NFL Skinny: Week 3 preview

The good news for rookie QB Matthew Stafford(notes), who has thrown five picks in two games, is that the Redskins have just one interception in two games. Regardless of that fact, though, the Lions will likely look to ride RB Kevin Smith(notes) fairly heavily once again (he rushed 24 times in Week 2 v. MIN) – the Redskins have allowed a healthy 4.4 YPC. And, of course, they’ll take their shots with WR Calvin Johnson(notes) when the opportunity looks ripe. Smith and Johnson remain the only two Lions worth fantasy consideration, and I’d feel comfortable rolling with both this week.

The Rams, who have just one touchdown in two games, are dealing with some injury issues on the offense line – C Jason Brown(notes), RT Jason Smith(notes) and LT Alex Barron(notes) could all be either limited or out in Week 3. This could make it tough for the team to run against a GB defense that has allowed just 3.6 YPC. But expect STL to try, and it won’t hurt if both Packers starting safeties are out. RB Steven Jackson pounded out 6.1 YPC against WAS in Week 2 and he absolutely needs to be handling the ball in some fashion 25+ times this week. The Rams were fairly equitable in their run/pass distribution last week. They’ll shoot for balance once again, and when they go to the air, WR Laurent Robinson(notes) has quickly established himself as QB Marc Bulger’s(notes) go-to guy. WR Donnie Avery(notes) looks droppable in shallow and mid-sized leagues. He has just seven catches for 50 yards in two games, and he’s lost a fumble in each. The team just doesn’t buy Bulger enough time to take advantage of Avery’s speed deep.

We know after two weeks that SF is committed to the run. The team does not pass protect well (8 sacks allowed), and the strength of QB Shaun Hill(notes) is his efficiency and game-management skills. Considering how proficient MIN is at getting to the QB, it’s going to be business as usual for RB Frank Gore(notes) – he’s likely to get 20+ carries even if he’s struggling to reach 2.0 YPC like we saw in Week 1, and despite the fact that he’s dealing with a mild ankle sprain. With time in the pocket expected to be an issue, don’t count on much from WRs Isaac Bruce(notes) and Josh Morgan(notes). But TE Vernon Davis(notes), who has 13 targets through two games, could be a big factor – Minnesota has allowed a combined 100 yards to lesser brand TEs Robert Royal(notes) and Brandon Pettigrew.

Tom Brady(notes) has thrown 100 passes in two games, for which head coach Bill Bellichick is unapologetic. While Brady is still trying to rediscover that extreme comfort level in the pocket he was once known for, the passing game is still the clear strength of this offense and a stubborn Bellichick is likely to have Brady airing it out at least 40 times again on Sunday. But pass protection could be a bit problematic as ATL has generated 4 QB sacks from right-side DEs John Abraham(notes) and Kroy Biermann(notes), and NE LT Matt Light(notes) has been taking heat for his diminishing skills (read: quickness). Brady has only been sacked once, but he’s been under the gun often this season. If he does get time, Randy Moss(notes) and Wes Welker(notes) (if healthy; if not, Welkian backup Julian Edelman(notes)) could have a field day against the Falcons’ suspect corners. Finally, don’t be surprised if RB Fred Taylor(notes), who ran with fire last week, receives 12+ carries on Sunday.

TEN is very susceptible in the secondary, as the team has allowed 10+ pass plays of 20+ yards, second-most in the NFL. Inexperience is becoming less and less of a concern for QB Mark Sanchez(notes) each passing week as he proves he’s capable and mature beyond his years. Rex Ryan opened things up for Sanchez in the second half of Week 2 vs. New England and Sanchez delivered in spades. No doubt that the Jets will look to see if the running game is viable early, but TEN has allowed just 1.9 YPC this season. If not, look for the team to use TE Dustin Keller(notes) heavily – TEN has allowed healthy yardage to TEs – and get creative with RB Leon Washington(notes) – perhaps a wheel route or two? WR Chansi Stuckey(notes) has been Sanchez’s preferred deep option, which is something to consider given how many times TEN has been burned deep.

This should be a long day for the KC offense, with its anemic offensive line going against an athletic, attacking PHI defense. RB Larry Johnson(notes) ran 24 times for 78 yards in Week 2 and, with RB Jamaal Charles(notes) (healthy scratch in Week 2) seemingly in the doghouse, LJ should see extensive work once again, and he’s likely to be equally as impotent as he was in Week 2. WR Bobby Wade(notes) signed with KC prior to Week 2 and made an immediate impact for the team, leading KC in targets (9), catches (6) and receiving yards (72) on Sunday. His short-game, possession skills will likely come in handy for QB Matt Cassel(notes) once again in Week 3. WR Dwayne Bowe(notes) has managed to find pay dirt in each of the first two weeks despite just 5 targets in each contest. The likelihood that KC is playing from behind gives Bowe good odds at scoring in his third straight game.

Few, if anyone, predicted that the NYG would be the second-worst rush defense (6.7 YPC) after two weeks. DAL shredded a Justin Tuck(notes)-less defensive front in the second half this past Sunday night, rushing for 173 yards and two touchdowns. Obviously, Tuck’s Week 3 availability, shoulder injury, will dictate a bit of how TB attacks the Giants. Certainly, TB would like to get the ground game going again after BUF shut it down (57 rushing yards, 3.0 YPC) in Week 2. It would afford them the best chance to stay close early, something the team has struggled with – it fell behind 20-7 to DAL in Week 1 and 17-0 to BUF in Week 2. As a team that wants to run the ball, but has been forced to have QB Byron Leftwich(notes) hoist it 91 times in the first two weeks, this is a tough group to figure out from a fantasy standpoint. TE Kellen Winslow(notes), with 9+ targets in each game, seems the safest option. Everyone else is running under at least a caution flag.

Nobody runs more than BAL. Not last year and not in ’09, at least. With CLE allowing 5.6 YPC, there is little reason for BAL to come in planning to let QB Joe Flacco(notes) win this one with his arm. RB Ray Rice(notes) likely gets a lot of carries in this one, with RB Willis McGahee(notes) stealing a dozen carries or more as well as Rice’s thunder at the goal line. Worth considering is that CLE allowed just 1 TD to a TE in ’08 and has allowed just 5 receptions to TEs in ’09. I’d be leery of TE Todd Heap(notes), who had just 1 reception for 9 yards in Week 2. Play-action should be available for Flacco – CLE has allowed 6 of 33 passes completed against them to go for 20+ yards. Don’t be surprised if emerging deep-ball specialist WR Kelley Washington(notes) gets the chance to end zone dance once again.

Is this the game RB Steve Slaton(notes) finally breaks out? Last season, two of his top six fantasy efforts came against JAC. But that means little right now for a RB that has drawn the ire of head coach Gary Kubiak for fumbling three times in 26 carries through two games. If he drops the rock again in Week 3, RB Chris Brown becomes a nightmare for Slaton owners. Slaton’s been called to task, and I expect he’ll be motivated and given opportunities early to make amends. You obviously don’t sit WR Andre Johnson after a monstrous Week 2 performance, but just beware that JAC CB Rashean Mathis(notes) can be problematic for top WRs, and Johnson has had his struggles with him in the past. Rookie CB Derek Cox(notes), if he plays (concussion) could lead HOU to look WR Kevin Walter’s(notes) way often. Walter looks likely to return from a hamstring injury that cost him the first two weeks of the season. JAC has just one sack in two games, so QB Matt Schaub(notes) should have time to find his plethora of receiving talents, and you really have to give strong consideration to the entire Texans stable this week.

The BUF offense has become the property of Fred Jackson(notes). After posting 140 yards from scrimmage against NE in Week 1, he tallied 34 touches and 188 YFS in Week 2 against Tampa Bay. NO has given up plenty of fantasy points through the air this season, but a shootout with Brees is the last thing BUF wants. So look for another heavy workload for Jackson as well as getting WR Terrell Owens(notes) heavily involved – he’s had just 8 targets in two games. The 6/62 effort by TE Derek Schouman(notes) in Week 2 looked intriguing following TE Brent Celek’s 104-yard effort against NO in Week 2. However, Schouman landed on the IR after the game and now rookie TE Shawn Nelson(notes),dealing with a sore shoulder, or Derek Fine(notes) must step up at TE.

It looks as though SEA QB Matt Hasselbeck(notes), who suffered what looked to be a serious Patrick Willis(notes)-induced rib injury in Week 2, might try to play on Sunday. If so, you’d expect the team to be fairly conservative and minimize the risk to Hasselbeck in the passing game. Any quick-hitting passing plan benefits WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh(notes) and TE John Carlson(notes), although CHI hasn’t allowed more than 43 yards to a TE in nine straight regular-season games. RB Justin Forsett(notes), a fantastic receiver out of the backfield who is opening eyes with his strength for a player of his size, could continue to see increased reps as an extra safety valve for Hasselbeck. If Hasselbeck can’t go, which seems the more likely scenario, QB Seneca Wallace(notes) is an athletic backup who can buy time with his feet. His presence would likely give WR Nate Burleson(notes) a better chance to produce this week. SEA is very beat up on the offensive line (and at fullback), which makes RBs Julius Jones(notes) and Edgerrin James(notes) high-risk (read: forget about it) options.

SDG might get RB LaDainian Tomlinson(notes) (ankle) back this week, but they’d probably be better off letting him sit another week. RB Darren Sproles(notes) drove home the value of his receiving talents with a 7/124/1 line against BAL in Week 2 and SDG will likely have to pin their hopes on the arm of QB Philip Rivers(notes) once again as MIA has been very good at stopping the run. The TE, however, has given MIA fits in ’09, although that’s what happens when you face Tony Gonzalez (5/73/1) and Dallas Clark(notes) (7/183/1) in back-to-back weeks. It’s not that an owner of TE Antonio Gates(notes) would ever consider sitting him, but it’s comforting to know how much trouble MIA has had against the position. WRs Roddy White and Reggie Wayne(notes) were shut down by MIA this season, but I wouldn’t worry too much about budding star WR Vincent Jackson(notes) this week. He has five inches on both of those receivers, a fact that will always keep him in business in the red zone.

RB Cedric Benson(notes) has run like a man on a mission in ’09. He was shut down by PIT in two meetings in ’08, but he looks a 2.0 version of the back we saw last year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Benson powers his way to a 25/80/1 type of day. Benson gives the PIT defense something to think about in addition to QB Carson Palmer(notes), who emerged last week with 3 TD passes. PIT has just 2 sacks in ’09, which is something that should make CIN feel confident about chucking it 30-35 times. WR Chad Ocho Cinco(notes) is the leading candidate to become the 3rd consecutive WR to victimize PIT for 70+ yards and a TD.

OAK QB currently bests only Jake Delhomme(notes) and Matthew Stafford in QB Rating, but my money is on the other two passing him up soon. Russell has made minimal strides as a decision maker and his intermediate-range accuracy is embarrassing (35.2% Comp%). You can’t start an OAK WR this week against a DEN defense that holds opponents below 200 passing yards and has been adept at sacking the QB in ’09. DEN has allowed just 2.9 YPC in ’09, but RB Darren McFadden(notes) will present a whole different level of speed than what its seen from Cedric Benson and Jamal Lewis, thus far. Expect OAK to try to get a combined 30 carries out of Run-DMC and Michael Bush(notes). And if they don’t look to TE Zach Miller more than 3 times (his Week 2 target total), it should be considered a crime. That said, DEN has yielded just 3 catches to TEs in ’09, and Miller had just modest production against DEN in ’08.

WRs have scored just 4 TDs against IND in the past 19 regular-season games. That makes WR Larry Fitzgerald’s(notes) odds of scoring in his 9th consecutive game (’08 postseason included) fairly long. That said, Fitzgerald is reportedly a bit grumpy about catching just 4 passes in Week 2 at JAC, and I suspect that ARI might try to appease him this week. In general, though, ARI is likely to be a little more run-focused than usual, and right now that would benefit RB Tim Hightower(notes) more than rookie Beanie Wells(notes). While Wells has averaged a solid 5.2 YPC in two games, he fumbled twice in Week 2 and given Hightower’s strong efforts as both a runner and receiver, he has a leg up on Wells for now.

A quad injury could knock DAL RB Marion Barber(notes) out of action on Monday. If that proves to be the case, RB Tashard Choice(notes) becomes a major beneficiary. Despite being small, he proved his toughness and versatility down the stretch in ’08 when Barber missed time. Cannonball RB Felix Jones(notes) would also see an elevated role, but it’s likely Jones and Choice would split carries evenly with both getting a low double-digit workload. CAR has done a solid job of shutting down opposing WRs this season, which is mostly a product of teams being able to run on CAR – the 56 pass attempts against CAR is 3rd-lowest in the NFL. That said, CAR CB Chris Gamble(notes) could give DAL WR Roy Williams problems. Expect DAL to heavily attack in the passing game via TEs Jason Witten(notes) and Martellus Bennett(notes). CAR has been brutal in its ability to hold down TEs for going on four straight years.