVIN - LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT (205 LBS)

Another massive price. We won't mention the size differential although it is clear that Irvin won't be thrown around like a rag doll like so many 185-pounders have been by Silva. Too many fighters have said, the size won't matter in the overall picture especially if it goes to the ground. Irvin is too easy to submit. But there is the slight risk with Irvin's KO power. So we'll stay away from the huge price.

PICK: SILVA -550

CLICK BELOW TO HEAR YAHOO! SPORTS' KEVIN IOLE'S PICKS FOR THE FIGHT WEEKEND:

ANDREI ARLOVSKI v. BEN ROTHWELL - HEAVYWEIGHT

This is a big step up in class for Rothwell. We really don't know if he's on this level. The IFL was filled with chumps, guys ranked outside of the top 20 heavyweights in the world. Arlovski still has world class skills but does he have world class aggression? The answer is no. He looked passive against Fabricio Werdum and Jake O'Brien but those fight were dictated by the opponent's style. Rothwell will force a fight and pay for it.  

PICK: ARLOVSKI -300

JESSE TAYLOR v. C.B. DOLLAWAY - MIDDLEWEIGHT (185)

This is a huge fight for both guys. Dollaway can't lose two in a row and I don't think he will. It's a battle of wrestlers but Dollaway has a lot more game on the feet. Keep in mind, they wrestled in college three times and Dollaway was 3-0. Can we really trust that Taylor has cleaned up his life and trained for this fight at a top level? Keep in mind, I'm not a huge Dollaway devotee either, I picked Amir Sadollah in the TUF 7 Finale.

PICK: DOLLAWAY -115

BABALU SOBRAL v. MIKE WHITEHEAD - LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT (205)

This is another huge step up in class. Whitehead has won 12 straight fights since his loss to Keith Jardine in UFC. But you gotta question the quality of competition. Babalu is still a world class fighter. His stand-up isn't great but he's dynamite on the ground. Keep in mind, had it not been for the David Heath choking incident, Babalu could still be in the mix with all the great UFC 205s.

PICK: BABALU -200

VITOR BELFORT v. TERRY MARTIN - MIDDLEWEIGHT (185)

Martin is a one-trick pony. He's a striker but is he world class like Belfort? We know that the issue with Belfort is his ticker. Working with the guys at Xtreme Couture gives me confidence that he'll be right mentally for this one. I can't pick the guy who recently lost to Marvin Eastman. Remember when Belfort fought Eastman? Marvin suffered a cut at the hands of Belfort that looked like someone had taken a hatchet to his noggin.

PICK: BELFORT -220

PEDRO RIZZO v. JOSH BARNETT - HEAVYWEIGHT

Is Rizzo over the hill and has added to his game over the years? I'm not sure on the age issue but he looks like a limited as far as 2008 standards go. We know that Barnett is now one of the most well-rounded fighters in any division. The only worry here is the pace of the fight. If Rizzo can keep it on the feet, he could sneak in a decision. It probably won't happen but the price is too high to play Barnett.

PICK: BARNETT -400

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23 Comments

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  1. mathiasmorciglio
    1. Posted by mathiasmorciglio Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:11 pm EDT

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    Wow hold on now don't go out on a limb there buddy. At least he's not picking all the favorites or obvious choices (sarcastic).
  2. urwrecked
    2. Posted by urwrecked Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:45 pm EDT

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    Silva -550.. I gotta put a couple benjis on Irvin at those kind of odds.
  3. o
    3. Posted by o Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:43 pm EDT

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    Affliction signs UFC scrubs and boasts it has the better fighters...just because they got Fedor doesnt mean they have the best fighters..he hasnt even proven himself in the states yet...there throwing out big money to these fighters just to leap into competition with the UFC...too bad it wont work..trump should have looked more into this investment..he doesnt even know the other fighters on the card
  4. Revinax
    4. Posted by Revinax Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:13 pm EDT

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    Sylvia looks like a live dog, if you can get +400
  5. Amish Navy Seal
    5. Posted by Amish Navy Seal Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    Does it matter which company wins? I don't care who the fighter work for... Make the matches. I don't care if it's UFC, Affliction, Dream, or any other company. MAKE THE FIGHTS. I don't care who pays the fighters. UFC=Ultimate Focus, Cash! MMA = More Money Association?
  6. Amish Navy Seal
    6. Posted by Amish Navy Seal Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    My fault MMA= Maximum Money Allocation
  7. Ian B
    7. Posted by Ian B Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:22 pm EDT

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    Why wouldn't somebody pick the obvious choices or the favorites? Wouldn't they be the favorites because everybody thinks they are going to win. Get a clue mathiasmorciglio.
  8. mathiasmorciglio
    8. Posted by mathiasmorciglio Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:11 pm EDT

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    I'm just saying he didn't go out on a limb or favor an underdog in any of the matches, if he wanted to write an article he could have just said "all the favorites are going to win" and saved some time. Get over yourself Ian B.
  9. sigmanu1619
    9. Posted by sigmanu1619 Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:21 pm EDT

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    The major problem in MMA today is the basis on what wins a fight....prime ex. is rampage-forrest. Forrest was more active for 25 minutes but Rampage inflicted more damage in 4 of the 5 rounds. So the question of who won is simple....does the fighter that stays more active win or the fighter that hurt his opponent more? Personally, I can't stand the fact that people think that activity = success. That's the boxing mentality and it will kill MMA. MMA is a brutal fight and thats what people love it for. It can be technical but it also better be a good fight and not a cardio test. Would like to hear from u guys on this issue cause its becoming a problem.
  10. Lee
    10. Posted by Lee Thu Sep 03, 2009 6:48 pm EDT

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    disagree #10 -barnett and fedor are the only 2 on that card that aren't UFC rejects. Vitor has the talent but he's soft. Lindland, Rizzo, Sylvia, are all has been garbage
  11. Vet
    11. Posted by Vet Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:03 pm EDT

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    I think both of these are great cards. I don't care who fights for who either. I'm not loyal to a company, I just love to see some great fights. I think part of the lure of the Fedor/sylvia fight is that Fedor hasn't proven himself in the states. People want to see what all the fuss is about. It is a great move by Affliction. Also, seeing Babalu fight again will be great. I agree that this guy just picked all of the obvious choices but what else can you do? If you picked any other outcomes on any fight, you might get lucky but you'd be stupid to put money on it. I'm watching one live and recording the other so I can watch it as soon as the other ends. This is a great night for MMA fans. Who cares if the companies are competing if they provide us with some entertainment.
  12. Carp
    12. Posted by Carp Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:55 pm EDT

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    #9, you make a great point. In forrest griffins pre-fight interviews leading to the rampage fight he stated, "if i stay on the outside i can stay away from his power. Kick punch run." The UFC had no objection to giving a guy with taht mentality a title shot? come on. Running as a gameplan and strategy? Thats pathetic and hardly the mindset of a champion.
  13. jose c
    13. Posted by jose c Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:27 pm EDT

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    ohh guys i'm so happy about the fight tonight ,sorry for my wife at 9.00 pm
  14. sigmanu1619
    14. Posted by sigmanu1619 Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:21 pm EDT

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    #16 do u like watching guys fight for a decision win because they know they're inferior. U develop a strategy and find some way to finish the fight and your opponent. If u can't finish your opponent u don't take the fight. Guys like forrest (who i like just don't respect as an elite champion) focus on outlasting their opponents with better cardio but more activity. That was Forrest's gameplan from day 1 was to keep his distance, jab, leg kick and hope to make it to a decision. Rampage didn't go after forrest enough to win either, its not about that....im just seeing more fighters do that now....most MMA fans don't like this and Forrest better find a way to finish or he's going to lose fans.
  15. HeyNow
    15. Posted by HeyNow Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:28 pm EDT

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    both companies have the main event to boast. The undercards are hype, heavy weight has beens and light weight wannabees.
    What's up with MMA fighters dressing like teenagers?
  16. joanne m
    16. Posted by joanne m Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:30 pm EDT

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    Arguing on the internet is like competing in the special olympics.... Even if you win, you are still retarted.
  17. Anton
    17. Posted by Anton Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:48 pm EDT

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    joanne m - lol. Good one. I'm hoping for an upset of one of the favorites. Who cares who does it.
  18. c lee
    18. Posted by c lee Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:24 pm EDT

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    if you are gonna insult people, and call them retarded, learn to spell it, as it makes you look....well...not smart. as for picking favorites, if yhere are no live dogs, what do you do, pick an underdog to "mix it up" a little??
  19. friscokat415
    19. Posted by friscokat415 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:03 pm EDT

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    ufc card is boring except for the main event fight.
  20. Anton
    20. Posted by Anton Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:48 pm EDT

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    c lee- As corny (bad of a speller as well) as you sound about "mixing it up a little," there is almost ALWAYS an underdog. James Irvin was the underdog and got killed. Fedor proved to rabid UFC fans that he is the best IN THE WORLD, despite the fact that Sylvia is not the best representative of UFC. I'm still waiting on Randy to fight him but I doubt he ever will.
  21. Cofield
    21. Posted by Cofield Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:34 pm EDT

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    For those of you who don't understand gambling. The goal is not to pick underdogs but take advantage of value. We picked four favorites that were sizable favorites and took some heat here. The total tally was 18-1 for the favorites. We went 4-0 with our selections. Only one of those four fights went to a decision. There's no limb necessary to go 4-0.
    Some nights the favorites are the way to go, other times there's more value with the dogs. I guess it would've taken some balls to pick Irvin but it looks like the notion of great value with Irvin turned out to be a waste of money just like Sylvia.
  22. Cofield
    22. Posted by Cofield Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:34 pm EDT

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    For those of you who don't understand gambling. The goal is not to pick underdogs but take advantage of value. we picked four favorites that were sizable favorites and took some heat here. The total tally was 18-1 for the favorites. We went 4-0 with our selections. Only one of those four fights went to a decision. There's no limb necessary to go 4-0.
    Some nights the favorites are the way to go, other times there's more value with the dogs. I guess it would've taken some balls to pick Irvin but it looks like the notion of great value with Irvin turned out to be a waste of money just like Sylvia.
  23. Chuck Wagon
    23. Posted by Chuck Wagon Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:52 pm EDT

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    The Affliction bouts were in Anaheim, not Vegas.

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