AccuScore: Red Sox and Phillies surge
AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to predict how players will perform under different environmental, match-up, and game-situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game one at-bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series. Here’s the AccuScore analysis after 20 weeks of play. Visit AccuScore.com for daily updates to the season forecast. All game forecasts are updated twice a day.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
The Red Sox may have dropped two of three to the Yankees and only have a 1.3 percent chance of catching the Yankees to win the AL East, but they still had a solid 4-2 week, including three road wins, and improved their chances of winning the AL wild-card berth. The Tampa Bay Rays were also 4-2 but did not improve as much as the Red Sox because their wins were all at home, and by going 4-2 the Rays only performed as well as they were expected to do.
Boston and Tampa Bay’s success comes at the expense of the Texas Rangers. Not only did they drop two of three to Tampa Bay, they finished with just a 3-4 week, which is the worst record by an AL team in playoff contention. The Rangers still have a better chance of making the playoffs than Boston because there is an 11.5 percent chance the Rangers can come back from 5.5 back to catch the Angels to win the West.
The Tigers and White Sox both went 3-3. Neither team got an edge this week over the other, but both lost points to the Minnesota Twins, who are still clinging to a 5 percent chance of winning the division thanks to a 5-2 week. AccuScore simulations do not give the Twins any chance of winning the wild card as they are 9.5 games behind Boston in that race vs. just 4.5 games behind Detroit for the AL Central lead.
| AMERICAN LEAGUE | WEEK 20 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
| TEAM | 17-Aug | 24-Aug | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| Boston Red Sox | 27.8% | 38.1% | 10.3% | 1.3% |
| Minnesota Twins | 2.1% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 5.0% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 11.8% | 14.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| New York Yankees | 99.2% | 99.6% | 0.4% | 98.3% |
| Seattle Mariners | 0.8% | 0.1% | -0.7% | 0.0% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 97.3% | 96.5% | -0.8% | 88.5% |
| Chicago White Sox | 40.6% | 38.8% | -1.8% | 38.6% |
| Detroit Tigers | 58.8% | 56.5% | -2.3% | 56.3% |
| Texas Rangers | 61.7% | 51.1% | -10.6% | 11.5% |
*Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City, Toronto, and Oakland are out of playoff contention
NATIONAL LEAGUE
The Phillies had a terrific 5-1 week with new starters Cliff Lee(notes) and Pedro Martinez(notes) exceeding expectations. The Phillies did not improve as much as they would have in most weeks because the Atlanta Braves managed to go 5-2 which included two wins over Florida. The Marlins saw their playoff chances cut by 13 percentage points because they went just 2-4 when their division rivals had good weeks. It also hurt the Marlins that both the Rockies and the Giants had winning weeks and they are the teams with the best chance of winning the wild card.
The Rockies were 5-1 and held onto their position as the current wild card winner. The Giants stayed close going 4-3. The two teams play four times this week and a 3-1 week in either team’s favor would deliver a significant boost.
A month ago the NL Central was the most competitive division in the National League, but it has become the least competitive. The Cardinals were AccuScor’s pick even when they briefly slipped to third in the division. After a 5-2 week combined with the Cubs 2-5 week the Cardinals hold a commanding eight-game lead. John Smoltz(notes) claimed a relatively minor mechanical flaw was to blame for his problems in Boston. If he is right and these are fixed (as his performance on Sunday might indicate) then it further solidifies the Cardinals’ chances to not only win the division, but possibly the World Series.
| NATIONAL LEAGUE | WEEK 20 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
| TEAM | 17-Aug | 24-Aug | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 81.8% | 90.2% | 8.4% | 86.9% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 94.0% | 98.0% | 4.0% | 97.9% |
| Atlanta Braves | 19.1% | 22.8% | 3.7% | 11.1% |
| Colorado Rockies | 45.9% | 48.6% | 2.7% | 7.2% |
| San Francisco Giants | 32.7% | 35.1% | 2.4% | 4.6% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 95.9% | 97.1% | 1.2% | 88.3% |
| Houston Astros | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0.4% | 0.1% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| Chicago Cubs | 12.4% | 3.4% | -9.0% | 1.9% |
| Florida Marlins | 17.6% | 4.6% | -13.0% | 2.0% |
*Arizona, Cincinnati, New York, Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Washington are out of playoff contention
