Scouting report: Brewers-Phillies Game 2

Starting Pitchers

Sabathia

• CC Sabathia was a horse at the end of the season, starting three games on three days rest and winning the last two with a 0.56 ERA. He goes again tonight on short rest. The work load agrees with CC, whose fastball has been even more effective. Opponents hit .227 against his hummer in the last three games, compared to .304 earlier. However, Sabathia has thrown progressively fewer fastball strikes with each short-rest outing, and hitters have put better swings on his heater. His fastball strike percentage dropped from 67 percent on September 20 to a below average 59 percent on September 28. Meanwhile, well-hit fastball swings increased from zero to eight percent, which suggests that the sequence of short-rest starts have sapped some of the late life from CC's hummer.

• He's compensated by throwing more off-speed pitches, which have been nearly unhittable. Sabathia threw fastballs 70 percent of the time on September 20, but only 54 percent in his last start. He tossed a lot more changeups, but the Cubs put only five of his 30 changes in play and hit one single. The Phillies struggled this season against lefty changeups, hitting .224 to rank 25th in the league.

Myers

• Up-and-down describes Brett Myers' season. He racked up five straight losses in April and May and earned a midyear demotion to the minors to sharpen his fastball. Myers notched four wins in a row in August and September, but finished with a horrible 15.12 ERA in his last two starts. He went the distance three weeks ago against the Brewers, though, allowing only two hits – one of them a Prince Fielder home run. Myers lowered batting average against his fastball from .354 to .271 after being recalled from the minor leagues.

• It usually takes a few pitches for Myers to find his touch. He has struggled to get the first batter out and has allowed the game's leadoff hitter to reach base 43 percent of the time (33 percent league average). Myers has surrendered 11 first inning home runs, with a .757 slugging percentage on his first 15 pitches of games. After he settles in, Myers has thrown strikes 65 percent of the time and been tough to hit hard, allowing a .248 batting average and .411 slugging percentage after the 15th pitch.

Bullpen

• The Phillies 3.19 bullpen ERA is best in the National League, and reliable closer Brad Lidge is a key reason. It took 35 pitches for Lidge to stifle a Brewers rally yesterday – the most pitches he has thrown in an outing this year. He's thrown strikes 61 percent of the time, but tossed strikes on just 54 percent of pitches yesterday. The slider is Lidge's main pitch, and normally he gets hitters to chase 41 percent of them. Milwaukee hitters refused to bite, however, and chased only three of 14 sliders that darted out of the strike zone.

• Brewers closer Salomon Torres struggled through September with an 8.53 ERA. Hitters wasted no time, going for 8-for-11 on the first pitch last month against Torres. His fastball averages 92 mph, but he had trouble controlling it for strikes on 0-0 counts. He took a little off and located 57 percent in the zone on the first pitch compared to 54 percent earlier in the year. The slight velocity dip made it easier for hitters to catch up, getting all eight first-pitch hits off heaters.

Hitters

Dobbs

• Phillies pinch hitters own a .727 regular season OPS, the strongest bench in the National League postseason. Greg Dobbs led the subs with his .329 batting average and .846 OPS in 76 at-bats as pinch hitter. A left-handed batter, Dobbs usually faces righties and matches up well against Brewers relievers Carlos Villanueva and Guillermo Mota, who throw breaking balls more than 25 percent of the time. Dobbs is hitting .368 versus righty curves and sliders.

Stairs

• Late-season acquisition Matt Stairs is another hitter that could come off the Phillies bench and be a difference maker. He went 5-for-13 with a pair of home runs pinch hitting for Philadelphia last month. The 40-year-old Stairs has knocked four dingers off righthanders' changeups this season, and could see action against Brewers reliever Eric Gagne who throws his change on 31 percent of pitches.

Weeks

• The Brewers have scuffled for hits with two outs with a .230 batting average that is third worst in the league. Second baseman Rickie Weeks has especially struggled; his .181 average with two outs is one of the lowest for an everyday player. He strikes out 19 percent of the time when there are less than two outs, but whiffs on 26 percent of two-out turns. Weeks chases 60 percent of two-strike changeups in this situation. Batting with two outs yesterday, Weeks struck out looking on a change.

Hart

• Milwaukee hitters stand to see a lot of curveballs tonight from Brett Myers, who snaps off his hook 23 percent of the time. Corey Hart is hitting .409 against righty curves, so the breaking ball he usually sees from righthanders is the slider. He's batting .248 off sliders, but hits them with authority when they hang in the middle of the zone. Hart is slugging .656 on those pitches.

Brewers hitters who match up well vs. Myers

Prince Fielder

Fielder owns a .958 OPS vs. righty breaking pitches this season.

Ryan Braun

Since 2007, Braun has a Well-Hit Average of .280 in 25 ABs against pitchers like Myers since last season.

Brewers hitters who could struggle

Jason Kendall

He's slugging only .328 in 125 ABs vs. middle-tier right-handers since 2007.

J.J. Hardy

Hardy went 0-for-4 this season against Myers, who attacked him with off-speed pitches for groundball outs.

Phillies hitters who match up well vs. Sabathia

Pat Burrell

Slugging .514 in 37 ABs against pitchers like Sabathia since last season.

Jimmy Rollins

Rollins reached base 38 times in 102 PAs (.373 On Base Average) vs. hard throwing lefthanders this season.

Phillies hitters who could struggle

Pedro Feliz

He has a Well-Hit Average of .182 (6-for-33) against pitchers similar to Sabathia since last year.

Ryan Howard

The big bopper is batting just .091 this season versus changeups from lefties.