AccuScore: Playoff shifts after week one
AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 Season one at-bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series. Here's AccuScore.com's analysis of the 2009 MLB Season after one week of play.
There are 26 regular season MLB weeks, so no matter how good or how bad a team played in Week One, you know there is plenty of time to recover from a bad start or come back to earth. That said, don’t underestimate how costly a bad start can be or how beneficial a hot start can be.
Last year’s Detroit Tigers were pre-season favorites in the AL Central. They opened the 2008 Season with five home games against AL Central rivals, Kansas City and Chicago. They should have won three of these games and instead dropped all five. In one short week they went from a projected 87 wins (tied for best in the division) to 84 wins, never-mind the emotional let-down of such a bad start. A team with 87 wins in a competitive division typically has a strong 30-35 percent chance of making the playoffs, while a team projected for 84 wins has a 20-25 percent chance of winning. The Tigers’ playoff chances took a massive -10 point hit after just the first Week of 2008 Season.
The Mets’ late-season collapse was more newsworthy than the Tigers’ stumbling out of the blocks, but their respective losing streaks (no matter when they happened) were equally damaging to their playoff hopes.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
This year’s Tigers are the Cleveland Indians. In AccuScore’s April 5th (start of the season) season forecast, we simulated every game of the season based on projected starters and current lineups and the Indians made the playoffs nearly 31.6 percent of the time. After Cliff Lee got shelled twice and the team started 0-5, the Indians are down to just a 26.9 percent chance of making the playoffs (-4.7 point drop most in league).
| AMERICAN LEAGUE | WEEK 1 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | |||
| TEAM | APR 5 | WIN | LOSS | APR 12 | % DIFF |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 20.6% | 5 | 1 | 23.6% | 3.0% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 13.0% | 4 | 1 | 15.2% | 2.2% |
| Kansas City Royals | 24.0% | 2 | 3 | 25.0% | 1.0% |
| Minnesota Twins | 28.7% | 3 | 3 | 29.7% | 1.0% |
| Seattle Mariners | 18.6% | 4 | 2 | 19.6% | 1.0% |
| Detroit Tigers | 25.6% | 3 | 3 | 26.0% | 0.4% |
| Texas Rangers | 35.0% | 3 | 2 | 35.3% | 0.3% |
| New York Yankees | 39.8% | 3 | 2 | 39.8% | 0.0% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 39.9% | 2 | 3 | 39.3% | -0.6% |
| Chicago White Sox | 20.6% | 2 | 3 | 19.8% | -0.8% |
| Oakland Athletics | 22.4% | 2 | 3 | 21.6% | -0.8% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 35.1% | 2 | 3 | 34.1% | -1.0% |
| Boston Red Sox | 45.2% | 2 | 3 | 44.2% | -1.0% |
| Cleveland Indians | 31.6% | 0 | 5 | 26.9% | -4.7% |
On the opposite end of the Indians in the AL are a pair of AL East teams, the Blue Jays and Orioles. The Blue Jays played one more game and had one more win which is why their improvement (+3.0%) is better than the Orioles. However, the Orioles, had the better week in some ways because they picked up 4 wins over division rivals (Yankees, Rays). You may be surprised to see the Orioles only improve by +2.2 points, but remember, they played home games and even though they were underdogs in these games, they still should have pulled out two of five home games. Their four wins gave them two more wins than they were expected to have after Week 1.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
The Cubs may have just had a 3-2 record, but by virtue of winning three of five on the road against division rivals (Houston, Milwaukee) the Cubs’ wins also provided losses for NL Central opponents which helps the Cubs’ chances of repeating as division champs. This has a major impact on their playoff chances (+2.5 points).
The Florida Marlins were an excellent 4-1, but were only second in improvement (+2.4 points) because three of their wins were at home against Washington. The Marlins were supposed to win these games.
| NATIONAL LEAGUE | WEEK 1 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | |||
| TEAM | APR 5 | WIN | LOSS | APR 12 | % DIFF |
| Chicago Cubs | 40.3% | 3 | 2 | 42.8% | 2.5% |
| Florida Marlins | 24.5% | 4 | 1 | 26.9% | 2.4% |
| Atlanta Braves | 27.4% | 4 | 1 | 29.5% | 2.1% |
| San Diego Padres | 17.7% | 4 | 2 | 18.8% | 1.1% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 34.8% | 4 | 2 | 35.7% | 0.9% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 21.2% | 2 | 3 | 22.0% | 0.8% |
| Colorado Rockies | 13.8% | 3 | 2 | 14.6% | 0.8% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 42.5% | 3 | 3 | 42.8% | 0.3% |
| New York Mets | 31.9% | 3 | 2 | 32.2% | 0.3% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 6.5% | 3 | 2 | 6.7% | 0.2% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 22.6% | 2 | 3 | 21.8% | -0.8% |
| San Francisco Giants | 32.6% | 2 | 3 | 31.6% | -1.0% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 18.6% | 1 | 3 | 17.4% | -1.2% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 31.1% | 2 | 3 | 29.4% | -1.7% |
| Washington Nationals | 12.6% | 0 | 5 | 9.8% | -2.8% |
| Houston Astros | 21.7% | 1 | 4 | 18.0% | -3.7% |
Carrying up the rear are the Astros who were 1-4 with costly home games to the Cubs. The Nationals were winless and their playoff percentage point drop was just -2.8 percent which was better than the Astros’ -3.7%.
OTHER TRENDS OF NOTE
The season is only a week old, but so far this season the team that Vegas has set as the favorite has only won 52.6 percent of games. By season’s end this number will be as high as 56 percent. The team that won over 50 percent of AccuScore’s simulation (often not the team favored in Vegas) has won 57.7 percent of the time, so like with the NBA, AccuScore is significantly out-performing Vegas when it comes to picking game winners.
The biggest source of early season upsets was heavy home underdogs. The Road teams that are heavy favorites have only gone 4-10 collectively (29 percent). In 2008, these heavy road favorites won 53 percent of the time so you can expect this early season trend to reverse itself.
