East Coast Offense

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Worthless Week 7

I can’t think of a more worthless NFL week than this past one. I think I lost all seven of my leagues, but I haven’t checked because my laptop died, and I haven’t had a chance to get my logins and passwords emailed to me on the new one. I got through in my main survivor pool, but lost three teams with the Giants – (I had already used the Colts and Pats in those pools thanks to a cowardly and ill-advised Week 1 hedge in which I took New England. I’m starting to think hedging in survivor is almost always a mistake). Moreover, I was terrible against the spread, and unlike my poor Week 3, when the games got themselves wrong, this one was mostly on me – even if Vegas is going broke, too. Finally, I’m going to have to hear it from Brad Evans and Brandon Funston on Fantasy Football Live, as I’m pretty sure I got a negative score in the guru challenge. And, of course, I’m a Giants fan, so their disgraceful home loss to Arizona would have been hard to take even had I not bet on and tried to survive with them.

But it’s not just me. The games were mostly unwatchable – Green Bay-Cleveland, St. Louis-Indy, New England-Tampa, San-Diego-KC, Jets-Oakland and Chicago-Cincy. Even moderately close games like Philly-Washington and Carolina-Buffalo were poorly played and unexciting. And when you’re talking about a 13-game slate, that leaves only five, and I’d argue only one (Miami-New Orleans) was good, and that ended because a ref called a receiver for not being lined up propery at the 6-yard line with one second left. The game was not in doubt as New Orleans was up two scores. Would it have killed him to let the Dolphins run one more play for the cover?

My bellyaching aside, Week 7 has resulted in another chorus of writers wondering whether parity in the salary-cap era is dead, and we’re witnessing a historically wide gap between haves and have-nots. It’s possible, but I still think unlikely. First, even good teams get blown out sometimes – remember the Giants beating the Joe Montana-Jerry Rice(notes) 49ers 49-3 in the first round of the 1986 playoffs? Even this week, the Bears were blown out, and they’re clearly not one of the league’s dregs. Second, teams, both good and bad, will regress to the mean – even the undefeated 2007 Patriots had a much tougher time in the second half of the season than in the first. And third, for teams with new coaches, quarterbacks, offensive coordinators, etc., the experience gained by playing several more games makes a significant difference, while Drew Brees(notes), Peyton Manning(notes), Tom Brady(notes), et. al are probably about as good as they’re ever going to be.

But as Nate Davis(notes) of USA Today notes:

From 1994 to 2006, the average margin of victory league-wide for any season ranged from 10.4 to 11.9 points per game. That jumped up to 12.5 in 2007 and 12.2 last year before spiking to this season’s average spread, 14.0 points.

My feeling is that while the prominence of the passing game has grown, creating more volatility the last few years (and bigger disparities in final scores), the 14.0 over seven weeks is an outlier, and we should expect closer to 12.5 the rest of the way. The other possible explanation – that five or six organizations have simultaneously become so much worse than the usual bottom feeders in the same season – strikes me as farfetched.

Either way, the lines for Week 8 are already unusually large given the matchups (Is San Diego really laying 17? They’re not even good! And Detroit laying 9.5 – is that even allowed?)

Why You Need Patience with High-Upside Players

I drafted Miles Austin(notes) in three leagues (didn’t keep him in any), Michael Crabtree(notes) in one (dropped him, too), but did manage to hold onto Shonn Greene(notes) and Beanie Wells(notes) in two, so I don’t have to grub for them on the waiver wire. With bye weeks and short benches, holding onto high-upside players who are not currently getting opportunities is difficult, but you should do everything you can to keep them. That means dropping David Garrard(notes) as your backup QB and doing your best to find a bye-week replacement on the waiver wire. Same with your backup tight end. Jeremy Maclin(notes) (despite two quiet games), Robert Meachem(notes), Roy Williams (I doubt the Cowboys have given up on him yet), Donald Brown(notes) and Darren McFadden(notes) are all worth picking up or getting as throw-ins in a trade.

Things to Take Away from Week 7

• Eli Manning(notes) suddenly looks like the version from three years ago – making poor decisions and looking flustered. Hakeem Nicks(notes) scored another long touchdown on a lucky deflection, but did outrun the entire Arizona secondary to take it the distance. Steve Smith is still the team’s most consistent receiver. Mario Manningham(notes) is alternatively brilliant and terrible from play to play. There’s nothing wrong with Brandon Jacobs(notes).

• It couldn’t look much worse for Pierre Thomas(notes) as Mike Bell(notes) took over down the stretch against the Dolphins. Now might actually be a good time to target Thomas as he’ll come cheap, and he’s still the best back in a high-powered offense. He might only see 10-12 carries a game for the next few weeks, but if that moves to 15-18 by the time your league’s playoffs roll around, he could be a difference maker. If I have Hines Ward(notes) or the Giants’ Steve Smith, I’d make an offer.

• Alex Smith is worth a look in deeper leagues if you’re stuck with a mediocre QB. He’ll get a chance going forward, and a shoulder injury was partially responsible for his struggles the last couple years. Moreover, his college coach Urban Meyer expected him to struggle badly in the NFL at first, but to be very good eventually. With Vernon Davis(notes), Crabtree and Frank Gore(notes) out of the backfield, San Francisco has more passing game weapons than at any time since Terrell Owens(notes) left.

• Even though he fumbled again, Steve Slaton(notes) is still a top-10 back. He’s the Texans’ version of Ray Rice(notes), which is a lot like Brian Westbrook(notes) in his prime.

Things to Watch in Week 8 • Can Eli Manning and the Giants get back in sync against a tough Philly defense?

• Can Denver keep it rolling on the road against a tough Ravens team – specifically, can Denver’s defense hold up against Baltimore’s balanced attack?

• Can the Falcons hang in New Orleans and keep the NFC South competitive?

• Forget about Brett Favre(notes) beating the Packers in Minnesota – the real test will be at Lambeau Field this week.

Beating the Book

Line: Broncos +3 at Ravens

Never mind their record, the Ravens are an elite team, losing in Minnesota on a missed field goal, losing to the Bengals on the last play of the game and losing to New England due to some ticky-tack roughing the passer calls. Of course, Denver hasn’t needed to explain away any losses, but the point is Baltimore’s an equal and needs the game far more. Back the Ravens.

Prediction: Ravens 24 - 17

We’re 4-3 in this forum on the season, 46-56-1 overall (3-9-1 last week). We were 12-5 in this forum last year, but 124-122 on the season overall. From 1999-2008 we’re 1308-1140 (53.4%, not including ties).

The full article comes out on Thursday morning.

Surviving Week 8

Unless you took the Giants like I foolishly did in a couple pools, or the Panthers, Week 7 was fairly uneventful as most of the big favorites rolled. (I had the Pats in this space and in most pools.) It’s been an easier than usual year so far in Survivor, but that could change very quickly as it did in Week 6 when the Eagles and Jets went down.

This week, the two slam-dunk games are the Chargers at home against the Raiders and the Bears at home against the Browns. Don’t get cute with the Cowboys at home against Seattle, and definitely don’t be crazy enough to “use up” the Lions at home against the Rams. Between the Chargers and Bears, I’ll probably go San Diego because I’d be less surprised to see Derek Anderson(notes) play a competent game than JaMarcus Russell(notes). Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind when the full article comes out Thursday night.