NFL Skinny: Week 11 preview

What to watch for: MIA and CAR employ two of the most successful platoon backfields in the league, and both teams rank among the top three in the league in rushing attempts per game. MIA will be without lead fish RB Ronnie Brown(notes) this Thursday, however, as a foot injury will keep him sidelined at least this week and possibly beyond. “Backup” RB Ricky Williams(notes) blazed a trail in Brown’s absence, handling 9 carries for 53 yards in the 4th quarter after Brown went down against TB last week – 27 of those yards, though, came on the final carry that set up the Dolphins’ game-winning field goal. Needless to say, Williams is a must-start against a Panthers defense that is allowing a healthy 4.6 YPC – ATL RB Michael Turner(notes) needed just 9 carries to rush for 111 yards against the Panthers last week. MIA has said Williams could handle some of Brown’s wildcat duties this week, but I’d expect rookie QB Pat White(notes) to also get more snaps in that role. And FB Lousaka Polite(notes) could be a vulture threat around the goal line with Brown out. None of Williams’ 6 TDs have come from inside the 4-yard line, while five of Brown’s TDs have. Polite has been a stud in short-distance conversion attempts this season and the possibility that he’ll poach a TD is strong. Per usual, forget about the passing game. With 32 QBs in action this week, there’s no way I can argue QB Chad Henne(notes) into the top 16. And if you are in a pinch at WR, Davone Bess(notes) is your best bet, albeit not a good one against a CAR defense allowing the 3rd-fewest FAN PPG to WRs. Bess, however, has seen an average of 8 targets the past four games. TE Anthony Fasano(notes) could sit (hip), and this is another situation to avoid.

Like MIA, you can count on CAR to pound the rock on the ground. RB DeAngelo Williams(notes) was said to be dealing with a “tweaked knee” last week, but he still came through with 19 carries for 92 yards vs. ATL. “Backup” Jonathan Stewart(notes) also contributed in a big way once again with 11 carries for 82 yards and 2 TDs. Both will face a stiffer test than usual this week against a MIA defense allowing just 3.7 YPC, especially without the services of OT Jordan Gross(notes) (out for the year). As the top cat in the backfield, you don’t consider benching Williams, but I’d be a little leery about Stewart with the likelihood that he gets 6-8 fewer touches than Williams. Color Stewart chartreuse this week. MIA has allowed 9 pass plays of 40+ yards (3rd-most in the NFL) and a league-high 14 yards per catch. QB Jake Delhomme(notes), who threw 2 TDs to WR Steve Smith last week, should have some play-action opportunities with Smith this week. Smith didn’t catch a 40-yard pass last week, but that ended a three-game streak in which he had. Because of his use around the goal line (both TDs were from inside the 5-yard line last week) and the deep-ball issues of the MIA secondary, Smith is someone to have in your lineup this week. Delhomme, however, barely ranks inside my top 25 QB rankings this week – it’s just the nature of the offense and his own proclivity for blunders. No CAR No. 2 WR, and only 1 TE, has topped 10 FAN PTS in a game this season. You can’t make a living mining the outer regions of this offense.

Where have you gone, Joe Flacco(notes)? The BAL QB has finished with less than 200 passing yards in each of the past three games and has just 1 TD pass in that span. He hasn’t attempted a lot of passes during that stretch, but fantasy owners can only worry about the bottom line, and he’s simply not delivering. That said, he might pick things up a bit this week. True, IND has allowed the 6th-fewest FAN PPG to QBs, but its secondary is decimated by injuries, a situation that was exploited by QBs Matt Schaub(notes) and Tom Brady(notes) the past two weeks (combined 85 pass attempts, 686 passing yards and 4 TD passes). IND has been decent against RBs in fantasy of late but, to be honest, you haven’t really lost money by starting a RB against the Colts the past 4 games (Steven Jackson, Frank Gore(notes), Steve Slaton(notes), Ryan Moats(notes), Laurence Maroney(notes) and Kevin Faulk(notes) were all serviceable plays in that span). Of course, this is my usual long-winded way of stating the obvious – Ray Rice(notes) is a solid-gold (green) play. Like a groundhog, Backup RB Willis McGahee(notes) emerged from his hole last week to handle 13 carries. He apparently saw his shadow, however, gaining just 35 yards, and it’s likely he won’t be seen much again at least until a Week 14 matchup with DET. WR Derrick Mason(notes) was the only WR to catch a pass against CLE on Monday night, and he’s the only WR you can consider for BAL in this one. IND allows the fewest pass plays of 20+ yards (16), and if not for catching the occasional deep ball, WRs Mark Clayton(notes) and Kelley Washington(notes) are pretty much useless to fantasy owners. Mason had 70 yards in his matchup with IND last season and I’d bet he has at least that many yards this week. No team allows less FAN PPG to TEs than IND, and you really have to have a favorable matchup to play TE Todd Heap(notes) considering his middling production to-date. Take a pass.

DAL ranks 2nd in the league with 5.1 YPC on offense. That could be very problematic for a WAS defense that could very well be without DT Albert Haynesworth(notes) (ankle) this Sunday. Sans the league’s premier run stuffer, expect DAL to pound away between the tackles, assuming RB Marion Barber’s(notes) sore thumb doesn’t give him issues like it did last week. The injury and game plan in Week 10 afforded Barber just 5 carries, and he’s just No. 43 among RBs in FAN PPG over the past five weeks, so regardless of Haynesworth’s status, don’t go thinking Barber is a slam dunk. That the Cowboys backfield ranks just 14th in FAN PPG despite it’s per carry success is beyond me. It’s a shame that such fertile real estate is a muddled mess. QB Tony Romo(notes) is averaging 297 passing yards and has thrown 7 TD passes the past two times he’s faced WAS at home. He’s riding a seven-game streak in which he’s thrown for at least 250 passing yards, and he has an 8:2 TD-to-INT ratio in his past four contests. That said, WAS has been brutal on QBs in fantasy (only the Jets have been tougher) and, while I think Romo will perform much better than the average QB has against the ‘Skins this season, I have Romo down towards the bottom of my startable QBs for Week 12. In Week 10, WR Miles Austin(notes) finally touched terra firma (4/20/0) after a gradual descent from his 10/250/2 performance at KC in Week 5. In fact, in the past 3 games, WR Roy Williams has been the better fantasy player. Considering the matchup, I’ve got a yellow-colored view of both players – willing to concede that one of them could do well, but also confident that one will leave you wanting. Frankly, I don’t own either player, and this is a week where I’m thankful of that. TE Jason Witten(notes) has just 4 red zone targets this season and ranks just 14th among TE in FAN PPG. He’s never been a great red zone TE, and the matchup is also tough for him this week. It is fine to roll him out there this week, but purge any lingering thoughts that he’s a weekly “must” play. He’s far from it at this point.

At least DET knows how to lose in a fantasy-friendly way. Despite averaging just 15.9 PPG, there’s potential in this offense, especially this week against a CLE defense allowing 25 PPG. The Browns are particularly inept at stopping the run and they have allowed the 2nd-most FAN PPG to RBs. RB Kevin Smith(notes) has looked a little lifeless in recent weeks, but he actually had some productive runs in the first half last week against a stout MIN run defense. I’d be willing to bet that Smith gets back on track this week with a TD, a 100-yard game, or both. WR Calvin Johnson(notes) had 8 catches for 84 yards last week, an excellent sign that his knee is feeling better. You don’t sit him when he’s healthy, and I’d write him into the lineup this week. Opponents don’t generally throw a lot against CLE because CLE doesn’t put scoreboard pressure on the opposition and teams can generally get the job done against them on the ground. So don’t look for much more than Johnson to standout in the DET passing game.

QB Aaron Rodgers(notes) is the No. 1 fantasy QB at the moment, and there is nothing with this matchup to suggest he won’t continue posting elite numbers. In fact, SF allows the fewest YPC (3.3) and has one of the most anemic pass rushes in the league (17 sacks), so Rodgers may be asked to throw it often at the expense of RB Ryan Grant. That said, Grant has delivered at least 8 fantasy points in all but one game and he’s the No. 15 RB in terms of FAN PPG, and he’s delivered in a few tough spots this season. So, it’s not completely insane if you decide to use him this week. Among GB WRs, Donald Driver(notes) has been as consistent as the tides this year (No. 14 fantasy WR) and he’s a viable play this week, but I like Greg Jennings(notes) better given the 49ers’ propensity for giving up the deep ball (7th-most pass plays of 20+ yards allowed) and its inability to get after the QB – Rodgers should have the pocket time needed to let Jennings shake free downfield. It looks like TE Jermichael Finley(notes) could return from a sprained knee this week. SF has allowed the 3rd-most YPG to TEs over the past 5 weeks, so put Finley down as a sleeper if he’s cleared to play.

QB David Garrard(notes) has averaged 301 passing yards, 31 rushing yards and has thrown 6 TD passes in four home games this season. That helps offset the concerns of facing a BUF defense that has allowed the 4th-fewest FAN PPG to QBs. Yes, the team has faced some dogs at the signal-caller position in recent weeks, but you still have to be impressed with the fact that the Bills have yielded just 2 TD passes in their past seven games (and there was a Drew Brees(notes) and Matt Schaub in that mix). Garrard should be able to throw for serviceable yardage and I’m guessing he’ll net the equivalent of a TD pass be it by actually throwing for a score or rushing for 30+ yards. RB Maurice Jones-Drew(notes) is the No. 2 fantasy RB and he faces the most generous defense in fantasy to opposing RBs. No need to say more … well, I’ll just say that backup RB Rashard Jennings could also get invited to the party with 6-8 touches in an expected run heavy approach by JAC. BUF hasn’t allowed a WR to top 10 FAN PTS since Randy Moss(notes) did it in Week 1. The suppressed group of opposing WRs include Andre Johnson(notes), Steve Smith (Car), Marques Colston(notes) and Braylon Edwards(notes). WR Mike Sims-Walker(notes) has delivered in all but one week he’s played, but he’s a cautionary play this week because of what BUF has been able to do in pass defense – and because opponents average 34 rushing attempts per game. TE Marcedes Lewis(notes) had 58 yards on 2 catches last week and he’s a serviceable option, if not a top 12 TE play, against a BUF defense that has been mediocre against the position in fantasy.

WR Dwayne Bowe(notes) is out for the next four weeks because he was taking diuretics that were on the NFL’s banned substance list. He’s now worth drop consideration as he won’t be able to help fantasy teams until Week 15. In his wake, WRs Chris Chambers(notes) and Lance Long(notes), among others, will try to pick up the slack. Frankly, the group is uninspiring, especially against PIT this week. It’s hard to buy into Chambers as a go-to guy, but he’s caught 6 of 9 targets from QB Matt Cassel(notes) in his first two games as a Chief, combining for 130 yards and 2 TDs. Of the entire Chiefs aerial attack, Chambers is the only one worth even remotely considering. RB Jamaal Charles(notes) has performed as I expected he would as the KC lead back, and he topped 100 yards and found pay dirt last week in OAK. But he’s facing fantasy’s toughest defense for opposing RBs this week. He’s flying under a fantasy flag that’s a red as the helmet on his head this week. Same goes for his teammates.

SEA has some skilled defensive players and it has been respectable in spots, but those spots have all been at home. On the road, it is a disaster, having allowed an average of 31.5 points in four contests away from Seattle. I’m bullish about the MIN skill position players this week, save WR Bernard Berrian(notes), who is still not all the way back from his hamstring injury, and TE Visanthe Shiancoe(notes), who I have just lukewarm feeling for given the Seahawks’ solid linebacker crew.

The Giants have focused in recent weeks on giving RB Brandon Jacobs(notes) the type of power running plays that best suit his style. The result has been a YPC average north of 5.0 in his past four games. Jacobs getting on track on the ground spells trouble for an ATL defense allowing 4.6 YPC, especially with Jacobs fresh coming off a bye. Backup RB Ahmad Bradshaw(notes) sat out Monday’s practice as his problematic foot injury still lingers. With Bradshaw still limited, Jacobs should be good for 20+ totes and something in the neighborhood of 90-100 yards and a TD. The bye week was especially welcome relief for QB Eli Manning(notes), who has been dealing with a plantar fascia injury. He claims the off week has made the foot a non-issue and, if true, he has a nice opportunity this week against an ATL defense that has allowed the most pass plays of 20+ yards – Manning is 8th among QBs in pass plays of 20+ yards. WRs Mario Manningham(notes) and Hakeem Nicks(notes) have been the “big play” receivers but with both healthy, they can cannibalize each other’s stats. I have both listed below as cautionary plays, but consider both of them as chartreuse options with the possibility that one of them really goes off. WR Steve Smith has been Manning’s most steady hand and the No. 8 fantasy wideout is a definite play. TE Kevin Boss(notes), who has scored in two straight, is also a justifiable option against an ATL defense that has allowed the 4th-most FAN PPG to the position.

The knee injury that has kept NO DT Sedrick Ellis(notes) out of action of late has really made a mark on the Saints’ run defense. The team has allowed 36% more fantasy production to opposing backfields than the league average over the past five weeks. Over the past four games, three backs have topped the 100-yard mark on the ground and RBs have accounted for 8 rushing TDs. This is good news for RB Carnell Williams(notes), who has maintained the lead role in the backfield platoon with RB Derrick Ward(notes), touching the rock at least 13 times in eight of nine contests. With his usual 13-16 touches, Williams should post low-end, green-light worthy numbers. That QB Josh Freeman(notes) has played the part of a viable passing threat only helps, and NO could have to pay even more attention to the pass than usual if shutdown CB Jabari Greer(notes) and/or FS Darren Sharper(notes) miss another game with injury after both sat last week – and CB Tracy Porter(notes) has already been ruled out this week with a knee injury. WR Maurice Stovall(notes) has been Freeman’s favorite target, but the WR group lacks upside unless Antonio Bryant(notes) plays – he’ll be a question mark once again this week. TE Kellen Winslow(notes) has been far and away Freeman’s preferred target and, although NO has yet to allow a TD to a TE, you can’t sit Junior at the moment.

At 11.1 PPG, STL has the 3rd-worst offense in the league. Outside of RB Steven Jackson, there are no guarantees. WR Donnie Avery(notes) is getting closer, as he’s scored 4 TDs in his past five games, including 2 TDs last week. Avery was handled by ARI in two meetings last season (combined 5/44), but Avery is still worth running out there against an ARI secondary that has allowed the 7th-most FAN PPG to WRs in ’09. STL lost WR Keenan Burton(notes) for the season to a knee injury last week. Rookie 6th-round pick Brandon Gibson(notes) filled in with 7 catches for 93 yards, but he’s too much of an unknown to gamble on in this offense unless it’s a very deep league. The sleeper for STL could be TE Daniel Fells(notes) who sits just outside the top 20 TEs this season in terms of FAN PTS. He has a TD and a 43.5 YPG average over the past two games and ARI has given up a ton of production to the TE position.

The DEN offense has hit the skids, as the team has averaged just north of 11 points during its current three-game slide. QB Kyle Orton(notes) is dealing with an ankle injury that has his availability for Sunday in question. Backup QB Chris Simms(notes) looked terrible in relief of Orton last Sunday and against a SDG defense that has been tough on both the QB and WR positions, only the extreme talents of WR Brandon Marshall(notes) are worth gambling on. DEN should try to go ground heavy as it did at SDG in Week 6 (33 rushes). RB Knowshon Moreno(notes) took back the lead backfield role last week and nearly reached 100 rushing yards (97) for the first time in his career. But he managed just 2.4 yards on 18 carries against the Chargers in the previous meeting and the SDG speed on defense has been strong at limiting the quicker type backs. RB Correll Buckhalter(notes), who offers more of a power approach, could be the more successful back (as he was last time) as the Chargers have been bullied by more powerful RBs. That said, I’d consider both backs cautiously this week. A DEN TE hasn’t scored more than 3 FAN PTS in any of the past three games, but TE Tony Scheffler(notes) is a notorious Charger killer (6 of his 14 career TDs have come against SDG) and this is one history card I’d probably play this week.

You’re going to start QB Tom Brady and WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker(notes) every week unless you have an absolutely loaded roster. That said, Moss owners should be concerned about NYJ CB Darrelle Revis(notes). Moss has been held to under 30 receiving yards in each of his past three meetings with the Jets. I’ll have Moss among my top 20 WRs this week, but not my top 10. RB Laurence Maroney shared the backfield workload with RB Kevin Faulk last week but found pay dirt for the 4th consecutive week. I’d expect Maroney to regain the lion’s share of the backfield work this week and he’d be the one other Pats player besides Brady, Moss and Welker that I’d role with this week.

Justin Fargas(notes), Darren McFadden(notes), Michael Bush(notes)? Who knows. JaMarcus Russell(notes), Bruce Gradkowski(notes)? Who cares. Consider TE Zach Miller, but only in leagues of 12 teams or more.

No QB has thrown more INTs (12) than Jay Cutler the past five weeks. Cutler has also been sacked 11 times in that span, and both developments are ominous considering that PHI ranks 3rd in the league in INTS (15) and 2nd in sacks (29). The volatility factor is too high for Cutler this week, but I’d be willing to keep rolling the dice on WR Devin Hester(notes), who has caught at least a half dozen passes in five consecutive contests. PHI has been strong in fantasy against WRs, but it could be without CB Sheldon Brown(notes) and S Quintin Demps(notes) this week, and I think that Hester should be at least serviceable and has the potential to break a big one. The attacking style of the PHI defense leaves it extremely vulnerable to TEs and TE Greg Olsen(notes) is a fantastic option this week. RB Matt Forte(notes) has withered in every tough matchup he’s seen this year and this game qualifies – PHI allows just 3.7 YPC. As usual, though, you’re playing Forte in PPR leagues – he’s only a modest play in standard formats.

TEN has improved in pass defense in recent weeks, but the fact remains that through 10 weeks of the season, the Titans have been the most generous in fantasy to the QB and WR positions. QB Matt Schaub threw for 357 yards and 4 TDs in the Week 2 matchup and you’d have to try awfully hard to talk yourself out of rolling with Schaub this week. Same goes for WR Andre Johnson. WR Kevin Walter(notes) went into the break last week following a hopeful 5/67 performance at Indy. But he’s been held to 15 yards or less in his past three meeting with TEN and he’s been held scoreless six consecutive weeks so handle him with care. HOU seems committed to getting RB Steve Slaton back on track, using the bye week as an opportunity to work extensively on Slaton’s ball protection issues. Don’t be surprised if Slaton takes two-thirds of the backfield workload this week, with RB Ryan Moats role diminishing – assuming Slaton doesn’t cough up the ball early in this contest. Consider Slaton as a chartreuse option this week, and a green-light option in PPR leagues. I’m steering clear of Moats this week as I expect HOU to let Slaton have a big opportunity at redemption.