February 14, 2013
Nerlens Noel's injury changes everything about Kentucky's season. They'll be different on offense, on defense, and in practice. Their ceiling as an NCAA tournament team (assuming they make the field) is also dramatically different.
Kentucky started out +800 to win the national championship when preseason lines opened in July according to sportsoddshistory.com, but those days are long gone. That money line (you bet $100, you win $800) put UK as the No. 2 favorite initially, tied with Louisville and behind only Indiana.
The line is even different than it was a couple weeks ago. According to sportsoddshistory.com, UK was at 40-1 when February began after being 9-1 a month into the season. Back then, UK was the fourth favorite to win it all, behind Duke, IU, and UofL.
According to our friends at beyondthebets.com**, UK is unlikely to fall much further than 50-1. Big-time schools like UK will always generate a little action, especially when there are still future NBA players on the roster. UK's odds have likely bottomed out.
**If you're not following @beyondthebets on Twitter, you should be. Fascinating stuff and helpful people. They were great in pointing out where to look for information in this post.