Breakfast Table: Peyton makes perfect

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From: Scott Pianowski
Date: November 18, 2009 2:54:16 PM EST
To: Michael Salfino
Subject: we don’t punt breakfast

Alright, let’s get this party started. (I’m going with the one-word spelling as a nod to our pending halftime entertainment.)

Dick Jauron got the kindest in-season firing ever – because of L’Affair Belichick, I’m not sure anyone really noticed. Got anything interesting to add to the Bill Belichick story? Do the Jets have a puncher’s chance in the grudge match at Foxboro?

A tip of the cap, you were out in front of the Chargers story. Why does the San Diego-Denver rematch leave me a little cold? Maybe it’s because watching Chris Simms(notes) makes my eyes bleed. Give me a reason to tune in.

Do the Colts or Saints have a shot at running the table? What’s happened to Baltimore’s offense after that tidy start? We should discuss the Colts-Ravens somewhere in here. What becomes of Eric Mangini after he’s fired in January?

The Cowboys, Falcons and Steelers spit the bit last week after getting an endorsement from at least one of us. What’s fact and what’s fiction with these clubs? And explain to all of us how you see the Giants winning 11 games.

I’ve set the table, add whatever you like and mix well. Week 11 Breakfast is served.

From: Michael Salfino
Date: November 18, 2009 3:22:49 PM EST
To: Scott Pianowski
Subject: Re: we don’t punt breakfast

Well, remember, I said afterward that I made the specific prediction for dramatic effect. But I will take credit for seeing that the Broncos were a fraudulent Super Bowl contender even with a healthy Kyle Orton(notes). (Think for a second of how funny those last six words are and you get a sense for how wild the Orton stuff was about a month ago – MVP!?! Who did we all turn into, Peter King?)

I don’t see the controversy with Belichick, really. And you know going back years that no one would like to hoist him on his petard as much as me. That taking a safety crap against the Broncos that cemented his genius was completely overblown as it was essentially meaningless to the outcome. But this was absolutely necessary. My thoughts:

Games have momentum and it was all with the Colts. Manning was hot and just about unstoppable. You give him back the ball at the two minute warning and with a timeout and time is not a factor. You have to stop him. The first 30 yards you’re not even trying to defend. So then the game is the last 30 yards. He got them after the failed fourth down and he very likely would have got them without it. The best way to look at this is, if you’re rooting for the Colts, what do you want the Patriots to do on fourth-and-2? If you have a clue, you want them to punt the ball. You don’t want Brady, 7-for-10 in third-and-short situations this year at this point and 16-for-19 in 2007, getting another play where he can hit five different guys for the conversion.

The Saints are going to be favorites, I think, in all of their remaining games. So, yes, they have a shot. Speaking for fantasy owners of Pierre Thomas(notes) and now Marques Colston(notes), I hope some team wipes that smug little smirk off Sean Payton’s face. I want to see him going down without getting the ball to his best back and best receiver. Share the wealth right to the poor house, son.

You know, the Colts have won 12 games or more every year since 2003? How incredible is Manning? Imagine if he was on a good team all these years! Indy does just enough around him, I will stipulate, but nothing more. There’s nothing 12-winnish about the rest of this team ever. I can’t say the line is great, because they can’t run block despite all the Manning advantages. (I give Manning at least half the sack credit). The receivers are okay, but Reggie Wayne(notes) has hit the jackpot. Put Steve Smith (Giants) or Jerricho Cotchery(notes) on the Colts and they would be Wayne, I guarantee it. Dallas Clark(notes) is 80 percent a product of Manning.

The Ravens bore me. They can’t beat the Colts because they can’t defend the pass. And we got ahead of ourselves with Joe Flacco(notes) and that offense, too.

Matt Ryan(notes) – average QB now. And that’s not bad for a second year guy. He has enough and isn’t winning games when the game is resting on him. The rest of the Falcons team, on balance, is bad.

I still like the Cowboys. That game in Green Bay was weird. Everything went wrong and there was never any offensive rhythm. I think they probably stay ahead of the Giants and win that division.

Mangini and the Browns in general – snore.

The Giants aren’t losing at home to Atlanta this week. Then, they’re at Denver – easy win (with or without Orton). That’s seven wins. We can quibble about 10 or 11 but I don’t see how they fail to reach double digits. They get the Cowboys and Eagles (who aren’t any good – half of McNabb’s incompletions are poor throws or drops – at home). At Minnesota is now very unlikely to be contested, too in Week 17.

From: Scott Pianowski
Date: November 19, 2009 11:15:56 PM EST
To: Michael Salfino
Subject: Re: we don’t punt breakfast

Marques Colston did fumble away a touchdown last week but I hear you – Payton at times seems to have the designer’s arrogance. Get your football to your best players. Pierre Thomas is criminally underused.

Bill Belichick is one of the few tenured coaches in sports who’s allowed to do what he wants with game strategy, unconventional or not. Most of these guys are playing for the friendliest loss, playing not to get crushed by the media. Heck, remember the Mike Shanahan two-pointer last year, we were talking about how he was one of the few coaches with the security to make that call. Four months later, he’s packing up and headed out.

You don’t give Reggie Wayne enough credit. Perfect routes, quick out of his breaks, velcro hands. Maybe he doesn’t have that one skill that makes your jaw drop, but what’s wrong with being great at everything?

The underreported story in Baltimore is that the pass defense really isn’t that good (20th in YPA allowed). I blame some of Flacco’s struggles on the receivers – there’s only so far you can go with an old Derrick Mason(notes) as your No. 1. They’ve done a nice job with Ray Rice(notes) and they rebuilt the line quickly, but I don’t think they’ll give the Colts much trouble.

Matt Ryan will be fine. It’s a shame they don’t have a Joseph Addai(notes) type here, someone who can pick up the blitz, release for all those massaging checkdowns. Two trustable receivers isn’t enough – every good passing team has more than that. And you get the idea Roddy White’s(notes) knee is bothering him more than the team is letting on.

The Cowboys are like the Eagles, they rely too much on big plays. Give either team a third-and-short and they have no clue what to do. It’s obvious Marion Barber(notes) isn’t healthy and that really hurts what Dallas wants to do on offense.

I don’t mind when the Dick Vermeil types cry after an emotional game, but when it’s burly men like Rex Ryan, something’s wrong. Defend the Jersey tearjerker.

From: Michael Salfino
Date: November 19, 2009 11:46:59 PM EST
To: Scott Pianowski
Subject: Re: we don’t punt breakfast

Finally. Do I discuss Week 12 now?

Wayne is not great at everything. He’s a very good, tops. If he’s “great,” what’s Larry Fitzgerald(notes)? Put Wayne on the Panthers and he’s toast. As (Chris) Liss and I talked about on his podcast today, if you put Derrick Mason on the Colts for his career, he’s an inner-circle HOF’er.

Same deal with Dallas Clark. “He’s so athletic,” we always hear. I call bullcrap on that. He has average athleticism for an NFL tight end. Put him on the Ravens for his career and he’s lucky if he’s Todd Heap(notes).

The Ravens are actually 18th in YPA allowed, but that’s the week after the Browns. Other teams get to play them, too, I know. Liss was funny because he was talking about how unstoppable Manning is and then was trying to talk me into going with him and backing the Ravens. I guess he allows himself to pick only one road favorite per week.

We’re supposed to feel sorry for Ryan because he’s been stuck with that stiff Michael Turner(notes)? Turner picks up a blitz just fine. Look, there’s nothing wrong with regressing to average in your second year. The possibilities for him are all still in play.

I don’t understand your body mass index-to-tears formula. I’m past crying over the Jets, but I was there when I was young and relatively carefree. This is his career. He goes to battle with his guys every week. He lived with them all summer. Caring enough to tear up when trying to rally his team is fine with me. But all this crap is just a sideshow. The Jets need to start winning close games. They’re plus-41 in point differential and are 4-5, which is very unlucky. Look at the Bengals at plus-51 – they are 7-2. Pittsburgh is only plus-50. They won’t lose close this week, though. Brady and Belichick will beat them big.

You have to give up that Cowboys short-yardage angle. It’s tortured. Dallas is 11-for-16 converting third down and two yards or less (7-for-8 on the ground). The Eagles are 13-for-22. You’re suffering from confirmation bias with both teams. It’s common. We all do it. We have an opinion and remember only what supports it and forget everything else. I know about it AND STILL do it. At this point, “the Eagles suck at short yardage” meme will never die.

Here’s the bottom line on the Cowboys and why they remain very dangerous despite the egg they laid in Green Bay. Any team that plays Dallas can play their A-game and still lose if Dallas plays its A-game. Now, I’ll grant you, Dallas plays its A-game way too infrequently, especially when all the marbles are in play.