Big League Stew - MLB

Using the best technology available today, Slumpbot .200 identifies a few players who are currently having trouble and then offers solutions for recovery.

Jason Bay(notes), New York Mets

Data: .259/.347/.402 6 HR, 47 RBI

Malfunction: Mets fans are getting all too used to watching big-time sluggers come to Citi Field and then watching their home runs disappear. Last year, it was David Wright(notes), who went from 33 homers in 2008 to just 10 in 2009.

Wright has recovered somewhat, with 15 homers this year, so now it's Jason Bay's turn. He has just six homers for the entire season, and his OPS is 172 points lower than last year.

Diagnosis: This isn't the first time that Bay has had a season-long power outage. In 2007, the year before the three-team trade that brought him to Boston, he went from being one of the top outfielders in the National League to one of the worst, dropping 182 points of OPS and leading to concerns that he'd already peaked at the age of 28. He fended off those concerns by hammering the ball in 2008 — both in Pittsburgh and Boston — but now his problems have returned.

His power outage can't exactly be blamed on luck; his BABIP and line drive rate are both higher than they were last year. It can't be blamed on Citi Field, either: he's hitting .277/.371/.459 at home, and just .243/.326/.354 on the road. The home numbers are a little off his career numbers, but well within spitting distance. It's the crazy away numbers that have been keeping him down — well, that, and his nightmarish July, during which he's batted a homerless .194, with just three extra-base hits in 79 plate appearances. His rate stats haven't changed much, so one has to assume that he'll improve — though it's an open question whether that will happen in August or not until next April.

Reboot Directions: A month ago, Fangraphs' Dave Cameron wrote that in this case, it was likely that "a slump is just a slump," and Bay would sooner or later resume hitting up to his usual standard. Because his walk rate, strikeout rate, and line drive rate are all essentially unchanged, that's a plausible argument. But Bay has had a season long slump before, and it looks like he's in the midst of doing it again. Sometimes a slump is just a really, really long slump. We'll see how he does when he comes back from the mild concussion he suffered over the weekend in Los Angeles. 

What other players are currently slumping?

Justin Smoak(notes), Seattle Mariners .200/.293/.341, 10 HR, 38 RBI
Smoak, the uber-prospect who was good enough to bring Cliff Lee(notes) to the Rangers, was having a bad rookie year with the Rangers. But since coming to Seattle his slump has gone nuclear. He's just 9-for-55 in a Mariner uniform, good for a .164 batting average and a horrifying 1/22 walk-to-strikeout ratio. He has oodles of potential, and he'll still likely turn into the star that the Mariners expected they were getting, but for the first time in his professional career, there are some whispered doubts.

Mike Pelfrey(notes), New York Mets 10-5, 4.00 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 1.57 K/BB
On June 30, the Mets were 43-34, just a game and a half out of first place, and Mike Pelfrey strode to the mound with a 10-2 record and a 2.71 ERA. Then he got knocked out in the fifth inning after giving up 12 hits and four earned runs and he hasn't pitched more than five innings since. In his last five starts, Pelfrey has given up 23 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings, and his ERA has ballooned. The lesson? He wasn't quite as good as he was pitching early in the season, with his indifferent strikeout rate and mediocre K/BB. He's still having a fine season overall, but he was due for a correction. Unfortunately, the Mets' season has gone south along with Pelfrey's.

Brennan Boesch(notes), Detroit Tigers .305/.371/.519, 12 HR, 51 RBI
A little over a month ago, I wrote this about Boesch: "He clearly has a powerful bat, but all signs point to a major cooloff once the league catches up to him." Since I wrote those words, he's batted .254/.346/.381, and right now he's 4-for-his-last-42, with no extra-base hits in his last 12 games. He has vastly improved his BB/K ratio, which should figure well for the future, and he's still having about the best rookie year that anyone could ever have imagined. But he isn't as good as he looked when he first came up. It happens.

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14 Comments

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  1. Anthony
    1. Posted by Anthony Wed Jul 28, 2010 6:29 pm EDT

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    I don't think Bay is slumping...he just sucks. Nice job, Omar.
  2. BaseballFan
    2. Posted by BaseballFan Wed Jul 28, 2010 7:07 pm EDT

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    Bay's "performance" is no surprise.
  3. Paht
    3. Posted by Paht Wed Jul 28, 2010 7:25 pm EDT

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    should've resigned with boston. Karmas a b*tch
  4. joshtrel99
    4. Posted by joshtrel99 Wed Jul 28, 2010 7:54 pm EDT

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    The mets are where careers go to die....
  5. Bilal
    5. Posted by Bilal Wed Jul 28, 2010 8:37 pm EDT

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    [profane]ing jason gay and mike pelfreak
  6. Chad Scott
    6. Posted by Chad Scott Wed Jul 28, 2010 9:25 pm EDT

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    http://halloffamepicks.com/the_latest
    Check out the free baseball picks on this website
  7. tomhapple
    7. Posted by tomhapple Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:53 pm EDT

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    I've not gone to a game all year for the first time in maybe 25years. This team sucks and I would spend a dime to see them, never mind the Brooklyn Dodger HOF you have to walk through before you sit down.
    Who is the ass that put up a Dodge in Citi Field???????? Jackie was a F----K'n Dodger!
    What a piece of crap we been handed. Wilpon family please sell the team, you never played an inning of meaningful baseball and it show throughtout the organization.
    The best thing you have is the TV team. I'm not coming any more.
  8. matt h
    8. Posted by matt h Thu Jul 29, 2010 9:29 am EDT

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    Crackdown on steroids must be hurting him
  9. Captain
    9. Posted by Captain Thu Jul 29, 2010 10:06 am EDT

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    Being a Red Sox fan who has turned against Bay, this is great news.
  10. Run 'n Gun
    10. Posted by Run 'n Gun Thu Jul 29, 2010 9:49 pm EDT

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    I have two words for anyone who thinks the Mets signing Bay was a bad move: Carlos Beltran. His first year as a Met was awful, just .266 with limited power and the next year he broke out with 41 home runs.
  11. RR_Man
    11. Posted by RR_Man Fri Jul 30, 2010 12:57 am EDT

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    So another big one gets away (Oswalt) and the Mets do nothing...but wait, we have O. Perez!!!! Way to go Omar!!!
  12. Lester
    12. Posted by Lester Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:23 am EDT

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    bay is the poster child for resetting of the league - nick markakis, ian kinsler, jose lopez, jj hardy, pedro sandoval, and dozens of others all have dramatic power drop offs in their prime, and it just so happens that this winter the hgh test in england and testing in the minor leagues- however bay got 16 million a year for 4 years to be a cleanup hitter- he is just a triple a hitter-a corner outfielder with 10 homers and 65 rbis-i wish the mets could him for fraud in that contract- he will prove to be the worst position player, non-injured free agent signing in history-maybe so good will come and the general managers will finally recognize the source of the inflated numbers
  13. davidw
    13. Posted by davidw Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:12 am EDT

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    mets are done until they remove the management...
  14. USAFVET
    14. Posted by USAFVET Mon Aug 02, 2010 6:48 pm EDT

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    Why keep blaming the players. The real problem is the bum who is manageing the team. But I guess its not PC to say this. The current manager could not manage a one hole out house. Get rid of him now and maybe the team would land up a laughing stock of the National league last the last two years.

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