NFL Skinny: Week 12 preview

What to watch for: With big-time injuries on the defensive side of the ball for GB, this could have been a big opportunity for DET QB Matthew Stafford(notes) and WR Calvin Johnson(notes) on the national stage. Alas, both players look unlikely to play because of their own injuries. RB Kevin Smith(notes) will be the show for the Lions, and probably not a very good one against a GB defense that allows the 3rd-fewest FAN PTS to RBs. A DET offense led by QBs Daunte Culpepper(notes) and Drew Stanton(notes), also without the services of MegaTron, managed just 149 total yards in a 26-0 loss to GB in Week 6.

GB is 7th in the league in offensive yards per game (378). DET has allowed the 2nd-most YPG on defense (392). “Green” Bay, indeed. Start ‘em all.

DAL finally went with a run-heavy approach last week without the expected successful results that many would have expected for a team that is 2nd in the NFL with an average of 5.0 YPC (it churned out 4.6 YPC on 33 totes last week vs. WAS). With 1 TD against the Redskins in Week 11, DAL has now scored just seven points in each of the past two weeks. I’d expect the team to keep the foot on the gas with the ground game despite the lackluster scoreboard performance in Week 11 considering that OAK allows the 3rd-most FAN PTS to opposing backfields and does a good job overall in pass defense – in addition to RB Marion Barber(notes) being a strong play, I’m also very intrigued by RB Felix Jones(notes) this week and it’s the first time in a long time I’d give him strong starting consideration. QB Tony Romo(notes) has a sore back, the DAL aerial personnel have been inconsistent as a whole in general and OAK CB Nnamdi Asomugha(notes) is coming to town. You can describe the fantasy prospects of the Cowboys’ passing attack this week with a Coldplay lyric: “Yeah, they were all yellow” – it should be noted that TE Jason Witten(notes) is a game-time decision, and considering his consistently modest week-to-week fantasy production, I’d skip him this Thursday.

DEN is not an offense to believe in right now – the Broncos are averaging 9.25 PPG over their past four games. I’m playing WR Brandon Marshall(notes) because he’s still managed to top 100 yards in two of the past three games during this drought. Other than Marshall, I might consider RB Knowshon Moreno(notes) coming off a 10/80 line last week. The NYG have shutdown RBs in the passing game this season and that leads me to prefer Moreno over favored passing-down RB Correll Buckhalter(notes). But neither have much shine to them this week.

QB Matt Ryan(notes) got back on track with 268 yards and 2 TDs at NYG in Week 11. More importantly, he didn’t throw a pick, his first INT-free game since Week 3. He also shook the tunnel vision talk by completing 3+ passes to six different receivers. Feel free to roll with Ryan and the rest of the ATL biggies (RB Jason Snelling(notes), WR Roddy White(notes), TE Tony Gonzalez(notes)) against a TB defense that has allowed the 6th-most total yards in the league.

It would be really hard to bench Terrell Owens(notes) coming off a 9/197/1 performance, especially when he’s meeting up with a MIA defense that allows more yards per catch (13.8) than any team in the league. Both Owens and WR Lee Evans(notes) had a respectable 60 receiving yards in the last meeting with MIA. With MIA NT Jason Ferguson(notes) (quad) out for the year, there might be a little more opportunity on the ground against MIA than usual. I’m guessing that RB Fred Jackson(notes) will get to take most advantage of the Dolphins’ loss this week, as RB Marshawn Lynch(notes) is dealing with a sore shoulder suffered last week which should, at the least, curb his participation.

CLE allows an NFL-high 402 yards per game. All the usual CIN suspects look good this week, the only question is whether RB Cedric Benson(notes) tries to make it back from his hip injury. Backup RB Bernard Scott(notes) showed last week at OAK (151 YFS) that he’s a worthy replacement if Benson can’t go – I’m going on the assumption that Benson ultimately is ruled out come Sunday.

QB Matt Schaub(notes) passed for 311 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs in the Week 9 meeting with the Colts and I see a similar type of performance this time around. Without TE Owen Daniels(notes) and because RB Steve Slaton’s(notes) touches have been limited due to fumbling issues, among other things, Schaub just doesn’t have as many playmakers at his disposal as he did earlier in the season and throughout last year. Put Schaub down as a low-end QB1 this week. WR Andre Johnson(notes) had a 10/103 line against IND in Week 9, and he’s an unquestioned play this week. And I think you can roll with Slaton as a RB2 despite his limited carries. The team has made up for the lack of work on the ground by making a specific point to target him in the passing game, and no RB has produced as many receiving fantasy points (368 yards, 4 TDs) as Slaton – he also has 7 TDs in his past seven games.

Brett Favre(notes) for MVP? Maybe. Favre against a CHI defense that has allowed 12 TD passes in its past five games? Absolutely. Start the usual suspects here and even consider WR Bernard Berrian(notes), who seemingly relished his two opportunities against his former club last season (combined 10/203/2 line).

WAS has one of the best defenses in the league and this matchup won’t be a walk in the park for any of the PHI skill position assets. In the Eagles’ 27-17 victory at WAS in Week 7, WR DeSean Jackson(notes) touched the ball just three times but delivered 2 TDs of 57+ yards. If you’re looking for an excuse to play him, there you go. Everyone else in that matchup was mediocre at best and I’m inclined to look at the rest of them through yellow-colored glasses once again. I should mention that WAS has allowed a RB to gain at least 97 rushing yards in three straight games, so RB LeSean McCoy(notes) has a shot to be a tick above average but you can’t count on head coach Andy Reid feeding him the ball consistently.

STL had been making strides in the passing game the past couple weeks, but with QB Marc Bulger’s(notes) season potentially over because of a broken tibia, optimism is fading fast. RB Steven Jackson is the only no-brainer for the Rams this week. And WR Donnie Avery(notes), against a SEA defense allowing the 3rd-most FAN PTS to WRs, isn’t the most unconscionable reach. Rookie WR Brandon Gibson(notes) was targeted 17 times in Week 11, but caught just 5 passes as the chemistry with Bulger was way off, not to mention that Gibson made a ton of mistakes and emerged from nearly every broken up pass play looking for a flag like a true veteran prima donna wideout. Maybe he’ll have better chemistry with his former 2nd-team mate QB Kyle Boller(notes), but that’s a very iffy proposition – especially considering the tenuous health of the Rams OL this week.

To be honest, and brief, I wouldn’t want to play anyone but RB Chris Johnson for TEN this week. ARI has good speed on defense and I don’t think QB Vince Young(notes) will get much more than 25-40 rushing yards out of this one. And if that’s the case, his standard 150 passing yards and 1 TD pass doesn’t really elevate him into starter consideration.

All the key fantasy elements of the Chargers offense were at least serviceable in the last meeting with KC and you should feel confident rolling them all out there again this time around. Backup RB Darren Sproles(notes) also chipped in 99 YFS and a TD in that contest, and there might be garbage time production to be had again this week. Also, consider that KC has allowed a league-high 13 pass plays of 40+ yards, and then take note that WR Malcom Floyd(notes) has logged 3 receptions of 40+ yards. I like his splash potential this week.

QB Joe Flacco(notes) has been an awful fantasy option for several weeks and really the BAL offense has devolved into a whole lot of RB Ray Rice(notes) and WR Derrick Mason(notes). And against an across-the-board standout defense like PIT, those two are where you would expect the emphasis of the offense to be. For both teams, the fruitful fantasy options are few and far between.

NO averages 37 PPG, tops in the league. NE has been a pretty good fantasy defense against the opposing skill positions, but you kind of throw that out the window in a Monday night game of this magnitude. Count on QB Drew Brees(notes) showing up with his usual masterful 300+ yard performance. But I think he’ll be spreading the wealth fairly evenly in this one, keeping the Pats defense guessing as much as possible. That makes WR Marques Colston(notes) and TE Jeremy Shockey(notes) a bit tricky, but I’d gamble that the sure-handed Colston gets ample opportunities in this one – opposing go-to WRs have generally faired well against NE this season. NE does allow 4.4 YPC, and the threat of Brees should keep RB Pierre Thomas(notes) in business. But I might not gamble on RBs Reggie Bush(notes) or Mike Bell(notes) given the uncertainty of Bush’s health and the role he’ll play this week. NE has only allowed 1 pass play of 40+ yards, but if you want to roll the dice on big-play specialist (and recent red zone specialist) WR Robert Meachem(notes) scoring for the 4th straight game, I’m not going to give you grief.