Scouting Notebook: Hard knock life

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You can find more from Michael Salfino at SNY.tv

We set the table for the fantasy week here in the Scouting Notebook and we’ll focus on player analysis in a bit. The big news on Sunday, though, was concussions to the reigning Super Bowl signal callers.

Considering both Ben Roethlisberger(notes) and Kurt Warner(notes) have a history of documented concussions, with Roethlisberger’s reportedly being most serious, their return in Week 12 is an open question

Warner, who had two documented concussions prior to today, ironically spoke out against returning too soon after concussions in an article that was published by the Associated Press this week. “And I think that’s probably – and I’m just guessing – where the biggest effects are down the road, is guys that may not have a record that they had 10 concussions but probably had that or more so and just played right through it.”

Note that the Cardinals at no point on Sunday ruled Warner out even for the balance of the Rams game. Roethlisberger appeared to lose consciousness completely. Consider that in boxing, fighters must sit out at least 30 days after losing by TKO or KO. That brings how the NFL treats concussed players into sharp relief. You don’t want critics to be able to plausibly describe your sport as being “more barbaric than boxing.” You can’t treat brains like you treat knees and hamstrings.

On Sunday night, rookie Kahill Bell (72-yard run) took some snaps away from the terribly inefficient Matt Forte(notes) (about 3.3 yards per carry in ’09).

The glass is always half full with rookie QBs. Josh Freeman(notes) shows an ability to hang in versus a blitz and take a hit even when backed up to his own goal line. I agree with Phil Simms that Mark Sanchez(notes) can already make all the NFL throws. But both these rookies struggled mightily on Sunday, especially Sanchez at New England. Don’t judge them too harshly during this embryonic stage. Put away the knives until they’re into their third season.

Same for Matthew Stafford(notes), who really shined against the JV (the Browns). He and Calvin Johnson(notes) made it look very easy on the 75-yard bomb that put the Lions back into the game – combining home-run speed with a home-run arm just like we drew it up in August.

Last year’s ingenue, Matt Ryan(notes), looked bad again before rallying to lead the Falcons at least into overtime. For most of the game, he seemed skittish – taking off out of the pocket on mad dashes to nowhere instead of believing in his blockers and his receivers.

Mario Manningham(notes) really looked good managing the sideline with some toe taps and finding voids in the zone, especially on the 29-yard catch that set up the game-winning, OT kick. I can’t say anything bad about Steve Smith, either. But Domenik Hixon(notes) continuing to start in three-WR sets over Hakeem Nicks(notes) (5-for-65) is lunacy. Nicks got most of his looks subbing for Manningham in two-WR sets.

Eli Manning(notes) had his first 300-yard passing game ever at home.

Rock Cartwright(notes) is the starter now in Washington with Ladell Betts(notes) out with a torn-MCL (probably for the year) and Clinton Portis(notes) already ruled out for Week 12. Any starting back, especially one like Cartwright who will also handle third downs, is waiver worthy now.

“Off the hands of Roy Williams,” is a phrase we hear too often during Dallas games.

Michael Jenkins(notes), admittedly not helping Ryan progress through his recent struggles, dropped a TD pass on a floater that he didn’t even need to leap to catch. Braylon Edwards(notes) also had a bad drop. It’s the same names every week, seemingly.

Brandon Jacobs(notes) scored but could have had a big day and probably another TD had he been able to return instead of hitting the stationary bike. Jacobs is always checking himself out for problems like I used to check out my wife’s old Dodge Dart when we first met. You are a tank, Brandon. But something is going to hurt a little after every run.

Reggie Bush’s(notes) absence didn’t help Pierre Thomas(notes) on Sunday. Everything is not going to be alright, Thomas owners. There’s no solace to be taken by him continuing to have great rate numbers (11 carries for 92 yards in Tampa). We draft RBs for quantity as much as quality. Never trust Sean Payton to do right by his runners again.

Terrell Owens(notes) still has No. 1 WR ability but his environment stinks. You want to bet on Ryan Fitzpatrick(notes) and the coaching change to be a salve, feel free. But I cannot advise it.

I said this week in another forum that if Derrick Mason(notes) (100-plus receiving yards in the second half) had spent his entire career with the Colts, he’d be an inner-circle Hall of Famer. Joe Flacco(notes) is okay, but still a work in progress. Throwing a middle screen into triple coverage with the game-leading field goal in his pocket on third down was the worst QB decision of the day.

Laurence Maroney(notes) – one more fumble, two more goal-line TDs. He’s getting the big carries (six TDs the past five games) in one of the best fantasy places (New England).

Antonio Gates(notes) was tackled on the one-yard line on about a 20-yard pass for about the fourth time this year. The Chargers and Norv Turner treat him like a scrub on the goal line, where the team struggles (20th in red zone TD percentage before going a poor 3-for-6 in Denver).

Louis Murphy(notes) says he just found out that you come in on off days and study film, etc. That says more about the lack of any organizational leadership in Oakland than it does about Murphy. “Commitment to Excellence” is just a slogan now.

The Murphy TD was part of a finish that evoked the famous Heidi Game which happened 41 years ago this week (November 17, 1968). This happening last year on the 40th anniversary would have been way cooler. But the Raiders have lost their poetic sense, too.

Michael Salfino’s work has appeared in USA Today’s Sports Weekly, RotoWire, dozens of newspapers nationwide and most recently throughout Comcast SportsNet and NESN. Michael also covers the Jets and Giants each week for SNY.tv.

Updated Nov 22, 11:30 pm EST
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23 Comments

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    Looney Toons Fri Nov 27, 2009 11:20 pm PST Report Abuse
    Charles will be a stud vs sd and denver
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    Salfino Mon Nov 23, 2009 04:53 pm PST Report Abuse
    PT has gotten one goal-line carry (one yard or less) and didn't convert. But he was very good in doing this last year. There's no rhyme or reason. Those goal-line targets are great. Thanks for that. Brads, that's really tough. I think Rice is more freakish. But how much is Favre? Sims-Walker thus has the higher floor. Of course, Jackson threw Rice a TD yesterday, IIRC.
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    brads Mon Nov 23, 2009 04:34 pm PST Report Abuse
    Salfino, who do you suspect will be the better keeper for years to come S.Rice or Sims-Walker? I'd say Rice is better now but how much of that is dependent upon Favre (who knows what favre's condition will be next year let alone the rest of this season). And therefore would that make Sims-Walker the better keeper for next year?
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    John Mon Nov 23, 2009 04:27 pm PST Report Abuse
    the more frustrating aspect is there's no clear cut pattern. this isn't MBIII/Jones circa 2007, where one works between the 20s and in quarters 1-3 and MBIII does the rest. it's very random. the minute I thought Bell was the new MBIII and started him, PT had a really good game and Bell got hardly anything.
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    Paul B Mon Nov 23, 2009 03:42 pm PST Report Abuse
    I don't own Pierre Thomas in any of my leagues, but I did watch a lot of their earlier games. Wasn't Thomas inept at punching it in near the goal line earlier on this season? He either got stuffed a few times or fumbled. Perhaps my memory is off the mark, but if it isn't, maybe that has something to do with Payton's mistrust of Thomas around the stripe? Here's some numbers I found:

    Saints number of plays where the RB was either the rusher or target within the opponents five-yard line this season: 19
    Thomas' share: 7
    Mike Bell: 7
    Reggie Bush: 2
    Heath Evans: 2
    Lynell Hamilton: 1

    The question is - how many times did Thomas convert on those seven carries inside the five?
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    Dan B Mon Nov 23, 2009 02:13 pm PST Report Abuse
    The PT situation has to be one of the most perplexing this season. I drafted him in the 4 th round as my no 2 rb but luckily had ray rice to replace him. why is Payton so dead set on playing nearly every offensive player they have a roster spot for? its like he is so power crazed he wants to win in the most unconventional way. they dont stick with anyone at any offensive skill position save for drew brees. as if he feels if he does that he will get less credit for the wins. i dont know. im baffled.
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    Salfino Mon Nov 23, 2009 01:49 pm PST Report Abuse
    We need to file a fantasy class-action lawsuit against Payton on behalf of Pierre Thomas owners nationwide for lost income and pain & suffering. They're on pace for 28 rushing TDs. TWENTY-EIGHT!!!!! That means the feature back, if he's good and not a jitter-bug (which Thomas decidedly is not) should get 20, minimum. What's he going to get? Eight?
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    Puma Mon Nov 23, 2009 12:14 pm PST Report Abuse
    My first 5 picks: Forte, Pierre Thomas, Manning, Braylon, Dmac.
    This will be the first year I dont make the playoffs, and i want to murder Jay Cutler.
    Thanks Brad Evans for knowing absolutely nothing about football you bald boring idiot. Its my fault, why would I trust a guy that looks like he plays on the chess team to know anything about a mans sport.

    Have a great day.
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    comedian_for_hire Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:02 am PST Report Abuse
    Payton's a Fantasy hater!!
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    Palk Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:42 am PST Report Abuse
    I also made a trade for R. Wayne. I made my trade 2 weeks ago so he will help me secure a spot in the playoffs, but I'm covered for when the Colts bench their stars because I've got Calvin Johnson, Ocho Cinco and Mike Sims-Walker. I also grabbed Austin Collie, who I'm sure will see some playing time in Weeks 16 & 17.

    As for "Genious", I hope he is aware of that situation because if he plans to ride Wayne to Super Bowl, he is in for a surprise. And I have Ray Rice too, got him in the 7th round...so I don't know if your league is filled with idiots or there are only like 8 rounds, but R. Rice had no business being the last pick. he wasn't expected to do what he's doing this year, but he was certainly expected to do more than be the last pick of a draft (regardless of how many rounds there were.)
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    Palk Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:41 am PST Report Abuse
    I also made a trade for R. Wayne. I made my trade 2 weeks ago so he will help me secure a spot in the playoffs, but I'm covered for when the Colts bench their stars because I've got Calvin Johnson, Ocho Cinco and Mike Sims-Walker. I also grabbed Austin Collie, who I'm sure will see some playing time in Weeks 16 & 17.

    As for "Genious", I hope he is aware of that situation because if he plans to ride Wayne to Super Bowl, he is in for a surprise. And I have Ray Rice too, got him in the 7th round...so I don't know if your league is filled with idiots or there are only like 8 rounds, but R. Rice had no business being the last pick. he wasn't expected to do what he's doing this year, but he was certainly expected to do more than be the last pick of a draft (regardless of how many rounds there were.)
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    Kid Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:35 am PST Report Abuse
    Salfino - There were a dozen things to like about Forte going into 2009 - Another year of experience, QB upgrade to free up the line of scrimmage, addition of offensive linemen - but what was grossly overlooked was his 3.9 YPC in 2008.

    At the end of the day, YPC is the only metric that most of us casual fans can use to identify if a RB is any good or not. And historically, a sub 4.0 mark is pretty poor in comparison to the rest of the NFL.

    Giant red flag.

    I agree with you. Very bland feature back.
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    NJ Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:12 am PST Report Abuse
    How do you feel about F. Jackson if Lynch remains out? I'm sure he won't regain his beginning season magic but I'm hoping for some modest production since I had Turner and Brown.
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    Sickboy Mon Nov 23, 2009 09:46 am PST Report Abuse
    so "genious", when burleson's are still putting up points during the fantasy playoffs, and reggie wayne is warming the bench with the rest of the colts starters, will you still feel like a genius?

    ...and what league allows ray rice to fall to mr. irrelevant/kicker territory? are there only 6 teams?
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    Genious Mon Nov 23, 2009 09:25 am PST Report Abuse
    So glad I traded PT and Burleson for R.Wayne! Also very glad I took R.Rice with the last pick in my draft! My season is coming together at the right time!!!!
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    Salfino Mon Nov 23, 2009 08:44 am PST Report Abuse
    And he's also throwing lots of TD passes.
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    O - H - I - O Mon Nov 23, 2009 07:31 am PST Report Abuse
    "Favre is hot."

    Gross Salfino
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    Salfino Mon Nov 23, 2009 07:19 am PST Report Abuse
    I like Rice over Mason, too. Favre is hot.
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    Dan B Mon Nov 23, 2009 07:08 am PST Report Abuse
    just made a late season trade deal that will have me starting sidney rice instead of derrick mason. i like mason but i think rice has a special thing going with farve right now.
    that missed throw by cutler to olsen that would've been a td cost me my matchup this week.
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    Salfino Mon Nov 23, 2009 06:26 am PST Report Abuse
    I think Calvin Johnson is going to be top 10 going forward, but I would not make a large bet on that. Forte is a jack-of-all-trades type with modest talent for an NFL tailback.
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    jay g Mon Nov 23, 2009 03:30 am PST Report Abuse
    Is it the Chicago line or is Forte really just that mediocre? In my most important league i drafted Forte/PT with my 1st and 3rd picks.. i stole Ray Rice in the 8th or 9th round but man has it been a long season..
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    Kid Sun Nov 22, 2009 09:26 pm PST Report Abuse
    Does anybody remember during the pre-season when the Saints said "we might use Mike Bell" and the rest of us said "yeah, right"? It's really frustrating to see the way he's used...

    Is Calvin Johnson a top-10 WR going forward? Granted this was against the Browns, but still...
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    John Sun Nov 22, 2009 09:03 pm PST Report Abuse
    that gates non-TD killed my playoff hopes.

    no, wait, it was the PT letdown that killed my playoff hopes.

    no, wait, it was the robbie gould blocked kick that did it (my opponent has PHI D).

    it's one thing to be soundly beaten, but to know that if any one of 4-5 plays had gone a bit differently, you'd win? that just blows.

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