Scouting Notebook: Moats operandi

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You can find more from Michael Salfino at Comcast SportsNet Chicago

The Owen Daniels(notes) knee injury is the biggest news coming out of Week 8. He’s done for the year with a torn ACL.

The game was disastrous for fantasy owners who own Steve Slaton(notes) for other reasons. We’ve been warning you for weeks in this Scouting Notebook about his fumbling problems and advising you to sell high. Now, it’s too late. He was benched in the first quarter and Ryan Moats(notes), who once was viewed as very interesting Brian Westbrook(notes) insurance, excelled. Moats, who is just 5-foot-8, 210 pounds, was given goal-line work and scored three fourth quarter TDs in addition to 151 yards from scrimmage. He’s the No. 1 waiver pickup this week. Slaton owners: expect Gary Kubiak to give your boy another chance.

Knowshon Moreno(notes) owners shouldn’t worry about his latest lost fumble, as it was caused by a fierce hit by Ravens safety Ed Reed(notes) a split second after Moreno established possession.

The Wildcat was neutered again this week, as teams are daring the Dolphins to pass out of it and they can’t. This is really going to cut into Ronnie Brown’s(notes) explosiveness. Ricky Williams(notes) has looked better of late running out of conventional sets. And Williams showed surprising receiving skills running an out and getting his feet down while lined up wide.

Brown says he throws only four or five passes per week when practicing the Wildcat. He should have kept his mouth shut because now teams can completely discount the pass option even when Brown is moving to his left (he’s left handed).

The Dolphins had eight yards in the third quarter but scored 21 points on two kickoff returns by Ted Ginn Jr.(notes) and a fumble return. Ginn is worthless as a receiver.

The good news for those invested in Jets is that the team was forced to take the training wheels off Mark Sanchez(notes) and the rookie responded by going 9-for-10 at one point in the second half for 180 yards with three total TDs (one rushing). His fake on the rushing TD was so good that the Dolphins were trying to recover a non-existent fumble in a pile of flesh about five seconds after Sanchez’s emphatic spike.

Leonard Weaver(notes) opened the Eagles scoring barrage with a 41-yard run as the lone back, a formation we might be seeing more of if Brian Westbrook’s concussion lingers.

Later, DeSean Jackson(notes) had another 50-plus-yard TD where he was again wide open running a rather ill-defined post corner. But few run them faster, which helps. Seconds later, Jeremy Maclin’s(notes) TD catch was more spectacular. Go get Maclin, who looks as fast as Jackson, as coverage should now roll dramatically in Jackson’s direction.

Hakeem Nicks(notes) made another spectacular play on a 35-yard heave and had one other one-on-one victory for a long ball wiped out by a penalty. Yet, with Mario Manningham(notes) (shoulder) out, Domenik Hixon(notes) started. As a receiver, Hixon is a good kick returner. Wake up, Giants! Play your best players. It isn’t complicated.

Frank Gore’s(notes) production is almost exclusively long runs, a tough way to make a living in traditional scoring formats. If your league rewards distance, Gore’s worth his preseason price.

Malcom Floyd(notes) has finally supplanted Chris Chambers(notes) as a Chargers starter. Score one for justice. But Antonio Gates(notes) owners can’t be happy. Gates, once one of the game’s most feared red zone weapons, is an afterthought now when the Chargers get close.

On the other end of the spectrum, Visanthe Shiancoe(notes) has scored nine times in his last 12 games and gets his share of the ever-growing bounty of Brett Favre(notes) TD passes. It’s Favre over Aaron Rodgers(notes) now in fantasy, too, given that Rodgers has been sacked 31 times already and is a high injury risk as a result. Too bad Favre doesn’t get to feast at the Packers expense again. Green Bay: booing Favre at the beginning of the game was classless. Enjoy your second helping of bad karma.

Rodgers’ pass protection was again problematic – especially in the first half. But he doesn’t help matters by bolting the pocket at the first flash of color.

The Packers converted LB turned TE Spencer Havner(notes) has scored two straight games. But Jermichael Finley(notes) (knee) should be back next week, so don’t bother.

This is your chance to dump the Panthers Steve Smith. Strike up the band for his first TD of the year and hope to attract a buyer. For Smith, 10 or 11 points is the upside now.

Kurt Warner(notes) is not Peyton Manning(notes). He can’t beat you by taking what the defense gives because, unlike Manning, Warner most days will make mistakes – especially when the pocket breaks down. The Cardinals must run the ball to draw in the safeties. They’ve shown some faint signs of doing this the past two weeks.

Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew(notes) looked like they were running again on Friday nights on homecoming weekend. Vince Young(notes) was in caretaker mode all day. He’s not worth rostering in any format.

Downgrade Mike Sims-Walker(notes) from a borderline No. 2 receiver to borderline fantasy starter in deep formats.

Alex Smith is another young QB who hasn’t figured out that you bide time to throw, not to run. Keep the focus downfield, son. Michael Crabtree(notes) is a player. Get him if you can.

This is as good as it’s going to get for Steven Jackson, too. If someone will pay you more than the market price for a decent No. 2 fantasy back, sell.

If you were sick of Matt Forte(notes), now’s your chance with him, too. But do you have the guts to make the move off that big week, which you should discount mightily given that it was at home against the dreadful Browns?

Michael Salfino’s work has appeared in USA Today’s Sports Weekly, RotoWire, dozens of newspapers nationwide and most recently throughout Comcast SportsNet and NESN. Michael also covers the Jets and Giants each week for SNY.tv.

Updated Nov 1, 8:14 pm EST
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24 Comments

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  1. eric
    24. Posted by eric Fri Nov 6 1:45am EST

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    Ok thanks for the advice.
  2. Salfino
    23. Posted by Salfino Thu Nov 5 11:34pm EST

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    Eric: Don't do that trade.
  3. eric
    22. Posted by eric Thu Nov 5 10:23pm EST

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    Should i trade Brandon marshall and Mike Wallace for Santana moss and Kevin Smith? I would essentialy only be using smith for this week as Thomas jones is on bye.
  4. Salfino
    21. Posted by Salfino Tue Nov 3 10:49pm EST

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    I promised to do things far worse that thank MDS if Payton put Thomas on the field to score on that last third down at the one. So, thanks, MDS. God -- we're even.
  5. <i>million_dollar_sleeper</i>
    20. Posted by million_dollar_sleeper Tue Nov 3 6:46pm EST

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    youre welcome salfino. if you need any more guidance, ill be around
  6. Salfino
    19. Posted by Salfino Tue Nov 3 5:54pm EST

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    I forgot to state the obvious -- Bell had more carries than Thomas. Why? Who knows. But why should Sean Payton give a crap as long as the Saints keep winning. Thomas owners need the Saints to lose.
  7. Salfino
    18. Posted by Salfino Tue Nov 3 4:26pm EST

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    Well, I told you that I was starting Thomas over Bell in my biggest league. Look, no one is rooting for Thomas more than me. I am heavily invested. But even yesterday there were bad signs. Do you like your No. 1 RB looking over to the bench after EVERY SINGLE CARRY to see if he's coming out of the game? And most times, he was. Given Thomas that goal-line catch at the end saved my bacon in a very big way. But that was RANDOM. If he wanted to run it, it would have been Bell, I bet. And now teams know that they'll screen it to Thomas near the end zone if he's in. With Bush in, they do that pitch play. With Bell, it's mostly a run right up the gut or a QB sneak. I know the Saints offense better than their opponents, it seems. I mean, I saw that Bush play coming A MILE away.
  8. <i>million_dollar_sleeper</i>
    17. Posted by million_dollar_sleeper Tue Nov 3 4:13pm EST

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    pierre thomas
  9. Fitzy
    16. Posted by Fitzy Mon Nov 2 7:33pm EST

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    Why wouldn't someone have the guts to deal Forte right now? His two biggest games were against DET and CLE. The former was the only game where he exceeded 4 ypc. He only got 3.5 against the Browns, which is pitiful given how much higher their average ypc-allowed is. The only reason his stat line looks halfway decent is because the game got out of hand (it was the BROWNS, after all!), and he was given a lot of junk carries to run out the clock.

    I'm trying to sell him everywhere for Steve Slaton right now. Yes, I'm desperate enough to get rid of him that I'm willing to surrender Forte's # of guaranteed touches for Slaton's immense talent/upside.

    Plus, Forte's playoff schedule is absolutely dreadful.
  10. <i>sylee61801</i>
    15. Posted by sylee61801 Mon Nov 2 6:42pm EST

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    I agree with most of the posts in regards to Sims-Walker...it's too early to downgrade him already for the reasons stated in the other posts. But, one thing to keep in mind is that Garrard hasn't done much on the road this season (a combined 0 passing TDS in 4 road games so far) and Sims-Walker's best games this season have been at home. With KC at home next week and a weak KC secondary, I'm definintely starting Sims-Walker.
  11. Salfino
    14. Posted by Salfino Mon Nov 2 6:41pm EST

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    At KC he's a definite start, I agree. But this piece isn't about next week's game. It's about the rest of the season.
  12. AJ
    13. Posted by AJ Mon Nov 2 5:54pm EST

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    Throw out the Jags' first week where he didn't really play and his "lucky Saturday" weekend, and here are MSW's totals until this week: 6/106/1; 6/81; 7/91/2; 9/120.

    He has been more consistent than all but about 8 receivers that I can count, he's part of an offense that has to play from behind frequently, he has a decent #2 in Holt on the other side of the ball and an RB who requires defenses to stack the box with frequency and he is their clear big play receiver and red zone threat. If you are in a 10 team or deeper league and you are starting 3 receivers over MSW at home against KC next weekend, then please allow me to extend you an invitation to join my fantasy league for next season.
  13. Kid
    12. Posted by Kid Mon Nov 2 2:01pm EST

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    Jake Delhomme looks awful, no question about it. His decline has come extremely suddenly - Last season, Steve Smith had 1400 yards receiving in only 14 games... one of the most consistent WRs in the entire NFL. A good reminder of how quickly NFL players can "lose it", I guess.

    Would Smith be better off with Moore or Feely? I gotta believe the Panthers are sticking with Delhomme because of 1) loyalty or 2) contractual considerations.
  14. Jay Mac
    11. Posted by Jay Mac Mon Nov 2 1:47pm EST

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    exactly why is it classless for GB to boo a former player who they feel strung them along for 4 years?

    I never thought booing another teams NON Injured player could be considered classless in any Sporting Event. Why go and why cheer for your team then?
  15. Salfino
    10. Posted by Salfino Mon Nov 2 1:29pm EST

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    I love Steve Smith as a player but is Jake Delhomme even competent? Until I can answer "yes" to that question, the sell order on Smith must remain. If someone like you would pay third round value? I'd sell in a heart beat. Great point about Jackson. This is a year where there aren't close to 8-to-10 true No. 1s. But remove this context and Jackson is what we traditionally conceive of as a No. 2 back. Yards are the hard way to score, as you know. Really hard.
  16. Kid
    9. Posted by Kid Mon Nov 2 1:03pm EST

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    1) Completely agree about Nicks - the Giants seem hell-bent on using Smith, Hixon and Boss, though.... Before this game he had scored a TD in 4 straight games. Regardless of "garbage time", "flukiness" or any other factor, that is impressive for a guy who isn't considered a "starter".

    2) Downgrade MSW after one bad game? In his other games in which he played, he was fantastic. I'd still consider him a strong #2 WR.

    3) I would not be so quick to sell Steve Smith - there might not be a player with as much "upside" available so cheaply. With Carolina rushing 50 times per game, things are bound to open up for Smith - it hasn't looked good for the first 8 weeks, but things can (and usually do) change very quickly in the NFL.

    4) The Broncos keep trying to give Moreno the starting job, but he keeps handing it back in the form of lost fumbles and general unproductivity (Buckhalter is far superior to him on a YPC basis - 6.0 for Correll to 3.9 for Knowshon)

    5) Why sell Steven Jackson? On pace for 1900 total yards, at 4.8 YPC on that *awful* team... what more could you ask for out of a #2? And if he is a "#2", who are the "#1s"?
  17. Salfino
    8. Posted by Salfino Mon Nov 2 12:57pm EST

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    My thoughts on Sims-Walker: he was beaten out this summer by Troy Williamson. He started out well. He got suspended for putting a booty call above team rules. He bounced back and then was shut down by a team with a terrible pass defense. How can you start that resume every week? And then you also are buying into David Garrard, which is dicey.
  18. AJ
    7. Posted by AJ Mon Nov 2 12:22pm EST

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    I agree with #4. Sims-Walker has been great all year on a per game basis (throwing out his DNP week). Everything about the Jags looked terrible on Sunday (except for MJD), but do you really toss out MSW for one stinker? I think I'd still rather have him than a lot of other startable receivers - Housh, Burleson, Breaston, Cotchery, etc.
  19. Mass
    6. Posted by Mass Mon Nov 2 11:19am EST

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    I believe that he carved up the Packer defense like swiss cheese. That brought a huge smile to my face.
  20. T-Gap
    5. Posted by T-Gap Mon Nov 2 10:55am EST

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    If you have lost Owen Daniels, in a 14 team league, who are some good players/average players that can take his place?
  21. Dan B
    4. Posted by Dan B Mon Nov 2 10:07am EST

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    eh i dont know. smith will have more good games this year. the panthers absolutely dominated that number 1 ranked run defense of the cardinals and if they can continue to do things like that it will open things up for smith big time. also dont see why you downgrade sims walker so much after one bad game
  22. Drew
    3. Posted by Drew Mon Nov 2 2:09am EST

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    I believe the fans of Green Bay had every right to boo Favre. It brought a huge smile to my face as well.
  23. jay g
    2. Posted by jay g Mon Nov 2 1:57am EST

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    Couldn't have asked for more from Forte, as i have been looking to shop him all year
  24. Credit Wizard
    1. Posted by Credit Wizard Sun Nov 1 11:48pm EST

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    If Buffalo had any kind of offense they would be an interesting team...
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