Big League Stew - MLB

Using the best technology available today, SlumpBot .200 identifies a few players who are currently having trouble and then offers solutions for recovery.

A.J. Burnett(notes), New York Yankees

Data: 11-9, 4.33 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Malfunction: For the first four months of the season, Burnett was pitching like a guy who deserved his $80 million contract. But heading into the postseason, he's pitching like the guy who's frustrated every team that has ever paid him. After owning a 3.53 ERA on July 31, the Yankee righty has gone 1-5 with a 6.14 ERA and in four of his last nine starts, he's given up at least six runs. It's hard to understand how a guy with stuff that good can get blown out in every other start. As Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes, "In his first season as a Yankee, Burnett has shown the ability to be unhittable and awful, often in the same game."

Diagnosis: Actually, Burnett's success through his first 20 starts was a bit of a mirage. He was only striking out eight men per nine innings, way below the 9.5 he averaged from 2007-2008, and was walking 4.5 per nine, compared to 3.5 the previous two years. Of all the determinants and descriptors of a pitcher's success, few are more important than the ratio of strikeouts to walks. Two is a magic number. If you strike out more than twice as many people as you walk, you're generally a good pitcher. This is the first full season since 2002 that A.J.'s K/BB has fallen below 2.0, and while he was able to succeed for the first few months, it eventually caught up with him — especially now that he's set a career high in home runs allowed with 24.

Reboot Directions: Yankees fans are starting to turn on him and John Harper of the New York Daily News wonders whether Burnett deserves to start for the Yankees in the division series. If he can't figure out how to command his fastball and find the strike zone on a consistent basis, his relationship with the fans and media will only get worse.

What other players have hit a bit of a rough patch?

* * * 

Jarrod Washburn(notes), Detroit Tigers

Data: 9-9, 3.78 ERA, 1.19 WHIP (1-3, 7.33 ERA, 1.56 WHIP since trade to Tigers)

Malfunction: Hate to say I told you so, Wash, but here's what I wrote right after the trade: "I don't mean to rain on the man's parade — he really is having a lovely year — but honestly, it just can't last." The Tigers haven't minded too much, since they were only five games over .500 and 1.5 games ahead in first place before they got him, and now they're 10 games over .500 and four games ahead.

Diagnosis: So what's wrong with Jarrod Washburn? Unfortunately, a left knee injury has turned him back into the average pitcher he was in five out of the last six seasons. Washburn doesn't have perfect control and he doesn't have great stuff, he doesn't strike many people out, and he gives up a ton of line drives and a fair number of homers. If he weren't left-handed, it's hard to imagine he'd still be in the league. Here's how he described his one win for Detroit: "My command wasn't good, my stuff wasn't good, but we gutted it out and we won." As best-case scenarios go, that isn't particularly reassuring.

Reboot Directions: It remains unseen if Washburn will pitch again for the Tigers this season. He had a short outing against the Royals on Tuesday and has been scratched from Sunday's start against the Twins. This is a contract year for the 35-year old southpaw and because most front offices operate under the principle of WHIL (well, he is a lefty), it's not hard to imagine that Washburn will find a job somewhere. But he won't get a contract more than two years long and he really doesn't deserve to be more than year to year at this point in his career.

* * *

Nick Markakis(notes), Baltimore Orioles

Data: .297/.348/.457, 16 HR, 94 RBI

Malfunction: Steady and reliable Nick Markakis is having another decent year, but he's been cold for a month now, and the older he gets the quicker he'll move from "promising" to "disappointing." His homers have now decreased for two years in a row, and thanks to the slump his OPS is nearly 100 points down from 2008. More concerning, he has half as many walks this year as last year. Of course, the slump may largely be bad luck. During the past month, he's actually striking out less, and walking exactly the same amount, as he did before, while his BABIP has fallen by 50 points. Unfortunately, that doesn't account for the walks.

Diagnosis: Markakis may be getting unlucky, but this year was supposed to be his breakout. Last year, he was the only under-25 outfielder in the majors with an OPS above .890; this year, he's a 25-year old (turning 26 in a month) with an OPS just over .800. Last year, his OPS spiked because walked in 14.2 percent of his plate appearances (against 8.6 percent in 2007); this year, he's walking in just 7.4 percent, barely half his mark from last year. The other problem with Markakis comes in his homers: his homers have declined in each of the last two years, and while most good young hitters tend to get stronger as they get older, he seems to be in a holding pattern. Okay, maybe there's been slight growth: According to Hit Tracker Online, his homers have gone about a foot further on average this year than last year. As a result, whereas last year nine of his 20 homers were only "Just Enough" to clear the fence, this year only four of 16 are "Just Enough," and all the rest made it over with ease. Still, even if he's not actively getting worse, he's just not getting better, which is what the O's were hoping for when they gave him a new contract.

Reboot Directions: The slippage in walk rate is the most worrisome thing, even more than the stagnation in his power development. He has a .299 career batting average largely because he's got a high BABIP (.330 for his career), which means that his OBP probably won't ever be catastrophic. But there's a huge, huge difference between walking 50 times a year and 100 times a year, between a .350 OBP and a .400 OBP. Over the course of a year, that difference can amount to dozens of runs for a ballclub. Whatever offensive development Markakis has yet to go, it all has to start with the walks.

* * *

Jermaine Dye(notes), Chicago White Sox The last time I wrote about Dye, he was performing like he was half-asleep, but since then he's been catatonic with just eight hits in 59 at-bats. Like Burnett, Jermaine Dye was in the middle of another good season at the end of July. He had 23 homers, 63 RBIs and an .891 OPS through 96 games. Since then he has just two homers and a .164 batting average, and his OPS has fallen more than a hundred points. Not known for being a paragon of health, Dye has only reached 600 PAs in two of the last seven seasons; he's currently at 541. According to the Chicago Tribune, he "doesn't think his slump stems from wearing down in the second half," but considering his lengthy injury history it's hard to believe that his hitting problems are completely unrelated to his health.

Carl Crawford(notes), Tampa Bay Rays Crawford had an awful, injury-plagued 2008, and by comparison this has been a comeback campaign. He's back above .300 for the season, he's stolen over 50 bases again, and his OPS is just a peep above .800 again. But he's no superstar, and when he's not hitting his way on base he doesn't have much to offer. This month, he's hitting just .230 with a .626 OPS and as many stolen bases as caught stealings, three. He's been the face of the Rays franchise, but he's a limited threat and GM Andrew Friedman has to decide to pick up CC's $10 million option for 2010 or if it's soon going to be Desmond Jennings time in St. Petersburg. 

Marco Scutaro(notes), Toronto Blue Jays Scooter's still having the year of his life, but he's finally started to come back to earth just a bit. Over the past month, he's hitting .222, and his last day with an OPS over .800 was Sept. 2. He's already set career highs in every single offensive category, except for RBIs, in which he's merely tied his career high. On the other hand, even if he keeps slumping through the end of the year, it will still be a career year. When a guy like him, an over-30 middle infielder, begins hitting for the first time in his life, everyone starts waiting for the other shoe to drop. Well, it's dropping, but that doesn't mean he still didn't have a fantastic year. 

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44 Comments

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  1. BaseballFan
    1. Posted by BaseballFan Fri Sep 18, 2009 4:43 pm EDT

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    What's the big surprise? Burnett is pitching just like he has in previous years. He's the same-old A.J. - a barely-better-than .500 pitcher with a 4+ ERA.
  2. Kb
    2. Posted by Kb Fri Sep 18, 2009 6:44 pm EDT

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    yankees knew who they were getting, burnett is a career .500 pitcher with an ERA around 4. one outstanding year means nothing, everyone usually has one of those, the only diff is that he cashed in on it.
  3. John F
    3. Posted by John F Fri Sep 18, 2009 6:46 pm EDT

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    No. 2, that's gotta be it. That's why they have almost 3 times as many titles as any other franchise. Hump.
  4. angloamer
    4. Posted by angloamer Fri Sep 18, 2009 8:25 pm EDT

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    I do not know why the Yanks thought this guy would be there saviour, he has always been a great strikeout pitcher, but never had a very good ERA, and that is the only thing that matters. They overpaid for him. They should have waited a year and focused on the real talent on Toronto, which is Haladay. They had better hope they can pound their way threw the playoffs, with their great hitting, because right now your pitching is below average, and headed downward. Age is becomming a big factor.
  5. Kenneth C
    5. Posted by Kenneth C Fri Sep 18, 2009 8:31 pm EDT

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    Christ "imreadytoplay" I wish the Astros had a "9" year drought as you call it. LMAO! I heard a stat somewhere something like the Yankees have won 28% of all World Series ever played and have played in 40% of all World Series ever played. The Stros made it there once in 50 years and you would have thought they were the Gods of baseball around here. And they got swept by some team that hadn't won it for like 50 years. Its really unbelievable how the Yankees get dissed..And I think they won in 96,98,99, and 2000! That would hold most fans over for 100 years or so! I don't care how much they pay there guys, they have class. I guess that is why they are not only the most hated team, but also the most loved. Yanks, here is an open invitation to move on down to Houston!
  6. Leifericson
    6. Posted by Leifericson Sat Sep 19, 2009 12:46 am EDT

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    The Yankees should hope the Twins catch the Tigers.
    The Tigers are a tough 1st round playoff team.
  7. Mark C
    7. Posted by Mark C Sat Sep 19, 2009 12:47 am EDT

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    Write a positive article for once you no talent hack....AJ Burnett will dominate in the playoffs. You owe everyone a nice apology when it happens.
  8. Mark C
    8. Posted by Mark C Sat Sep 19, 2009 12:47 am EDT

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    Write a positive article for once you no talent hack....AJ Burnett will dominate in the playoffs. You owe everyone a nice apology when it happens.
  9. Leifericson
    9. Posted by Leifericson Sat Sep 19, 2009 12:48 am EDT

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    Actually the NY Yankees have won 4 world series in the last 30.
    4, 7, what's the difference?
    3?
  10. Leifericson
    10. Posted by Leifericson Sat Sep 19, 2009 12:54 am EDT

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    Yeah the Yankees did do well last century.
    This century the Red Sox are in the lead with 2.
    (No one else has more than 1 yet.)
    Let's make it 3!
  11. Leifericson
    11. Posted by Leifericson Sat Sep 19, 2009 12:58 am EDT

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    Yeah the Yankees did do well last century.
    This century the Red Sox are in the lead with 2.
    (No one else has more than 1 yet.)
    Lets make it 3!
  12. Mike
    12. Posted by Mike Sat Sep 19, 2009 1:42 am EDT

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    I can't believe he's being considered for the AL Cy Young this year. Are all of the pitchers really that bad this season?
  13. kevin
    13. Posted by kevin Sat Sep 19, 2009 11:55 am EDT

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    This just in if anyone sees the Texas Rangers offense please call the FBI, its been missing for over a week. The Yankees will lose to the Tigers in the first round of the playoffs and we will not hear from these roided up yankee fans again til next year. Burnett is a bum, and Choke Choke alias cc sabathia will get whacked in the playoffs. mark my word. Red sox versus Cardinals World Series
  14. Leifericson
    14. Posted by Leifericson Sat Sep 19, 2009 12:11 pm EDT

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    The Tigers would be much easier to beat in a 7 game series.
    A 5 game series against Verlander is a little scary.
    The Red Sox have had the post season "luck" lately, and it's been because of this type of
    good fortune.
    They have owned the Angels, and if Detroit can knock of NY, I'll probably be saying "bring on the NL".
  15. Vadim
    15. Posted by Vadim Sat Sep 19, 2009 12:19 pm EDT

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    Wow yanks did the same thing again. First carl pavano now aj. aj is gonna be a 500 pitcher thts gonna get hurt soon. btw carl pavano has 12 wins and get paid only 4 mill. wht a bust.....
  16. jeezush
    16. Posted by jeezush Sat Sep 19, 2009 12:28 pm EDT

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    there is a reason everyone laughed when the Yankees signed him...he has never been anything but a .500 pitcher and he will never be anything more than a .500 pitcher...could have signed a hundred other guys who would be .500 on that team at a fraction of the cost
  17. Steve
    17. Posted by Steve Sat Sep 19, 2009 1:04 pm EDT

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    Some people are full-on idjits. "Write a positive article for once....." in a column with the title SlumpBot .200. Hee hee hee hee hee.
  18. Steve
    18. Posted by Steve Sat Sep 19, 2009 1:07 pm EDT

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    And another thing... those prosecuting attorneys NEVER say anything positive about anyone! And when is the last time the coroner ever talked about somebody that was alive!!
  19. Nathan A
    19. Posted by Nathan A Sat Sep 19, 2009 2:10 pm EDT

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    next years stats for burnet 8 w- 12 l 4.54 era* 156 k's 99 b's. he's a bust. 2008 18-10 4.07 era 86 b's 231 k's 221.1 ip just again another so far 2009* 11-9 * 4.33* era 90 b's* 173 k's* 190.0 ip* of money 2010 8-12 4.54* era 99 b's 156 k's 178.2 ip ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 37 -31 ? 275 b's 560 k's 589.3 ip 291 er's in 3 years Anyone agree. 291
  20. BrianT
    20. Posted by BrianT Sat Sep 19, 2009 7:00 pm EDT

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    tigers sre straight GARBAGE CHUMPS PERIOD.
  21. BrianT
    21. Posted by BrianT Sat Sep 19, 2009 7:00 pm EDT

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    tigers sre straight GARBAGE CHUMPS PERIOD.
  22. zack
    22. Posted by zack Sat Sep 19, 2009 7:56 pm EDT

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    AJ turned it around last night so heres a pie for you.
  23. Nelson F
    23. Posted by Nelson F Sun Sep 20, 2009 3:30 am EDT

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    Lol imreadytoplay, True the redsox are playing well now, a bit too late though, and the tigers? Verlander? Sabathia out dueled him the last time these two teams played, the Yankees took 5 out of 6 games from Detroit this season. Lets say the twins surprise the tigers and take the central, the Yankees swept the 7 game season series from them. Roster-wise this is a different team than the others, the run production doesnt fall on a-rod, which btw like your red sox has been playing well (.393 AVG .444 OBP in September) . Oh no look at that mariano blew a save, his 2nd of the season according to yahoo sports, but wait whats that? Mr. Papelbon, 3 blown saves? 37 saves? 3 less than mariano. .03 ERA points higher than mariano, 13 more walks allowed than mariano, 10 more hits allowed than mariano, BAA .223? .197 for mariano. Hey at least he gave up 2 less HRs than mariano, so theres a bright side.
  24. Nelson F
    24. Posted by Nelson F Sun Sep 20, 2009 3:30 am EDT

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    heh imreadytoplay, True the redsox are playing well now, a bit too late though, and the tigers? Verlander? Sabathia out dueled him the last time these two teams played, the Yankees took 5 out of 6 games from Detroit this season. Lets say the twins surprise the tigers and take the central, the Yankees swept the 7 game season series from them. Roster-wise this is a different team than the others, the run production doesnt fall on a-rod, which btw like your red sox has been playing well (.393 AVG .444 OBP in September) . Oh no look at that mariano blew a save, his 2nd of the season according to yahoo sports, but wait whats that? Mr. Papelbon, 3 blown saves? 37 saves? 3 less than mariano. .03 ERA points higher than mariano, 13 more walks allowed than mariano, 10 more hits allowed than mariano, BAA .223? .197 for mariano. Hey at least he gave up 2 less HRs than mariano, so theres a bright side.
  25. faraway
    25. Posted by faraway Sun Sep 20, 2009 11:22 am EDT

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    imreadytoplay, I think you better check your stats, the Red Sux can't win on the road, Becket has been as bad or worse than AJ recentley. The yanks have an excellent away winning percentage. I don't think you want to even cross the line of judging Mariano. Good luck on your teams success.

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