AccuScore NLCS projections

AccuScore simulations have the Dodgers favored slightly to reach the World Series, winning 53 percent of the time. The AccuScore Super Computer arrived at this conclusion after running more than 10,000 simulations for the 2008 NLCS, calculating how each team’s performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent’s abilities, roster moves, weather and more. We simulated each game one pitch at a time and then replayed the game a minimum of 10,000 times to generate the AccuScore Forecast.

Who Torre and Charlie Manuel decide to pitch in each game will make the biggest difference in the outcome of this series. Because of the way the schedule is laid out, it is possible for both teams to go with short three-man rotations. This scenario would allow each staff ace (Derek Lowe for the Dodgers and Cole Hamels for the Phillies) to potentially make three starts during the seven-game series. Each pitcher could start Game 1, pitch in Game 4 on three days rest, and then be available for the final game on regular rest. Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda would be the other two starters for L.A. while Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer would round out the rotation for Philadelphia. This is the scenario AccuScore has based these simulations pitting each team’s best pitchers against one another.

If each manager were to use a fourth starter, the likely candidates are Clayton Kershaw and Joe Blanton. This match-up would favor the Dodgers because the Phillies (particularly Ryan Howard and Chase Utley) are more vulnerable against lefthanders, and Kershaw would be pitching at home. Blanton is average, and he has a tendency to walk batters and give up home runs. Both weaknesses play into the hands of the Dodgers, who hit four home runs in the NLDS and has a patient lineup. Greg Maddux is another option for Torre to use as a fourth starter, and he too would be favored against Blanton.

In each of the first four games the home team is solidly favored which means a split is the most likely scenario. The pivotal game in the series looks to be Game 5, the final game at Dodger Stadium. In this match-up AccuScore gives Billingsley a sizable edge over Myers with L.A. favored in 65 percent of simulations. The series would then shift to Philadelphia for Game 6 which is the only contest that the road team is projected as the favorite. Kuroda has the slight edge over Moyer in the match-up (53 percent) which could be a potential closeout game for the Dodgers. If the Phillies were to pull out the win in that game however, they would be the favorites in Game 7 with Hamels on the mound at home. AccuScore simulations project that if the Dodgers prevail, they would likely do it in six games. If the Phillies were to win, it will likely be in a full seven-game series.

There are several key areas to watch over the course of the NLCS. The Dodgers were able to completely shut down the Cubs in the NLDS, allowing six runs over three games. Chicago’s lineup was dominated by right-handed batters that had a tendency to strike out. Jonathan Broxton closed out Game 3 while Takashi Saito struggled in his outing in Game 2, and had to be replaced. Torre has said all along that Saito was his closer, but when the time came Broxton was the man. Expect Broxton to be one finishing games.

Philadelphia has two monster left-handed bats in Howard and Utley. The return from injury of left-handed reliever Hong-Chih Kuo could be a major factor because of his dominance against lefties (.214 OBP against) while being equally effective against righties. Those two big bats for Philadelphia were actually mostly silent in the NLDS. Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and Jimmy Rollins actually carried most of the offensive load. The Dodgers have quietly built their own supporting cast around Manny Ramirez. The most important addition has been that of shortstop Rafael Furcal who has upgraded the infield in a major way both offensively and defensively.