By Janet Eagleson
October 19, 2007
Thirty-something veterans no longer lead the fantasy hockey charge. Instead, those in their late-20s (or much, much younger) are now considered the elite when it comes to fantasy hockey.
Not long ago, NHL players peaked in their late 20s and carried that well into their 30s. In fact, the Age 27 rule you hear in baseball circles was pretty much paralleled on the ice.
Not any more.
Last year, 11 of the top-15 goal scorers and point getters were under 30; the top scorer overall was barely out of diapers. Compare that to 2003-2004 (the last year before the lockout) when just seven of the top-15 scorers were under 30 and 28-year-old Martin St. Louis won the scoring chase.
This year, the trend continues. The leader board is littered with young bucks, and the old and steady fellows are, for the most part, just looking old.
I used to shy away from youngsters – their yo-yo performances were too tough to swallow in single-year leagues. But I can't any more. Eight of the 10 guys who caught my eye this week are under 30; six of those eight are 23 or younger. Wow!
And you'll even find me panning a guy who's only 27, something I wouldn't have thought possible a few short years ago.
Let's take a look.
Brent Burns, D, Minnesota (9.65 percent owned) – After being jerked from forward to defense and back to forward again, Burns has finally settled on the blue line and is quickly becoming one of the elite young defensemen in the league. First, he's smart. And while you don't need brains to be alive, you do need them to be a good hockey player (and yes, there are exceptions to that rule but let's just roll with this for a second). Second, he's physical. And third, he has an absolute cannon for a shot. Just feed him the puck and POW! I'd say he's already the Wild's No. 1 defender and he's well on his way – heaven forbid I say this – to being in the same class as premier young studs Shea Weber and, yes, even Dion Phaneuf. Don't believe me? Watch him. Just do it. You'll see what I mean.
Daniel Carcillo, LW, Phoenix (0.72 percent owned) – Carcillo is the epitome of a shift disturber. This little irritant hits the ice at full steam and both pounds and agitates, a la Sean Avery. He impressed in a late-season stint last year and is looking like a nice combo of scoring and penalty minutes already. Sure, it's his first full season and that means a few ups and downs. But he has three points and 22 PIMs in five games, and has even seen some power-play time. He's a potential 50-point, 200-PIM player – guys like that help you win fantasy categories. Use and abuse him now to pad some of your early totals.
Tim Connolly, C, Buffalo (16.58 percent owned) – Do not pass go. Do not collect $200. Just hustle your butt and get this guy off waivers, OK? He's healthy (knock on wood) and he's hot. And there is no way he should be available in more than four of every five leagues. I know center is the deepest position going but he has seven points, four of which have come on the power play, in five games heading into Friday. Doesn't sound spectacular? That's a 115-point pace. He won't get it, but he has the kind of talent that could deliver more than 90 points if he stays out of the infirmary.
Viktor Kozlov, C, Washington (8.79 percent owned) – Kozlov has a elite skills and size, but is one of the most unimaginative, lazy players you might ever find. But sometimes even petrified wood can find a perfect home and I'd say skating with Alexander Ovechkin could make even the biggest rock float. Cripes, I could get points if I played with Ovechkin. You'll want to be one step ahead once the chemical reaction between these boys starts to bubble. Monitor him closely and get ready to jump.
Joffrey Lupul, RW, Philadelphia (2.74 percent owned) – You couldn't fall much further professionally than Lupul did last year. The weight of being the centerpiece of the Chris Pronger trade hung around his neck like a cement block. And he never did master enough Houdini skills to save him from drowning in his hometown market. He was jettisoned to the City of Brotherly Love for Joni Pitkanen this summer and voila – he's exhibiting the skills that gave him a 28-goal, 53-point rookie campaign just two seasons ago. He's on a five-game, seven-point streak and 97 percent of Yahooligans haven't noticed. Will you?
Cory Murphy, D, Florida (10.41 percent) – Murphy went undrafted out of college, largely because of his diminutive stature (5-foot-10 and maybe 185 lbs). So off he went to Finland where, low-and-behold, he copped MVP honors in the Elite League. This past spring, he played for Canada at the World Championships and delivered seven points and a plus-7 rating in nine games against NHLers. He's a great skater who can move the puck, and is surprisingly tougher than his size would suggest. He has six points in seven games from the blue line and guess what? Five of those points have come on the power play. I can tell you right now I'd rather have Murphy on my Yahoo! team than the so-called studs – Bryan McCabe, Tomas Kaberle, Shea Weber and Dan Boyle – I have right now.
Brent Seabrook, D, Chicago (29.62 percent owned) – Seabrook is another young defenseman on the rise. And, yes, he has the same kind of potential and pedigree as Mr. Burns above … Big shot, big muscle, big brain – it's the ultimate package when it comes to a defenseman. I really like Seabrook's footwork – if it's this good at 22, what will it be when he "matures." He has four points in his first five games and is plus-2 with six penalty minutes for good measure. Snap him up. I did.
Drew Stafford, RW, Buffalo (6.85 percent) – Yes, the Sabres lost a lot of their offense and their identity when Chris Drury and Daniel Briere bolted. But a guy like Stafford makes it a lot easier to let those big guns go. He throws his body around and that helps create space for his explosive repertoire of shots. He has three points in five games and he's seeing some time on the power play. Monitor him – if he takes off when the Sabres start to gel, you need to get in on the early stock offering. Otherwise, you'll be S.O.L.
Tim Thomas, G, Boston (39.94 percent owned) – The Bruins simply cannot bring themselves to admit they're better off with this flopping, flailing scrapper between the posts than the overpriced Manny Fernandez (91.42 percent owned). Thomas leaves it all on the ice every time he assumes the stance. And his team seems to draw inspiration from his tenacious performances. Prior to Thursday's 35-save win, he was 2-1 with a 1.34 goals-against average and a .957 save percentage while Fernandez was 1-1 with a 5.01 GAA and .796 save percentage. He'll help in the short term; who knows how long it might last? He did win 30 games last season …
Travis Zajac, C, New Jersey (0.86 percent owned) – Zajac potted two power-play markers Wednesday night and now has six points in seven games – solid production for sure. But the thing I like best? Both goals came on the power play; in fact, two-thirds of his production has come with the man advantage. Power-play output is gold in the Yahoo! format but you'll need to augment your penalty minutes some where else. Zajac is a Lady Byng candidate just like Brad Richards in Tampa Bay.
Fool's Gold
Niklas Hagman, LW, Dallas (41.92 percent owned) – A regular reader (yes, you know who you are) fired me an e-mail this week asking about Hagman. The gist of the e-mail was like this – "I don't want to miss out on the next great thing … is Hagman that guy? Should I pick him up?" My answer? No. Hagman is a soon-to-be 28-year-old grinder who managed to pot 17 goals last season. Sure, he has five goals and seven points in as many games this season. But anyone who owns this 'Kris Draper-lite' needs to have someone else stashed in their back pocket when Hagman reverts back to the mean. He's owned in almost half of Yahoo! leagues; he won't be for long. Bail now – better yet, trade his butt before his flaming tail turns to ice.
Back to the babes. Foot speed has become the rule and not the exception in today's NHL. And it's beginning to look like the young really will rule the land.
I'm not saying you should dump every 30-something off your squad and stock up on a roster full of pimple-faced kids. But the NHL has changed and so has fantasy.
Ditch the Depends and stock up on Pampers. This trend is here to stay.
Until next week. Janet Eagleson's lifelong love of hockey has grown into a four-year gig as a writer for RotoWire.com, and you can hear her as the resident NHL expert on GoTV Networks. Eagleson is a direct, no-nonsense fantasy analyst whose style once prompted a regular RotoWire.com reader to proclaim that only she and [Canada's favorite hockey blow-hard] Don Cherry had enough "onions" to say things the way they really are. Updated on Friday, Oct 19, 2007 2:08 pm, EDT Email to a Friend | View Popular
|
