AccuScore: Tigers, Rockies should hold on

AccuScore uses past performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, matchup and game conditions. Using projected starting lineups, AccuScore simulates each game one at-bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game, AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series. Here‘s AccuScore.com‘s analysis after 25 weeks of play. Visit AccuScore.com for daily updates to the season forecast and all game forecasts updated twice a day.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

The AL Central is really the only remaining playoff race in the American League. The Rangers are technically still alive, but after blowing Sunday’s game vs. the

Rays they are all but mathematically eliminated. The Rangers make the playoffs in 46 out of 10,000 simulations.

The Tigers are clinging to a two-game lead in the AL Central with a huge four-game series against the Twins starting Monday. AccuScore actually has the Twins a slight

to solid favorite in three of the four games, including the first game of the series with the Twins' Nick Blackburn(notes) facing Tigers rookie Rick Porcello(notes).

Even though the Twins are winning over 50 percent of the simulations in three of four games, the most common result in the series is a 2-2 split. This fact, combined with the Tigers' two-game lead, is enough to keep the Tigers a solid 69.6 percent favorite to win the AL Central. However, the percentage is a drop from 82.8 percent last week.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The Colorado Rockies hold a 2.5-game lead for the NL wild-card berth over the Atlanta Braves. The Braves are expected to close this gap by winning nearly 67 percent

of their remaining game simulations compared to 50 percent for Colorado.

The Braves are heavy favorites in their three-game home series against the Florida

Marlins beginning Monday, which is why the Marlins only have a 0.2 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Giants are also nearly mathematically eliminated with the same 0.2 percent chance.

Most likely the Braves will not have time to cover the 2.5 games. On average in simulations, they are finishing 1.5 games behind the Rockies.

The other race in the National League is for seeding. The Dodgers not only currently have three more wins than the Cardinals and Phillies, they also are solid

65 percent favored in the rest of their game simulations. The Dodgers have a 92 percent chance of finishing with the best record in the National League.

The Phillies and Cardinals both have 90 wins, but the Phillies have one more game to play and have a higher win percentage over the rest of their game simulations.

On average, the Phillies are finishing with a one-game lead over the Cardinals, and Philadelphia has a 79 percent chance of finishing with the second-best record in the National League.