October 27, 2007

Forget the odds


“How do you like that, calling me a scrawny little nine-pound weakling, when it’s perfectly obvious I’m a scrawny 10-pound weakling.” -- Daffy Duck

According to Accuscore, the Rockies have only an 8.8% chance of coming back and winning this World Series.  The people who come up with these numbers have done so with enough data in the books that the stack of papers would feel at home in the mountains looming over Denver. Okay, maybe that’s hyperbole, but they’ve got a lot of info that gives them the confidence to back up this assertion. Of course, there’s one little tiny catch in that this isn’t even close to the most difficult odds that the Rockies have had to overcome this year, and just under 9% to me feels like a comfortable shoe. Come on. Give us a real challenge. Not even cracking a sweat here.

On September 16, 2007 the Colorado Rockies had about a 1% chance of making the playoffs according to the best projection models out there.  Three days and three wins later, it was still less than 2%. In fact, despite not losing at all that week we didn’t crack the 10% threshold until sweeping the Padres in a series at PETCO on September 23rd. After playing for the final two weeks of the season under the gun, living on edge for each and every game, and still making it, a couple of days at less than 10% feels like a day at the beach. Sort of like Venice Beach, actually, and Boston’s the guy with too big muscles striking a pose in his Speedo. Ewww. You’re about to see some real hotness Red Sox.

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