AccuScore: Projected NL standings
SIMULATION BASED FORECASTING & METHODOLOGY
AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 Season one at bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series. Here's AccuScore.com's analysis of the 2009 National League.
National League East
Last year the Phillies rode a 13-3 hot streak in the final games of September to the NL East title. That paved the way to the Phillies eventually winning the World Series. The first step to repeating for Philadelphia will be winning the NL East once again, something they're accomplishing in AccuScore simulations.
AccuScore has simulated the season 10,000 times, with the Phillies winning the NL East in 34.5 percent of those simulations. The Mets are finishing in second again, ending up five games behind Philadelphia. New York improved their bullpen with Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz, but rotation issues will keep them from competing. Florida, Atlanta, and Washington are all in the midst of rebuilding efforts, with Florida having the best chance to emerge as a contender in the NL East for the 2009 season.
NL EAST | WIN | LOSS | +/- WINS | WIN DIVISION | MAKE PLAYOFFS | MAKE | WIN | WIN WORLD SERIES |
89 | 73 | -3 | 34.50% | 40.50% | 23.20% | 12.10% | 6.00% | |
84 | 78 | -5 | 25.60% | 31.40% | 15.90% | 7.20% | 3.00% | |
77 | 85 | -7 | 15.30% | 20.30% | 8.50% | 3.20% | 1.10% | |
77 | 85 | 5 | 14.70% | 19.80% | 8.20% | 3.40% | 1.10% | |
73 | 89 | 14 | 9.90% | 13.50% | 5.10% | 1.40% | 0.40% | |
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Nationa League Central
The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers had one of the better races in baseball last summer, with the Cubs eventually pulling away, leaving the Brewers with the Wild Card spot. The NL Central is stronger this year in AccuScore simulations, with everyone but the Pirates simulated to be at, or over .500. Still, when it comes down to it, the Cubs and Brewers remain the top options.
Chicago is winning the Central in 33.3 percent of simulations, thanks in part to maintaining the majority of their 2008 roster, while seeing Milwaukee lose their top two pitchers. Milwaukee has a 20.2 percent chance of winning the division, and is currently the favorite for the Wild Card in the NL with an 85-77 record. Houston and St. Louis would probably in competition in one of the other two NL divisions, but find themselves sitting behind the top two teams in the Central. The Reds are a sleeper team to watch, with a lot of young talent on both sides of the ball and a 12 percent chance of winning the division.
NL CENTRAL | WIN | LOSS | +/- WINS | WIN DIVISION | MAKE PLAYOFFS | MAKE | WIN | WIN WORLD SERIES |
Chicago Cubs | 92 | 70 | -5 | 33.30% | 42.40% | 26.00% | 15.60% | 7.90% |
Milwaukee Brewers | 85 | 77 | -5 | 20.20% | 29.60% | 15.10% | 7.70% | 3.30% |
84 | 78 | -2 | 18.40% | 26.70% | 13.00% | 6.90% | 2.80% | |
81 | 81 | -5 | 14.30% | 22.70% | 10.00% | 4.90% | 1.70% | |
79 | 83 | 5 | 12.00% | 19.70% | 8.40% | 4.20% | 1.30% | |
62 | 100 | -5 | 1.80% | 2.90% | 0.70% | 0.20% | 0.00% | |
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National League West
The NL West features one of the best teams in the National League, and one of the worst all around divisions in baseball. It's no surprised that the Los Angeles Dodgers are running away with the division in AccuScore simulations. AccuScore has simulated the season 10,000 times and has the Dodgers winning the West in 40.1 percent of simulations, with a seven game lead over second place San Francisco.
The Giants and Diamondbacks are no match for the talent the Dodgers possess, but still have a shot at the Wild Card, with both teams finishing above .500 this season, thanks to strong starting rotations. As for the final two teams in the West, the Rockies and Padres aren't ready to compete in 2009, with both teams finishing with a 73-89 record.
NL WEST | WIN | LOSS | +/- WINS | WIN DIVISION | MAKE PLAYOFFS | MAKE | WIN | WIN WORLD SERIES |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 93 | 69 | 9 | 40.10% | 47.00% | 29.00% | 17.40% | 8.80% |
84 | 78 | 12 | 22.00% | 29.60% | 14.60% | 7.00% | 3.00% | |
82 | 80 | 0 | 19.70% | 26.90% | 12.40% | 5.70% | 2.00% | |
73 | 89 | -1 | 9.60% | 13.90% | 5.00% | 1.60% | 0.50% | |
73 | 89 | 10 | 8.60% | 13.00% | 4.80% | 1.60% | 0.50% | |
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