Big League Stew - MLB

Thu Jun 28, 2007 2:12 pm EDT

Five and Fly: Gauging Buehrle's worth

The offer on the table for Mark Buehrle is about $50 million over four years, according to one estimate, unconfirmed by the Chicago White Sox or Buehrle's camp. If true, one baseball insider said, Buehrle would be unwise to accept at a time when he'd pull far more on the free-agent market.

"Mark's better than that," the insider said. "He could easily get $15 million a year this offseason."

A National League executive put Buehrle's worth somewhere between the $80 million the Chicago Cubs initially offered Carlos Zambrano (and withdrew because of the team's pending sale) and the $126 million the San Francisco Giants will pay Barry Zito over seven years.

Buehrle's heart is in St. Louis, though it seems unlikely the Cardinals would go higher for Buehrle than they just did for Chris Carpenter, who got a five-year, $63.5-million extension (and a $15 million option on a sixth year) after a Cy Young Award in 2005 and a 36-13 record over two seasons. Buehrle's not as good as a healthy Carpenter.

In early conversations with the New York Mets and Boston Red Sox, White Sox general manager Kenny Williams aimed high, sources said, asking for Mike Pelfrey from the Mets and Jon Lester from the Red Sox. The abrupt answers he got from both might have sent him back to negotiations with Buehrle.

Neither the Mets nor the Red Sox is desperate enough (yet) to trade a future top-end starter for a three-month rental, only to get tossed in with the rest of the free-agent suitors next winter.

If Buehrle were to re-up with the White Sox, the trade market for pitchers over the next five weeks would get thinner. Meantime, scouts are keeping an eye on Matt Morris in San Francisco, Jose Contreras and Javier Vazquez in Chicago, Rich Harden in Oakland, Jason Jennings in Houston, Zambrano in the other Chicago and even Andy Pettitte in New York, shocking as that might be.

While Contreras would seem a reasonable alternative to Buehrle – and Williams does, indeed, seem motivated – scouts are concerned about Contreras' velocity (he's lost five or six m.p.h.), his contract (two more years for $20 million and a no-trade clause) and his ERA (up for a second consecutive year).

FIVE …

Roger Clemens didn't create this. The New York Yankees did. Baseball did. The Golden Era did. And now they all have something in common: Clemens' Crummy ERA.

He didn't strike out a batter and his fastball strained to reach 90 m.p.h. last night in Baltimore, where he went five scoreless and then, as his pitch count reached the 80s, gave it up in the sixth.

Hey, he's almost 45. Sure, he should be better, but not because of the salary he's drawing. He should be better because the Yankees needed him to be, just as they needed the bullpen to be better, and the offense to kick in more than a few runs a game, and Johnny Damon to stay young.

• Pelfrey, back from his demotion to Triple-A New Orleans, will start for the Mets in Friday's doubleheader against the Philadelphia Phillies. If he pitches well, he could get a permanent place on the Mets' staff, either in the rotation or in the bullpen. Pelfrey, under orders to throw more four-seam fastballs, had a 3.44 ERA with 29 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings in New Orleans.

• Here's an unfortunate coincidence, or maybe not: A segment of particularly unhappy Pittsburgh Pirates fans intend to walk out of PNC Park during Saturday's game against the Washington Nationals, a day that also features a bobblehead give-away. After the third inning, when they get up to take a walk, they can also take a small, plastic Bob Walk.

• The race is on in the Drew family.
J.D. in Boston: 67 games, .251 batting average, .736 OPS, 6 HR, 32 RBI
Stephen in Arizona: 71 games, .235 batting average, .652 OPS, 4 home runs, 27 RBI

Shea Hillenbrand, a day after the play-me-or-trade-me act, upon getting the news the Los Angeles Angels had chosen the latter: "It's a great organization. I wished I could have finished my career here."

Well, let's see: .254 batting average, .275 on-base percentage, .325 slugging percentage. While perhaps dangerously close to getting his wish, Hillenbrand will have some teams sniffing around. The Yankees just got beat by another left-handed pitcher, so there might be something there, and the Minnesota Twins haven't done much against lefties, either.

The Angels ultimately could swap out Hillenbrand for Mike Sweeney, for whom they once offered Casey Kotchman and another high-end prospect, and now probably could get for a mid-level prospect.

… AND FLY

And the Kansas City Royals are 1½ games behind the White Sox.

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  1. Nathan Onnat-Hanchreim
    1. Posted by Nathan Onnat-Hanchreim Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:13 pm EDT

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    Buehrle is a middling-type starter at best. It's amazing how much teams overpay for starting pitching. It sounds easier than it is, but teams should put the resources that would go into signing a expensive Barry Zito type (100+mil) into developing and scouting pitching. Look at the A's and the Twins. The A's have brought guys thru their system, gotten 4-5 good major league years out of them and then traded them (Hudson, Mulder etc.) for prospects. Some work out, some don't. But 2-3 years of a lightsout and cheap Dan Haren is like hitting the lottery.
  2. Tyler D
    2. Posted by Tyler D Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:25 pm EDT

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    Buehrle is not worth $50 Mil. Look at his numbers from the last 2 years.
  3. noelpaeng
    3. Posted by noelpaeng Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:40 pm EDT

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    On Clemens and the Yankees... I think they should be realistic. If they think the season is a bust as early as after the All-Star break, they should at least make it a season to remember for the Rocket and his fans. Make it a farewell tour for him and be grateful for all the wonderful times he brought the City of New York and to the game of baseball. That would also alleviate the pain impatience is bringing to these Yankees fans. Divert their attention, make it a season to remember still and prepare for the bright future ahead.
  4. Graham R
    4. Posted by Graham R Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:22 pm EDT

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    Que
  5. Graham R
    5. Posted by Graham R Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:22 pm EDT

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    Has Clemens does a "farewell tour" before, or am I thinking of someone else?
  6. goddz_sun
    6. Posted by goddz_sun Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:10 pm EDT

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    they traded for Haren, but close enough
  7. justing4564
    7. Posted by justing4564 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:45 pm EDT

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    Tim,
    I would expect a little more out of you here. If you had been listening to any of the rumors or doing any due dilligence in your research, you'd know that the 5 year 50 million dollar rumor was not true and that Mark is looking for more in the 14 mil / year range which is a nice home town discount. Not every major league player is as greedy as Roger Clemons and actually cares about the organization and their ability to re-tool.
    Also, "Buehrle's heart is in St. Louis??" Did you even read or listen to his comments specifically addressing that he has NO DESIRE to play for the Cardinals right now?? How many times can the guy say this before journalists get off his back about it.
  8. Dutchtreat
    8. Posted by Dutchtreat Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:11 pm EDT

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    Clemens just doesn't know when it's time to make a graceful exit. He should have followed Nolan Ryan's example and left with his dignity intact. Randy Johnson should do the same. It's not like Clemens and Johnson are hurting financially.
  9. Kevin8
    9. Posted by Kevin8 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:38 pm EDT

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    there is no way that andy pettitte is going to be traded. does tim brown really think that the boss is going to give up on the season and trade away pettitte. and to stupid tydotten if meche can get 55 mil then buerle can easily get a lot more than that.
  10. Thomas K
    10. Posted by Thomas K Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:15 pm EDT

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    A lefty with a 3.24 ERA in the American League, imagine what he could do the National League. It would be sick. He deserves to get paid.....
  11. Adam
    11. Posted by Adam Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:45 pm EDT

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    Well, to be fair, Nolan Ryan blew out his arm in what was his final start, so he was forced to end his career...he never had the chance to try and attempt a comeback, although I certainly understand what you are saying, bodhitree44.
  12. Doug G
    12. Posted by Doug G Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:47 pm EDT

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    There is not a player worth $50M. Never has been, never will be. That is way too much money to pay a ballplayer. This is getting ridiculous.
  13. Pause
    13. Posted by Pause Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:43 pm EDT

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    Enough with the fanciful moralism. At what point does one know he is finished, if the numbers refuting his belief that he is still an elite/ above average performer are not present? An accomplished big leaguer, with sustained long term eminence, such as Clemens, could easily attribute a bad stretch to bad luck and he could well be right. For the money these guys are paid, and the number of fans they have, accept a middling or deplorable stretch at the end of a career as a courtesy to a player who has entertained you for 20 years. Could you live with yourself leaving anything on the table? I know I wouldn't (don't) want to spend my old age wondering what else I might have accomplished.
  14. gofishing182
    14. Posted by gofishing182 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:10 pm EDT

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    well lester better stay with the sox and if the sox trade for him they better sign him in the trade, that way they can either keep him next year or trade him next year. but i dont think he is worth the money. it seems to me that really the only two pitchers this year who signed "BIG" deals were dice-K and zito. they had the biggest contracts and while zito isnt doing great he is doing decent. and dice-K i think was worth everypeny. plus the sox got another good japanese pitcher with dk. also you have to look at his past, i mean injury writen all over it and his stats aint even that good. so i doubt the sox or any other team will trade a man like lester for that small amount of talent. plus i mean the sox have been great without mark. even though schilling wont be back for some time i mean the sox havent REALLY needed him yet this year. so sox are goin to do the best this year and the dont need mark
  15. Peeves
    15. Posted by Peeves Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:27 pm EDT

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    i think buehrle is worth more to the mets off the braves staff than on their own
  16. gofishing182
    16. Posted by gofishing182 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:10 pm EDT

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    douggraupmann i agree no player is worth 50 mill. but players get paid waay more very often
  17. CFish
    17. Posted by CFish Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:21 pm EDT

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    people should be happy with $50 million
    the only reason theywould ever need $50 million is becuase they bought 4 houses have a bunch of personal chefs and trainers and such
    get rid of a few houses and they could easily live for a small percentage of that
  18. CFish
    18. Posted by CFish Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:21 pm EDT

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    people should be happy with $50 million
    the only reason theywould ever need $50 million is becuase they bought 4 houses have a bunch of personal chefs and trainers and such
    get rid of a few houses and they could easily live for a small percentage of that
  19. 2345234
    19. Posted by 2345234 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:51 pm EDT

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    Buehrle is a leftie who does not get hurt, eats up innings, does not walk people, pitched amazing throughout the playoffs and world series and is damn good. No one is worth the money they are receiving these days, but Buehrle would be a huge addition to any team. Everyone is overpaid, but at least Buehrle is good unlike people like Jason Marquis or Ted Lilly. Even though the Cubs were idiotic this off season, I blame Toronto for the recent insanity in the market with their Burnett and Ryan signings. But thanks to the Cubs for continuing this madness and ruining this last off season. How are those teams doing by the way? Oh ya, they are garbage (don't mind this winning streak by the Cubs against the awful White Sox (my team) and the struggling Rockies. In any other division they would be in at least 4th place). Money does not win championships.
  20. SmyrnaChristian
    20. Posted by SmyrnaChristian Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:54 pm EDT

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    "A segment of particularly unhappy Pittsburgh Pirates fans intend to walk out of PNC Park during Saturday's game against the Washington Nationals, "
    You'd think people from Pittsburgh would find something more important protest, especially given how mobbed up the row offices and courts in western PA are.
  21. SmyrnaChristian
    21. Posted by SmyrnaChristian Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:54 pm EDT

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    "1st
    Posted by rickyramos2 on Thursday, Jun 28, 2007 2:14 pm EDT"
    1st what?
    1st moron?????
  22. Dino
    22. Posted by Dino Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:43 pm EDT

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    The author is wrong. Buerhle has made it clear over this past week that in his heart he wants to stay in Chicago. Just yesterday he was quoted saying this: "Everyone knows where my heart is. If anyone has questions about me running to St. Louis when I'm a free agent, they're wrong." - in today's Chicago Sun-Times. Expect him to sign an extension worth about $62mil. over 4yrs by end of week.
  23. noelpaeng
    23. Posted by noelpaeng Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:40 pm EDT

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    Yes, maybe Clemens doesn't know when to call it quits but Michael Jordan didn't also. Maybe there's still that "itch" as Jordan put it when he returned to play two more seasons after that fairytale "Last Shot" against Utah. Unlike Jordan though, Clemens' return pays him a ton of money for someone who gets to play every five days. Jordan, if my memory serves me right, got a million a season and even donated his first season's salary to the victims of 9/11. So, is Clemens in it because of that competitive itch or is he in it for the money? Maybe Clemens can also get an advice from Jordan on "how to have a graceful exit after an unsuccessful return stint from retirement." As sportsfans know, as soon as Jordan's Wizards lost the season it became a farewell tour to remember for Jordan fans which he never had while winning with Pippen and the Bulls.
  24. m_spychalski
    24. Posted by m_spychalski Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:32 pm EDT

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    If no player was worth $50 mil, then no player would be making $50 mil. Sure, it sounds like a lot of money to play baseball, but baseball is a big business that generates lots of money. Just because you can live on less than $50 mil, doesn't mean that you should not get paid $50 mil (or more) if that is what your fair market value is. If you make $60k per year, but could survive off of $30k, does that mean you should only make $30k per year?

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