NHL Skinny: Self-imposed deadline

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GOALIE HOT SEAT

COLORADO AVALANCHE RED HOT
1st Chair: Peter Budaj
2nd Chair: Andrew Raycroft
Skinny: The Avs are a one-line team on their best nights and goaltending wise you can count on three goals against and 10 percent of opposing shots finding the back of the net, and that’s when things go well. Chasing wins here can kill your ratios. Budaj, for what it’s worth, has started two straight.


NASHVILLE PREDATORS RED HOT
1st Chair: Pekka Rinne
2nd Chair: Dan Ellis
Skinny: Rinne has started four straight (2-2), while Ellis has been pulled early in three of his last five. The ownership figures here (Ellis 65 percent, Rinne 39) can be politely described as “curious.” Nashville’s low goal output will cost you a win here and there, but Rinne’s 2.33 GAA and .917 save percentage keep you in play in those categories.


LOS ANGELES KINGS RED HOT
1st Chair: Jon Quick
2nd Chair: Erik Ersberg
Skinny: We haven’t seen much of Ersberg lately, but that should change with the Kings playing nine of their 13 February games on the road. Quick has carried the load in part because of strong play (wins in three of four), but also because Ersberg has been dealing with injuries. Los Angeles has long-term decisions to make here, so prudence dictates getting a look at both down the stretch.


OTTAWA SENATORS RED HOT
1st Chair: Brian Elliott
2nd Chair: Alex Auld
Skinny: Elliott went 18-8-1 with a .926 save percentage for new Sens coach Cory Clouston while both were with Binghamton this season, so you have to figure the rookie has the new coach’s confidence already. That said, everyone in Ottawa is on the hot seat, and Elliott wasn’t exactly at his best Sunday against Washington (four allowed on 16 shots).


ANAHEIM DUCKS RED HOT
1st Chair: Jonas Hiller
2nd Chair: Jean-Sebastien Giguere
Skinny: The Ducks always split starts on back-to-back nights, which is why it was telling when Anaheim went with Hiller on Jan. 27-28. Giguere wasn’t happy and presumably that mood didn’t improve when Hiller started Saturday, and again on Monday.


ST. LOUIS BLUES HOT
1st Chair: Chris Mason
2nd Chair: Manny Legace
Skinny: The nine-percent owned Mason is actually the No. 7 fantasy goalie over the past month with three wins, two shutouts and a .944 save percentage. Legace gave up some frightening goals Monday, so it looks like Mason gets yet another shot to prove he can handle No. 1 duties.


CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS HOT
1st Chair: Nikolai Khabibulin
2nd Chair: Cristobal Huet
Skinny: This has been a straight every-other-game timeshare for some time now. Hey, it makes the guessing game easier, but it can be maddening when a particularly stellar performance isn’t rewarded.


PHILADELPHIA FLYERS HOT
1st Chair: Martin Biron
2nd Chair: Antero Niittymaki
Skinny: Niittymaki has started four of five, but the folks at the Philadelphia Inquirer are expecting Biron to start Wednesday. The Flyers will be coming off a three-day rest and it’s a huge home tilt against Boston, so whoever gets the start should be considered the No. 1, contingent on a solid outing, of course.


DETROIT RED WINGS LUKEWARM
1st Chair: Ty Conklin
2nd Chair: Chris Osgood
Skinny: It’s really timeshare here. Osgood continues to kill fantasy ratios while Conklin remains an underrated fantasy asset, even if he can’t earn back-to-back starts.


We’re a little more than a month away from the trading deadline in Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Hockey leagues that accept the default settings. A little more than a month after that, the season ends altogether. The deadline is there to prevent late-season collusion (see F&F update below). It’s there to make sure the guys who win you a championship are the guys who got you there. It’s not there as a guide to remind you it’s time to make a deal. Frankly, March 5 is too late.

As I sit here today, I’m 11 goals away from catching the team atop that category in the Friends and Family league. That leap would be worth two rotisserie points – not earth-moving but not insignificant when every point counts. If things don’t change and I decided to address that category at the trade deadline, I’d basically have to give up the least valuable goal scorer on my roster to acquire a player the caliber of Alexander Ovechkin to make the jump. Only three players scored double-digit goals over the last month: Ovechkin, Bobby Ryan and Michael Cammalleri. Sure we had the All-Star break in there, but the point is that you can’t just count on a deadline deal to get you over the hump. In a head-to-head league, sure – everything is reset in the playoffs. But not in a roto league.

The sense of urgency should be even greater if your areas of need fall in the goalie categories. Seven or eight wins is a great month for an elite goalie. How many do you need? Thanks for reading. That was really a note to self. If March rolls around and I’m still complaining about Jean-Sebastien Giguere and whatever flavor of the month I’ve signed while ranking third in goals and first in assists, I’m going to resign (insert your favorite “We thought you already resigned … where are the Big Board updates?” joke here).

Let’s move on.

Weekend UpdateNeed-to-know info from the past few days

The Penguins finally have a timetable for Sergei Gonchar’s return. It’s three weeks, which means those owners who have him stashed on the IR should have his services by the end of February. He’s still a free agent in about 59 percent of Yahoo! leagues, too, so this latest news – somehow, it didn’t get a lot of play in Steel Town on Sunday – should cause an uptick in his ownership figure.

Returns from long-term absences have been a mixed bag so far this season. Signing and activating Mats Sundin (3 points, minus-6 in 9 games) and Steve Sullivan (2 points, minus-7 in 8 games) has been a disaster. But as we saw with Ryan Whitney, sometimes it just takes a little patience with these guys. Whitney had one point and was a minus-6 in his first seven games after returning from a foot injury. Since then he has nine points in 11 games with four points on the power play and a palatable minus-2 rating. The great thing about defensemen is that they can be eased into the heavy lifting minutes-wise while still assuming a prominent role in the power play. Go check on Gonchar. Does Whitney’s case make Sundin and Sullivan solid buy-low candidates? Hmmmm …

As Scott Pianowski mentioned last week, nobody needs a center. I get irritated every now and then about ownership figures in Yahoo! leagues. Bobby Ryan: 64 percent. Really? But I can overlook the occasional network-wide snub at center. You drafted deep at center and you’re probably happy with your production there. That said, and as Scott touched on Thursday, it’s hard not to classify Rich Peverley as at least a person of interest.

Since joining the Thrashers and lining up with Ilya Kovalchuk, Peverley has three goals and eight assists in eight games. There’s upside here. Of course, some are calling Atlanta’s current four-game losing streak (two shutout losses) the low point of the season, so no role is safe. Pianowski already snapped him up in the Friends and Family league (I’m solid up the middle with Marleau-Malkin-Krejci), but this is exactly the type of guy I’d target if I created a center vacancy by trading a Malkin-type for goalie help. Did I mention I’m a little weak in goal?

One-timers: If you’re the guy who owns Peter Forsberg in the one percent of leagues that currently employ him, you can move along now. … Toronto left wing Jason Blake (58-percent owned) has 13 points in seven games. … With Patrice Bergeron and Phil Kessel back in the lineup, it’s worth monitoring the ice time distribution in Boston. … Had some fun at his expense below, but Yann Danis has a three-game winning streak (6 goals allowed). … Tim Connolly has seven goals in six games for the Sabres.

BARGAIN BIN: Top players available in 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues
David Backes, RW, Stl (40-percent owned) – Look at your league standings and chances are the category you can most readily move up in is penalty minutes. You can’t just say “OK, I’m going to make a move in wins this week – watch as I sign Yann Danis and rocket up this category.” It doesn’t work that way. PIMs are a bit more predictable, not to mention available. If you want to make a move, you can. This normally comes at a price in other categories, but Backes is a guy who can help you make a PIM push without completely sacrificing production elsewhere. Dating back to mid-December, the Minnesota native has 15 points (11 goals) in 20 games while picking up at least one minor penalty in 14. Heck, over the last month only seven right wings have more shots than Backes. Let’s go out there and get him.

MARKET MOVERS: Charting player values
Ville Leino, LW, Det – Coach Mike Babcock called him the most talented player he’s ever sent to the minors, and yeah, that first NHL goal wasn’t too shabby. The ice time and plush line assignment are products of injuries, so I’m not expecting a long run of success here. Worst-case we’re doing some 2009-10 draft research. Best-case injuries and other circumstances conspire to keep him on one of Detroit’s top two lines.

Jose Theodore, G, Was – Put a guy in a messy goalie situation and eventually some owners will just tune the name out regardless of recent production. Could be the case with Theodore, who is a free agent in about 20 percent of Yahoo! leagues despite these January numbers: 6-3-1, 2.18, .919.

Jamie Langenbrunner, RW, NJ – He was Yahoo! Sports’ No. 1 star on back-to-back nights Jan. 29-30. That’s Alex Ovechkin territory. Last week he was the No. 1 fantasy forward in default leagues (6 goals, 1 assist) and over the last month he’s the No. 3 right wing (8 goals, 7 assists, plus-8). Not bad for a 51-percent owned 14-year vet.

Andy McDonald, C, Stl – He’s widely available (24-percent owned), is close to coming back from a broken ankle and can certainly help someone’s fantasy team in the power-play department. In parts of two seasons with the Blues, the centerman has 25 power-play points in 65 games.

Tom Gilbert, D, Edm – He had seven points in seven games before Sunday’s defensive meltdowns against Nashville. The recent production is intriguing. So is the fact that Edmonton has been toying with the idea of playing Gilbert at forward on the power play.

Steve Ott, C, Dal – Janet Eagleson gave Ott a mention in last week’s Frozen Fantasy and the Dallas forward went out and performed as advertised Saturday, extending his goal streak to three games and picking up two minor penalties (one for roughing).

Dustin Brown, RW, LA – He’s cooled it on the rough stuff since 2005-06, but gentlemanly play is OK when you’re riding a five-game goal streak (6 goals, 4 assists).

Kyle Okposo, RW, NYI – We like the four-game goal streak. We’re even happier than three of his five goals during that span have come on the power-play.

Robert Lang, C, Mon – Nothing official yet, but it looks like a tendon injury suffered Sunday may have ended Lang’s season.

Yahoo! Friends and Family League update
You can check out Matt Buser’s excellent fantasy basketball coverage over at busersports.com. Just don’t waste your time looking for the “hockey” tab. It’s not there. He’s a basketball expert. We’re not sure what he’s doing atop the F&F hockey standings, but you can bet we’ll resort to collusion if things don’t normalize shortly. We generally look at weekly stats here, but since it has been a while, we’ll call out big months for Backes, Duncan Keith and Dwayne Roloson (7 wins) for Team Buser. Recent league-wide player adds included Christian Ehrhoff, Jason Blake, Langenbrunner and Niittymaki.

Matt Romig is a Yahoo! Sports fantasy expert and NHL analyst. Send Matt a question or comment for potential use in a future column or webcast.
Updated Feb 3, 2:34 am EST
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