AccuScore: Playoff shifts after week 10
AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game one at-bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series. Here's AccuScore.com's analysis of the 2009 MLB Season after 10 weeks of play.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
The Red Sox have managed to lead this American League list two weeks in a row thanks to their resounding sweep of the Yankees (wins are doubly important when they are over a primary division rival) and their taking two of three on the road in Philadelphia. Speaking of the Yankees, if not for the fluke error in their first game vs. the Mets, they would have been at the bottom of this list. The Tampa Bay Rays are getting attention for their quality of play. They went 5-2 this week which was good enough to place fourth in playoff chance improvement, and they are now ahead of Toronto in their overall chances.
In the AL West, the Angels are making their move thanks to Jered Weaver's(notes) hot start. They went 4-2, which helped them capitalize on Texas' 2-4 week. The Angels plus-8.3 percent improvement accounts for most of the Rangers' minus-11.8 percent. It is a little surprising to see Oakland improve their playoff chances despite going 2-5. They are forecasted to improve because their young pitching staff, including Vin Mazzaro(notes) (2-1, 1.37 ERA), is showing promise and the team should play better the rest of the year than they have most of the season.
The Twins were 4-3, but they were over .500 in road games at Oakland and at the Chicago Cubs. When you win over 50 percent of your road games that usually indicates you have won one or two more games than you were expected to win. The White Sox and Tigers were both 4-4 and dropped in the rankings. The White Sox were hurt by losing three of five to Detroit at home. The Tigers were hurt by their performance at Pittsburgh. Based on the simulations they should have won two of three and not lost two of three.
TEAM | 8-Jun | 15-Jun | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
51.1% | 59.6% | 8.5% | 41.8% | |
35.4% | 43.7% | 8.3% | 37.6% | |
39.5% | 46.5% | 7.0% | 44.0% | |
Tampa Bay Rays | 27.4% | 32.6% | 5.2% | 16.9% |
5.3% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 8.6% | |
11.2% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 11.4% | |
13.7% | 15.2% | 1.5% | 13.6% | |
29.8% | 29.0% | -0.8% | 14.6% | |
10.0% | 8.9% | -1.1% | 3.1% | |
14.6% | 13.4% | -1.2% | 10.0% | |
14.6% | 9.0% | -5.6% | 8.0% | |
49.4% | 42.7% | -6.7% | 23.7% | |
39.6% | 28.8% | -10.8% | 25.7% | |
58.4% | 46.6% | -11.8% | 41.0% |
NATIONAL LEAGUE
The Rockies have won 11 straight (7-0 in Week 10) including an impressive sweep on the road in Milwaukee. This performance has helped them skyrocket by plus-11.8 percentage points, more than quadrupling their playoff chances. Another NL West team, the Giants, also had a good week going 5-2. They won two of three on the road vs. division rival Arizona, which helped them improve by nearly eight percentage points and hurt Arizona by lowering their chances by six percent. The Dodgers have held on to their lofty #1 spot by going 3-2.
The Brewers offense has struggled, scoring just eight runs in their home series vs the Rockies. This should be a temporary setback, but it was enough to drop them by minus-6.5 percent. Despite their drop-off, the Brewers still have the best chance to win the division at 38.6 percent. They were helped this week by the poor performance by the Cardinals (2-4). The Cubs were just 2-4, but they moved up because the Brewers and Cardinals struggled. You may wonder why the Cubs at .500 are projected to do substantially better than the .500 Reds. The Cubs have underperformed and as players like Alfonso Soriano(notes) start to play better they should win more than half of their remaining games.
The Marlins had their first great week in over a month going 5-2. Their week would have been better if their wins had been against NL playoff competition. Their sweep in Toronto helps, but they are not in competition with Toronto for a playoff spot. The Phillies started the week out well winning two of three vs the Mets, but they ended the week continuing their poor play at home. They are now just 13-16 at home vs a stellar 23-9 on the road. The Phillies dropped minus-6 percent with most of that going to the Marlins.
NATIONAL LEAGUE | WEEK 10 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
TEAM | 8-Jun | 15-Jun | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
3.7% | 15.5% | 11.8% | 8.2% | |
16.6% | 24.3% | 7.7% | 13.1% | |
10.6% | 17.9% | 7.3% | 11.6% | |
Chicago Cubs | 19.9% | 22.3% | 2.4% | 14.0% |
2.7% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 1.9% | |
8.5% | 9.4% | 0.9% | 5.5% | |
0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
17.4% | 16.9% | -0.5% | 11.2% | |
79.7% | 79.2% | -0.5% | 72.9% | |
33.7% | 31.1% | -2.6% | 21.3% | |
46.9% | 44.1% | -2.8% | 32.8% | |
4.7% | 1.9% | -2.8% | 1.0% | |
16.7% | 12.2% | -4.5% | 7.1% | |
14.0% | 9.2% | -4.8% | 4.8% | |
69.6% | 63.6% | -6.0% | 55.9% | |
55.3% | 48.8% | -6.5% | 38.6% | |
