Baseball's reverse Big Bang theory

Remember the Big Bang theory from your high school science class. It's the idea that the universe was created by a cosmic explosion billions of years ago which hurled matter in all different directions. The guess is that the galaxy is still expanding and will continue to do so forever.

This theory is exactly the opposite of baseball's version of the Big Bang. The Baseball Boom occurred in December 2000 when Alex Rodriguez signed with the Rangers for the nice round sum of 252 million dollars. It may last for billions of years as the largest baseball contract ever – or perhaps just the worst.

Unlike the scientist's Big Bang, it turns out that A-Rod's cataclysm was actually an IMPLOSION from which its effects are just beginning to be felt.

It has taken baseball's barons a few seasons to figure this out, but even Rangers' owner Tom Hicks would now agree that as good as A-Rod may be, it doesn't make much sense to pay him $700,000 per homer – which is why some of the biggest stars in the game can now be purchased as easily as a pre-owned Lexus.

This week, the used car lot was the Arizona Biltmore, site of the winter baseball meetings. Want a pre-owned Manny Ramirez at $20-million a year? The Red Sox will deal. A used Curt Schilling perhaps – high mileage but still a few good years left – call the Diamondbacks. NO REASONABLE OFFER WILL BE REFUSED!

The game of baseball economics has changed dramatically. "Everybody has come to their senses," says baseball Executive of the Year, Brian Sabean. The Giants' General Manager believes "financial sanity" is taking over and "fewer people are going to be inclined to do megadeals."

In a nutshell, there are many more sellers than there are buyers, which means prices are coming down, down, down. And the days of $15 million a year are going, going, gone for most free agents. You are not going to see wild overbidding for players, says agent Matt Sosnick. "You're also not going to see eBay at $250 a share."

Sosnick represents a growing stable of young talent, like National League Rookie of the Year Dontrelle Willis. Sosnick's clients may never see the head-spinning days of the late 1990's when CNBC was must-see TV and when a handful of owners let their egos get control of their checkbooks. But Sosnick is confident "you'll see a bunch of guys from four to nine million," which after all, isn't bad money if you can get it.

There will always be a few big spenders out there. George Steinbrenner will always be Steinbrenner and in any given year, Peter Angelos may bust out his wallet. But one significant change in the ownership world is that the corporate giants are cashing in their chips. Disney won a World Series title with the Angels and sold the team almost before the Electric Light Parade was over. Fox is about to unload its money pit, better known as the Dodgers. AOL Time Warner is going to do a serious tomahawk chop to the Braves payroll. Big Bang has turned to big bust.

The A's, Twins and Marlins all made the playoffs with payrolls around $50 million and Florida won it all despite spending only about a third as much as the Yankees. From an ownership standpoint, the handwriting is on the wall -- and on new contracts. LESS IS MORE.

It just like Sabean says: "More front offices, from ownership on down, are willing to say no now."

Larry Beil is a Yahoo! Sports analyst. Send Larry a question or comment for potential use in a future column or webcast.

Updated on Friday, Nov 14, 2003 8:44 pm, EST

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