MLS breakdown: Stage set for wild final weekend

All of the trials and tribulations of the penultimate weekend didn’t settle very much, did they?

MLS enters the final week of the campaign with plenty still to decide prior to the start of the playoffs. Columbus (top seed in the East) is the only team to sort out its playoff positioning, while only five of the eight playoff berths (Chivas USA, Houston, Los Angeles and Seattle in addition to the Crew) are sealed. Seven teams are in the mix for the final three spots after Kansas City finally saw its hopes dashed with New England’s 0-0 draw with Chicago on Saturday night.

There will be plenty to say as the week progresses about the games that will decide a season’s worth of work in 90 minutes, but for now, the Breakdown focuses on how the muddled playoff picture looks heading into the decisive round of matches.

The playoff slotting procedure

MLS awards playoff berths to the first two teams in the Eastern and Western Conference and the four best remaining finishers in either conference. The two designated Eastern and Western Conference berths are determined first prior to the allotment of wild-card berths.

The wild-card teams are assigned to their home conference first regardless of point totals before being used to fill any remaining slots. As a means of example, assume five Western Conference teams and three Eastern Conference clubs qualify for the postseason. Since the top four Western Conference clubs are settled heading into the final weekend (more on that later), the fifth Western Conference club would slide over to the East to play Columbus as the four seed even if it had more points than the third-place Eastern Conference club.

The relevant tie-breaking procedures

A series of tie-breakers is used to break end-of-season deadlocks. The full list is posted here, but the important points are as follows:

1. The first three tie-breakers are head-to-head results, overall goal differential and overall total goals.

2. Head-to-head ties between three or more teams are settled by a mini-league. The team with the highest points-per-game total is slotted first. If the points-per-game total is equal, the next tiebreaker is overall goal differential.

3. In the case of multiple teams vying for multiple spots (e.g., four tied teams for two spots), the top team takes the first spot and then the mini-league is reconfigured without its results (e.g. Team 1 wins the mini-league, so it takes the first available spot, Teams 2-4 go back into a mini-league to determine the final spot).

The race for the Supporters’ Shield

1. Columbus (13-6-10, 49 pts, v. New England, +11 GD)

T2. Chivas USA (13-9-6, 45 pts., @ Chicago, v. Houston, +5 GD)

Columbus can clinch its second consecutive Supporters Shield with a victory against New England on Sunday afternoon. By the time Columbus takes the field, it will know whether Chivas USA still has a claim to the Shield because the Red-and-White plays Chicago on Thursday night and Houston earlier on Sunday afternoon. A loss in either match would eliminate Chivas USA from the chase. Houston and Los Angeles are also on 45 points, but both clubs are eliminated from the Shield chase because they have only one match remaining and can’t match the Crew’s point total.

If Chivas USA collects four points and Columbus loses to the Revolution, the Crew would retain the Shield unless the Goats overturn the six-goal deficit in goal difference.

The battle for first in the West

T1. Chivas USA (13-9-6, 45 pts., @ Chicago, v. Houston, +5 GD)

T1. Los Angeles (11-6-12, 45 pts., v. San Jose, +3 GD)

T1. Houston (12-8-9, 45 pts., @ Chivas USA, +9 GD)

4. Seattle (11-7-11, 44 pts., v. FC Dallas, +8 GD)

Chivas USA, Los Angeles and Houston all enter the final week of the season tied for top spot in the West with Seattle a further point behind. There are two certainties heading into the final weekend: all four teams will make the playoffs and all four teams will play each other in some arrangement of first-round matches because Colorado, FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake can’t reach 44 points.

The simplest way to decide the scenario would be for Chivas USA to accumulate four or more points during its two matches this week and win the West. In the event of a tie for top spot involving Los Angeles, the Galaxy would lift the West crown. Seattle can only win the West with a victory and help from the teams above them.

Relevant tiebreakers

Two-way

Los Angeles holds season series tiebreakers over Chivas USA and Houston.

Houston would hold the tiebreak over Chivas USA should it come into play with a CUSA win in Chicago on Thursday and a Houston win on Sunday.

Chivas USA would win a tiebreaker with Seattle should it come into play with two CUSA draws, a Seattle win and a Los Angeles loss.

Three-way

Los Angeles (11 points in 5 games) wins a three-way tiebreak by virtue of its results against Houston and Chivas USA.

Four-way

Los Angeles (12 points in 7 games) wins a four-way tiebreak regardless of the result between Houston-Chivas USA.

The quest for second place in the Eastern Conference

2. Chicago (10-7-12, 42 pts, v. Chivas USA, +4 GD)

T3. D.C. United (9-8-12, 39 pts., @ Kansas City, -1 GD)

T3. New England (10-10-9, 39 pts., @ Columbus, -5 GD)

T3. Toronto FC (10-10-9, 39 pts., @ New York, -4 GD)

Chicago needs one point in Thursday night’s home tilt with Chivas USA to clinch a playoff spot as the second-placed team in the Eastern Conference. If Chicago loses, it will face an anxious wait on the results over the weekend to determine whether it will go through as the second-place team or drop into the wild card chase based on tiebreakers.

If D.C. United wins in Kansas City, it would be in the best position to prevail in a two-way or three-way battle with Chicago. Toronto FC would emerge victorious if all four teams end up locked on 42 points. New England is all but eliminated from the second-place chase barring a pair of heavy results for and against due to its poor goal differential.

Relevant tiebreakers

Two-way

The only relevant two-way tiebreakers for second in the East involve Chicago. The Fire would win a tiebreak over Toronto FC and lose out to D.C. United based on season series results. Chicago would also almost certainly win a tiebreaker with New England after two draws in the season series because it holds a vastly superior goal difference (+4 to -5).

Three-way

Chicago-D.C.-N.E.: United

Chicago-D.C.-TFC: United

Chicago-N.E.-TFC: Fire

Four-way

Toronto FC (9 points in 6 games) edges out D.C. United (9 points in 7 games) in the four-way tiebreak.

The almighty fracas for the seventh and eighth playoff spots

E2/6. Chicago (10-7-12, 42 pts, v. Chivas USA, +4 GD)

7. Colorado (10-9-10, 40 pts., @ Real Salt Lake, +7 GD)

T8. FC Dallas (11-12-6, 39 pts., @ Seattle,+4 GD)

T8. D.C. United (9-8-12, 39 pts., @ Kansas City, -1 GD)

T8. New England (10-10-9, 39 pts., @ Columbus, -5 GD)

T8. Toronto FC (10-10-9, 39 pts., @ New York, -4 GD)

12. Real Salt Lake (10-12-7, 37 pts., v. Colorado, +5 GD)

Colorado would seal a playoff spot with a road victory at Real Salt Lake. RSL must win in order to have a chance, but it’ll need some help from other teams in order to grab a playoff spot. One Eastern Conference team must qualify in second spot in the East no matter how the weekend shakes out.

After that, it all comes down to the weekend’s results. Toronto FC has presumably the easiest fixture away to New York, while FC Dallas will gun for its fifth consecutive win against already-qualified Seattle at Qwest Field. The job is a bit harder for D.C. in its tricky away match in Kansas City. New England faces the most difficult task as it travels to Columbus on Sunday afternoon, though its chances could be boosted if the Crew has already locked up the Supporters Shield by then and Saturday night’s results fall kindly.

Relevant tiebreakers

In the interest of keeping some semblance of order, the extended series of tiebreakers can be found here.

Week 31 – Questions, thoughts and answers

Monday MLS Breakdown Player of the Week – Steve Cronin, GK, D.C. United

With all due apologies to Seattle’s Freddie Ljungberg, Cronin stepped into a chaotic situation when he signed on loan from Portland (USL-1) on Monday and performed admirably in dire conditions at R.F.K. Stadium. Cronin’s composure and his six saves made Luciano Emilio’s early goal stand up as United kept its playoff hopes alive with a 1-0 victory over Columbus.

MVP Tracker

1. Shalrie Joseph, New England midfielder

2. Landon Donovan, Los Angeles midfielder

3. Jeff Cunningham, FC Dallas forward

Next in Line: Omar Cummings, Colorado forward; Dwayne De Rosario, Toronto FC midfielder; Guillermo Barros Schelotto, Columbus midfielder; Chad Marshall, Columbus defender; Conor Casey, Colorado forward; Zach Thornton, Chivas USA goalkeeper.

The Starting XI

1. Toronto FC interim boss Chris Cummins took a huge gamble handing Emmanuel Gomez his first start since Sept. 12 in Saturday’s white-knuckle 1-0 win over Real Salt Lake at BMO Field. The Gambian central defender didn’t exactly repay his manager’s faith by giving away the ball that led to Yura Movsisyan’s first-half chance, taking a needless yellow card for a rash challenge at midfield and allowing Fabian Espindola plenty of room in the latter stages of the contest.

2. Only Espindola’s late game profligacy – the Argentine spurned two glorious chances in the final quarter of an hour – kept TFC from conceding yet another late equalizer. The Reds pushed out a bit more in the final quarter of an hour than it did last week, but the end-of-game performance wasn’t what one would call a cool and collected way to see out a match.

3. Chicago forward Chris Rolfe is probably still wondering how he managed to get booked for diving after New England goalkeeper Matt Reis and brought him down on a breakaway in Saturday night’s 0-0 draw at Gillette Stadium. Instead of awarding the penalty and sending Reis off as most would have done, referee Jorge Gonzalez somehow produced a yellow card for simulation instead. “Obviously, it’s frustrating,” Fire coach Denis Hamlett said after the match. “Guys feel like they put a lot into it and we got into a situation where we thought it was a 100 percent penalty kick. We deal with it.”

4. The draw marked the end of New England assistant coach Paul Mariner’s six years on the Revolution sidelines. The former England international heard his name batted around for any number of jobs in America over the years, but the offer arrived from England. Mariner will join Plymouth Argyle this week as head coach, serving in a fairly similar day-to-day coaching role to the one he performed in New England. The move was worth the wait: Mariner is in line for a significant pay bump – a number perhaps even exceeding the $250,000 reported by the Boston Globe on Sunday, according to a source familiar with the situation – that probably would have topped his paycheck had he eventually landed a MLS head coaching gig.

5. It was a bit of a surprise to see United opt for a 3-5-2 formation at the outset against Columbus, particularly when Crew head coach Robert Warzycha opted to play starting wingers Robbie Rogers and Eddie Gaven. The duo simply had too much space to roam before United finally switched to a four-man back line halfway through the second half.

6. “Obviously it’s an important win,” Seattle coach Sigi Schmid said after Sounders FC clinched its playoff spot with a come-from-behind 3-2 win in Kansas City on Saturday night. Seattle is the first expansion side to make the playoffs in its first year since Chicago did it in 1998. “For a first-year franchise to make the playoffs in the first year, it hasn’t happened in a long time. Like I said, the scenario was different when Chicago did it because the league was a lot younger. I’m proud of our team, and I’m proud of what we’ve accomplished.”

7. With first-choice centerback Julien Baudet suspended after picking up a red card in Colorado’s 1-1 draw with New England on Oct. 3, Colorado coach Gary Smith had to throw Cory Gibbs straight into the mix in Saturday night’s 2-1 loss at FC Dallas despite the fact that Gibbs hadn’t played since suffering a torn quadriceps muscle on Aug. 30. Gibbs’ rust showed in the early stages as he arrived tardily and cleaned out Jair Benitez with an impetuous challenge after three minutes. Dave van den Bergh supplied George John’s opener at the far post with the resulting free kick and the Rapids never really recovered from going down early.

8. Then again, the Rapids never really recover from allowing the opening goal. The Rapids have no wins (0-43-13) in the past 56 matches in which they have conceded the opening goal, according to a handy graphic presented by the FCD broadcast.

9. “We lost two points tonight,” Chivas USA forward Justin Braun told MLSnet after the Red-and-White could only manage a 2-2 home draw against San Jose. Braun’s 66th minute equalizer ensured a share of the points, but the Goats couldn’t find the winner despite ample second-half pressure. “It was our game to win and we didn’t capitalize on it. We’ll take the point and move on from here. The team’s been playing well lately and we’re hoping to keep going.”

10. “This was a like a dress rehearsal for the playoffs, this is the same type of atmosphere you would get,” Los Angeles goalkeeper Donovan Ricketts told MLSnet after Sunday’s 0-0 draw at Robertson Stadium. “Houston, they’re a tough, physical team and playing the way we did, we were good enough to get a point.”

11. What a goal line clearance by Geoff Cameron to keep Edson Buddle’s little clipped shot out of the goal after 52 minutes. Between his need to spring to his feet after getting his feet tangled with Buddle in the buildup and the proximity of the post, Cameron had plenty to do to scrape the ball clear to avoid conceding, but he accomplished the task with an artistic and acrobatic flourish.

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