NFL Skinny: Week 10 preview

What to watch for: Hard to believe the traditionally blue collar Bears have the 2nd-fewest rush attempts per game in the league. And, although Chris Johnson ran wild on SF last week, I wouldn’t count on RB Matt Forte(notes) to get many opportunities against a 49ers defense that is allowing a league-low 3.4 YPC and is sure to be grumpy after a loss to TEN last week. If Forte has any success, it’s likely to be out of the backfield as a receiver – SF has allowed the 4th-most receiving FAN PTS to RBs and Forte compiled a season-high 74 yards on 6 catches last week. QB Jay Cutler(notes) has been a turnover machine in four road games (10 INTs) and his pass protection is getting worse by the week (sacked a combined 8 times by CLE and ARI the past 2 games). That said, he’s a good bet to throw upwards of 40 times this Thursday and, after finding TE Greg Olsen(notes) for 3 TDs in Week 9, don’t be surprised if he leans on speedy WR Devin Hester(notes) in this one. SF is without CB Nate Clements(notes), S Michael Lewis is hurting and the team enters this contest having allowed the 9th-most pass plays of 20+ yards. WR Earl Bennett(notes) put up nice yardage last week, but he’s running under the caution flag from now until CHI finally lets him get even a sniff of the end zone.

CHI has allowed 5 TD passes to two of the past three teams it has faced, with utterly inept CLE being the one team to not join the pass party going on against the Bears. Obviously, the matchup looks good for QB Alex Smith. But SF lost last week to TEN thanks, in large part, to four turnovers from its former No. 1 overall pick. Smith throwing the ball 45 times is not an ideal situation for head coach Mike Singletary. At least the team now can pose a threat in the passing game with TE Vernon Davis(notes) and WR Michael Crabtree(notes). Not coincidentally, RB Frank Gore(notes) has come back to life in the past two games with Smith at the helm, averaging 146 YFS and scoring in each contest. I suspect SF will lean on Gore for 20+ carries in this one and I hold the opinion that Gore will get somewhere in the neighborhood of 146 YFS once again. TE Vernon Davis is now the highest-scoring TE in fantasy. I finally made the decision to sit TE Tony Gonzalez(notes) for Davis last week and it turned out just fine. CHI has allowed the 11th-most FAN PPG to TEs (50), so party on, VD. No. 1 WRs have gone wild against CHI this season, but WR Michael Crabtree is only three games into his NFL career and, as I said, I expect SF to play it more conservatively with Smith this week. I’m putting Crabtree down as a “yellow light,” but he’s really more of a “chartreuse” option. I’ve liked WR Jason Hill(notes) (2 TDs in Week 9) since his days at Washington State and he looks like he’ll be seeing the field at the expense of WR Isaac Bruce(notes) going forward.

Like ATL, CAR has bunkered down with the running game and RB DeAngelo Williams(notes) has exploded to the tune of 137 rushing yards per game and a combined 5 TDs in his past four games. Both Williams and backup RB Jonathan Stewart(notes) should be rock-solid against an ATL defense allowing 4.5 YPC. And the threat of a CAR running game clicking on all cylinders should make ATL even more prone to giving up big plays in the passing game – ATL has allowed a league-high 31 pass plays of 20+ yards. I’d wager that WR Steve Smith comes up with a catch of 40+ yards for the 4th consecutive week en route to his first 100-yard receiving game since Week 2 (against you-know-who). Because TE Jeff King(notes) has been roped into some duty at FB with Brad Hoover(notes) out and given TE Dante Rosario’s(notes) current tenuous health, I’d avoid any thoughts leading you to buy into a CAR TE as a sleeper. Play the big guns for CAR, and forget about the outliers.

TB has allowed 14.0 yards per catch (3rd-most in the NFL) and 10 pass plays of 40+ yards (2nd-most in the NFL). But it’s the 3rd-most run on team in the league thanks to a healthy 4.8 YPC allowed clip. You just can’t get excited about the MIA passing attack given that its WR stable is full of a bunch of No. 3 possession types (Davone Bess(notes), Brian Hartline(notes), Greg Camarillo(notes)) and one true speed demon with truly awful hands in Ted Ginn Jr.(notes) You can expect that someone from the group will net out well as the change-up option to the running game (be it Wildcat or traditional). But MIA WRs don’t score TDs (just 2 total), so why even bother trying to guess who it might be this week. MIA averages the 2nd-most rush attempts in the league and RBs Ronnie Brown(notes) and Ricky Williams(notes) will be busy yet again on Sunday. Start them both. At QB, Chad Henne(notes) is a game manager and he’ll be lucky to make it inside my top 25 QBs for any given week. And an increased Wildcat role for backup Pat White(notes) (6 carries, 45 rushing yards in Week 9) only marginalizes Henne even more. I would call White a sleeper, but not as a fantasy QB (where his eligibility lies).

DET allows the highest QB rating in the NFL (107.3). It ranks among the top 5 most generous in FAN PPG allowed to QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs. Take inventory of MIN players available to you this week and start them. That means QB Brett Favre(notes) (who would have expected he would have the fewest INTs among regulars this season?), RB Adrian Peterson, WRs Percy Harvin(notes), Sidney Rice(notes), Bernard Berrian(notes) and TE Visanthe Shiancoe(notes). And you could easily convince me that backup RB Chester Taylor(notes), who has 50 of his 69 touches this season when MIN has a lead, is a solid sleeper play.

If the Jets wanted to take its shots in the passing game, there’s plenty of reason to believe they’d be successful. JAC has just 8 sacks, fewest in the league. And the Jags also have amassed just 5 INTS, 4th-fewest in the league. But the NYJ operate the most run-heavy offense in the league (36.9 carries per game). And there’s not a serious reason to doubt that it will be able to be successful on the ground against JAC. QB Mark Sanchez(notes) should be in full game-manager role, but WRs Braylon Edwards(notes) and/or Jerricho Cotchery(notes) could find a ripe opportunity mixed in. Put them both down as high upside “yellow lights” but be cautious about resurgent TE Dustin Keller(notes). JAC has allowed the 3rd-fewest FAN PPG to TEs, holding all TEs it has faced to fewer than 40 receiving yards, including Dallas Clark(notes), Owen Daniels(notes) and John Carlson(notes).

QB Ben Roethlisberger(notes) isn’t pretty to watch sometimes, but he’s effective nonetheless. He’s No. 5 among QBs in FAN PPG despite ranking just 13th in pass attempts. And he hasn’t really let fantasy owners down in any of his past six meetings with CIN, including 276 passing yards, 1 passing TD and 1 rushing TD against the Bengals in Week 3. The fact that CIN doesn’t have DE Antwan Odom(notes) only bolsters optimism for Big Ben in this one. Bracket attention paid to WR Santonio Holmes(notes) limited him to just a 1/18 line in the first meeting and WRs Hines Ward(notes) (4/82) and Mike Wallace(notes) (7/102) reaped the benefits. CIN will probably play more straight-up coverage this week. CIN allows the 7th-most pass plays of 20+ yards and I have a feeling Holmes will get CIN back with a big play in this one. CIN has had the 2nd-fewest rush attempts against and rushing yards have been very hard to come by against CIN in recent weeks as Ray Rice(notes) (twice), Steve Slaton(notes) and Matt Forte have been held to under 70 rushing yards in the past four contests. But, if you watched PIT at DEN on Monday night, you have to feel good about RB Rashard Mendenhall’s(notes) chances in any situation. However, Mendenhall nearly lost a fumble for the 3rd straight game on MNF, and considering how much receiving production CIN allows to RBs (2nd-most receiving yards), backup RB Mewelde Moore(notes) is a sneaky deep-league flyer. TE Heath Miller(notes) is averaging just 28 receiving yards and is scoreless in his past two. He also had just 20 yards and did not score in the Week 3 contest at CIN. But CIN has allowed the 4th-most receptions to TEs (50), and it could be without LB Keith Rivers(notes) this week, so consider Miller more a chartreuse option when you see him listed under the “yellow light” plays below.

Start RB Steven Jackson – NO has been hemorrhaging in rush defense with DT Sedrick Ellis(notes) and LB Scott Fujita(notes) out. Dismiss all other Rams – since WR Laurent Robinson(notes) went down, this has been a fairly tried and true outcome for STL.

So far, so good for QB Vince Young(notes). He’s doing exactly what TEN wants him to do – game manage to the hilt. He’s completed 73% of the 18.5 passes he’s averaged the past two weeks. And he didn’t turn the ball over in those contests. He’s not a QB you want to start in fantasy, but he’s doing enough to keep the offense in business and allow RB Chris Johnson to do his thing. Johnson could turn in another amazing performance (he’s had three games with at least 160 YFS and 2 TDs) against a BUF defense that is allowing a league-high 5.1 YPC. Everyone in the stadium will know that Johnson is going to get the ball repeatedly, yet it is still doubtful that BUF will be able to stop him. And now that Johnson has taken on goal line work, you can’t get excited about RB LenDale White(notes). BUF gives up healthy production to TEs, so you could talk me into believing in TE Bo Scaife(notes) as a sleeper. But this is the Chris Johnson show and the rest of the team is just garnish.

WAS has yet to score more than 17 points in a game, and its average of 14.1 PPG is 4th-worst in the league. To make matters worse, it faces a DEN defense that allows just 15.5 PPG, 3rd-fewest in the league, and it will do so without RB Clinton Portis(notes). Every way you look at it, WAS appears to be in trouble. The Redskins have allowed the 3rd-most sacks in the league (28) and the DEN defense has tallied the 3rd-most sacks (26). This doesn’t bode well for QB Jason Campbell(notes) and the WAS passing game. The only WAS player I’d consider this week would be backup RB Ladell Betts(notes), who’ll fill in for the concussed Portis. Betts had 15 carries for 70 yards and a TD last week at ATL. And his value as a receiver could come in very handy this Sunday against a DEN defense that has allowed the 6th-most receptions (45) and 5th-most receiving yards (362) to RBs.

Words don’t adequately express how poor the KC secondary has been this season. KC allows 14.1 yards per catch (2nd-most in the NFL). It has allowed 12 pass plays of 40+ yards, most in the NFL, and ranks last in the league with just 3 INTs. Certainly its last line of defense gets no help from its first line of defense – its 10 sacks is the 2nd-fewest in the league. But QB JaMarcus Russell(notes) can only be trusted to take advantage of favorable SEC matchups, not juicy NFL ones. He was just 7-of-24 for 109 yards in his previous meeting in Week 2. And his best option, TE Zach Miller, was shutout in that contest. OAK is last in the league in Time of Possession (26:38), but it is likely to get RB Darren McFadden(notes) back from a knee injury this week. Plan on OAK trying to finally chew on some clock with a heavy dose of McFadden and RB Justin Fargas(notes). KC allows the 7th-most FAN PPG to RBs and, given the QB it’s saddled with, you have to expect OAK to put forth its best effort to rock the running game.

If you remove two long Frank Gore runs against SEA in Week 2, the Seahawks are allowing just 3.6 YPC for the season. ARI averaged just 2.4 YPC on 26 carries against SEA back in Week 6. RB Beanie Wells(notes) has averaged 61 rushing yards and 5.3 YPC in the three games since that meeting, but he’s getting little goal line love or work in the passing game. If you are going to lean on a RB here, stick with Tim Hightower(notes), who is 2nd among RBs with 40 catches and has a TD in four of the past five games. In the Ken Whisenhunt era, the Cardinals have averaged 42 pass attempts in five meetings with SEA. QB Kurt Warner(notes) dissected the Hawks in Week 6, connecting on 32 of 41 passes for 276 yards and 2 TDs. WR Larry Fitzgerald(notes) recorded his 3rd consecutive 100-yard game against SEA in that contest. WR Anquan Boldin is still dealing with a high ankle sprain, but he took exception to being held out last week by Whisenhunt. Expect him to try to take his frustration out on a SEA team that he hung a 13/186 line on in Week 11 last season. No. 3 WR Steve Breaston(notes) had his best performance of the season against SEA in the previous meeting, going 7/77/1. He’s proven to be at least serviceable even when Boldin does play, and he’s almost a no-brainer when Boldin is out. Color him chartreuse this week.

GB has allowed the most sacks in the league (37), and it’s not even close. To make matters worse, it has injury issues on the offensive line that has helped keep the problem festering. DAL ranks 7th in the league with 21 sacks, and QB Aaron Rodgers(notes) will have to particularly beware of DE DeMarcus Ware(notes) and DT Jay Ratliff(notes), who have a combined 8 sacks in the past four games. Rodgers will have to hope TE Jermichael Finley(notes) can make it back from a knee injury this week to offer that safety valve option that proved so valuable at MIN in Week 4 (6/128/1). DAL has two superb talents at CB in Terence Newman(notes) and Mike Jenkins(notes), and the two could give WRs Greg Jennings(notes) and Donald Driver(notes) serious problems if they have to break off their routes because of the lack of time afforded Rodgers. I’d lean on the possession skills of Driver over the deep talents of Jennings – both have been targeted 59 times this season, with Driver delivering 3 FAN PPG more than Jennings on average. RB Ryan Grant(notes) has been beating up 90-pound weaklings of the NFL of late, facing TB, CLE, DET and STL in four of his past six games. For fantasy purposes, he’s the definition of average. He’s getting 12 fantasy points per game and I could see him delivering to his average in the same boring, yet serviceable, manner he did in Week 1 against CHI (16/61/1). No. 3 WR James Jones(notes) has scored in three of his past four, but he’s averaging just 2 receptions per game in that span and WR Jordy Nelson(notes) could be back on Sunday. I probably wouldn’t press my luck with Jones this week.

SDG operates the worst rushing offense in the league (3.1 YPC). RB LaDainian Tomlinson(notes) is clearly at the end of his road, and you want to avoid him against a stout PHI run defense. SDG is going to have to go up top often with QB Philip Rivers(notes) in this one. PHI is a heavily blitzing defense and it is second in the league with 27 sacks and 15 INTs. I don’t think it is a coincidence that the Eagles defense has allowed the 2nd-most receptions to TEs. Expect TE Antonio Gates(notes) to be a heavily-utilized blitz relief option, and I also think backup RB Darren Sproles(notes) will play a heavy roll in that regard, too. WR Vincent Jackson(notes) has proven over and over this season that he is a must-start wideout, scoring 10+ FAN PTS in seven of eight contests. And the fact that PHI has injury issues in its secondary should only make you feel better. I’d avoid new starting WR Malcom Floyd(notes). PHI is tough enough as it is, and Floyd has yet to catch more than 3 passes or surpass 65 receiving yards.

NE yields the 4th-fewest passing yards per game, much of the credit going to its offense for dominating Time of Possession (Pats lead the league in that department). But IND has a highly efficient offense as well and if you are coming to this forum looking for someone to tell you to bench QB Peyton Manning(notes), WR Reggie Wayne(notes) or TE Dallas Clark, you’ve come to the wrong place. You just can’t concern yourself with the defense in regards to those three. As for RB Joseph Addai(notes), it’s hard to fault someone that has scored 7 TDs in eight games and is averaging 76 YFS, even if the production wasn’t tallied in the prettiest fashion. WR Austin Collie(notes) is dealing with a neck injury and WR Pierre Garcon(notes) has been wildly inconsistent. I’d stick with Indy’s Fantastic 4 only this week.

CLE head coach Eric Mangini has named QB Brady Quinn(notes) the starter once again. This isn’t big news in fantasy circles. This is an offense averaging 9.8 points per game. It put three points on the board against BAL in Week 3. Whether it is Derek Anderson(notes) or Brady Quinn, it doesn’t make RB Jamaal Lewis or WR Mohamed Massaquoi(notes) any more attractive, and right now they look like Chris Farley dressed up like a lunch lady. The only Browns player I’m intrigued about is hybrid Joshua Cribbs(notes). He had a beefed-up Wildcat role in Week 8 before the bye and it’s likely that CLE used the bye week to add new wrinkles to his role. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets 10-plus touches for the first time in his career. He’s the most dangerous player the team has and, well, what do you have to lose, Man-genius?