Yahoo! Friends and Family League: Post-draft Q&A
By Brandon Funston, Yahoo! Sports Aug 17, 4:33 pm EDT
Last week, a formidable brain trust of fantasy football experts convened for the sixth annual Y! Friends and Family League draft – the overall mix included fantasy pundits from Yahoo! Sports, FantasyGuru.com, RotoWire.com, RotoExperts.com, ProFootballWeekly.com and NESN.com
This season, for the first time, the league adopted a PPR format (0.75 points per reception), a flex position and a slimmed-down bench (just four spots). The setup produced some interesting in-draft decisions, as backup quarterbacks and tight ends were oft-spurned and receivers were nearly as popular as running backs through the first three rounds.
• Here is a complete list of the Y! Friends and Family League draft results.
After the draft, I asked each participant two specific questions about their draft and also to give their choice for SOD (steal of the draft) and ROD (reach of the draft). And, not to be left out, I had colleague Brad Evans fire a couple questions my way. Before we look at what each league member had to say, let me first offer this disclaimer:
Ignore this column at your own risk. Last year, doing so would have meant you missed out on these nuggets of wisdom:
• “DeAngelo Williams(notes) (Pick 78) could yield a titanic profit … if the Carolina line continues to open up mammoth holes, he’ll post surprising totals.”
• “DeAngelo Williams may be undersized but he had some great games last season and I expect him to be very focused on saving his career this season.”
• “… frankly, although I understand he’s a rookie and he’s going to make mistakes, I think (Matt) Ryan has a chance to be the next great quarterback of this league.”
• “I’d say the reach of the draft was Jerricho Cotchery(notes) in the fifth, over guys like Brandon Marshall(notes) and Calvin Johnson(notes). I understand the Favre factor helps his YAC and big-play potential, but let’s be real here: it’s not going to be easy for Favre to assimilate in this new offense. It’s basically like an adult learning a new language. I took three years of French in high school and remember about four words.”
• “The Bears surely will lean on Forte as their short-yardage and goal-line back. I won’t be surprised at all if he’s the best of the rookie crop in 2008.”
Of course, there are two sides to every opinion, so you may have to watch out for the occasional misfire, like the following:
• “As for the ROD, I’ll go Matt Forte(notes) at pick 37. I admit this might be a dumb choice of me because Pianowski made the pick and he is rarely wrong. That said, fellow rookies Jonathan Stewart(notes) and (Rashard) Mendenhall were both available, and I have them significantly higher than Forte on my draft board.”
• “I wouldn’t have taken Chris Johnson in the seventh round. He is not going to get enough quality touches on a consistent basis and will likely never see a heavy workload either because of his size and frame.”
Alright, with that, I give you the experts, in their own words …
MEET THE FAMILY
Yahoo! Sports Fantasy – Brandon Funston (Previous F&F finishes: 2nd in ’08; 2nd in ’07; 11th in ’06; 2nd in ’05; 6th in ’04)
Q: You invested a mid-first round pick in LT, but were unable to handcuff Darren Sproles(notes). How confident are you in Tomlinson’s durability given his advanced age? Also, how many limbs are you willing to sacrifice to Jeff Erickson to acquire the Pocket Rocket’s services?
A: Not landing Sproles was a shot to the heart, but I’ll blame myself instead of Erickson. I was loathe to take Sproles in the sixth round considering I had just one receiver to that point. I felt I had to get Santana Moss(notes) that round with so few PPR-impactful WRs remaining. So I threw caution to the wind, hoping Sproles would fall another round. Gehlken proved, with his handcuffing of LeSean McCoy(notes) to Brian Westbrook(notes), that Round 6 was the time to pay for the premium RB insurance.
Had I to do it over, I would have passed on a QB (Donovan McNabb(notes)) in Round 5 and taken Kevin Walter(notes), Jerricho Cotchery or Hines Ward(notes) instead. Then I could have gone for Sproles in Round 6 and probably would have went with a Matt (Cassel or Hasselbeck) for my starting QB. If only fantasy football drafts operated like my golf circle, I could use my mulligan. I guess I won’t need one if L.T. holds up. And, on that topic, I’m a big believer that Tomlinson will hold up fine. He’s a workout warrior and he’ll be carrying a chip on his should this season. I have him No. 4 on my Big Board in a default set-up, so I was thrilled to get him at No. 7 in a PPR format.
Q: Instead of chasing a viable third receiver in Round 7 (i.e. Derrick Mason(notes), Steve Breaston(notes), Donald Driver(notes)) you selected a running back firmly entrenched in a three-way time-share? In your estimation, how valuable will Leon Washington(notes) be in a PPR league?
A: Well, I think he’ll have a very good shot to be as valuable as he was last season. With the Jets working on giving him a contract extension and a pay raise, I don’t think they’ll diminish the role he played last season. And in that role, he finished ninth among RBs with 47 receptions. After having lost Sproles in Round 7, my mind was set on solidifying my RB spot with a player with high-upside potential (like Sproles). Washington recorded 636 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns in the final 11 games of last season. That’s the kind of impact I was looking for at pick No. 91 overall.
Q: Who was the SOD (Steal of the Draft) and who was the ROD (Reach of the Draft)?
A: SOD: Frankly, I think one of the biggest steals came early when Scott Engel was able to land Frank Gore(notes) with the No. 17 pick overall. The expectations are that he’ll see a career-high workload, he’s only helped by a PPR format and securing his backup, Glen Coffee(notes), is far from a perilous endeavor – Engel was able to land him with pick No. 152. I also liked how Behrens held off on a QB until Round 9 and still landed Matt Cassel(notes). I also was impressed with Michael Blunda netting Earnest Graham(notes) (the Bucs backfield will not be just the Derrick Ward(notes) show) with pick No. 117. And, finally, Kevin Faulk(notes) in Round 13 was a serious steal for that late. He’s pretty much a 40-plus catch guarantee. He’s the perfect bye-week filler for this league.
ROD: Julius Jones(notes), in the non-goal line portion of a timeshare and unlikely to play a big role in passing situations, seems like a reach. I’d rather role the dice on rookie Donald Brown(notes) or sophomore Felix Jones(notes) there. Also, while I like Matt Schaub’s(notes) potential, paying a Round 5 price for him, ahead of Kurt Warner(notes) and Donovan McNabb, strips him of all of the undervalued beauty he had coming in. Schaub was drafted at a point where he now has to deliver to every bit of his upside potential.
Yahoo! Sports Fantasy – Andy Behrens (Previous F&F finishes: 4th in ’08; 4th in ’07)
Q: You were willing to roll the dice in your backfield, taking three young backs – Knowshon Moreno(notes) (ahead of Ryan Grant(notes), Reggie Bush(notes), Darren McFadden(notes), Larry Johnson(notes)); Ray Rice(notes) (ahead of Jonathan Stewart, Thomas Jones(notes), Joseph Addai(notes)); Bernard Scott(notes) (ahead of Sammy Morris(notes), Kevin Faulk, Fred Taylor(notes)) – with still undefined roles. How confident are you with this RB contingent, and what are your realistic expectations for the group?
A: Well, you neglect to mention that I also drafted Steven Jackson in the first round in a PPR format. I’m in fantastic shape at running back, depending a little on the condition of Knowshon’s MCL (currently sprained). I didn’t seriously consider Grant or LJ in Moreno’s spot – those two are all wrong for the scoring system – but passing on McFadden was tough. I’ve expressed my enthusiasm for him several times throughout the preseason: here, here and even here. He and Moreno are very close in my ranks. That choice really came down to the fact that I wanted to have Moreno in my portfolio somewhere; I already own several shares of McFadden.
Rice was an easy call. He tops the depth chart for the Ravens, he’s had a fantastic offseason and he’s a terrific receiver (33 receptions as a rookie). Also, it was made perfectly clear in draft chat that Rice would not have been available with my next pick. Scott was more of a late-draft flier. You should consider that pick yet another vote of no-confidence in Cedric Benson(notes) – and in the Bengals preseason opener, Scott decisively outplayed C-Ben.
Q: You’ll be starting a long-in-the-tooth Torry Holt(notes) at receiver, and your only WR reserve is unproven second-year wideout Devin Thomas(notes). Are you concerned about your receiving depth? Do you expect Holt to sustain a high level of production and health? What are your hopes for Thomas?
A: This is a 14-team PPR league where we start three receivers and a flex, so I’m happy to have Holt as a WR3. He’s only 33 years old, Funston. You make it sound like I drafted Carl Pickens. Holt had a 90-reception season as recently as ’07, and I’m willing to assign much of the blame for of his ’08 decline to the St. Louis fantasy sinkhole. His knee is a worry, sure, but he didn’t cost much on draft day (R7, P4) and the position was getting thin.
Thomas was simply a late upside pick. He was the second receiver taken in the ’08 NFL Draft and he could easily start for the ‘Skins in Week 1. I’ve also picked up Green Bay’s James Jones(notes), another upside play. It’s going to be difficult to maintain depth at any position in the F&F league this year. We only have four bench spots, and I’m going with a quarterback platoon (Eli Manning(notes) and Matt Cassel).
Q: Who was the SOD (Steal of the Draft) and who was the ROD (Reach of the Draft)?
A: SOD: Hansen managed to score Felix Jones in Round 7, then Evans followed with Rashard Mendenhall(notes). By the end of the year, those backs could both project as second rounders in 2010 drafts. Romig picked up the Raiders’ No. 1 receiver, Chaz Schilens(notes), in Round 13. Schilens is a ridiculously talented athlete, and he seems likely to lead all Oakland WRs in catches this year, for whatever that’s worth.
ROD: Michael Gehlken was just a reachin’ machine. Take your pick: Braylon Edwards(notes) in Round 3, Cedric Benson in Round 5, the Chargers defense in Round 10. I wasn’t interested in any of those choices within 20 picks of where Gehlken grabbed ‘em.
Yahoo! Sports Fantasy – Brad Evans (Previous F&F finishes: 11th in ’08; 14th in ’07; 8th in ’06)
Q: From rounds 5-8, you took four consecutive RBs, giving you a total of 5 RBs in a league where you can only start a max of three. At the expense of landing a more proven No. 3 WR or No. 1 TE, why did you feel it necessary to go so heavy at RB when you did?
A: Because Marshawn Lynch(notes) still thinks Wild West rules apply in regards to recreational weapons use, depth at RB was a top priority to adequately fill the three-week void. Frankly, the Rashard Mendenhall selection in Round 7 was done completely out of lust, a silly move when reputable No. 3s Torry Holt, Donnie Avery(notes), Derrick Mason and Steve Breaston were still available, along with Owen Daniels(notes), Chris Cooley(notes) and Kellen Winslow(notes). In retrospect, the Noise wishes he could have squelched his Illini man-crush. The good news: we now have plenty of potential trade chips. Chris Liss and his two-horse backfield (Pierre Thomas(notes) and Larry Johnson) will be targeted no later than Week 3.
Q: To open the season, you’ll likely have to choose between Earl Bennett(notes) and Mark Bradley(notes) for your final starting WR spot. What are your realistic expectations for these two receivers this season?
A: Based on their positive situations, both could emerge as quality WR3s in deeper leagues this season. Bears insiders have glowed about Bennett’s rapid development and rekindled chemistry with former Vandy teammate Jay Cutler(notes). He doesn’t possess blazing speed but could morph into a solid 60-70 catch, 800-yard, 5-7-TD possession receiver. As for Bradley, Matt Cassel’s presence combined with Todd Haley’s pass-first mindset could propel him into the top 40 at WR by year’s end. When healthy, the former Bear played admirably in spurts in Chan Gailey’s spread system last year. His upside parallels Bennett’s. We’re hopeful one will exceed expectation.
Q: This is a league with a very thin bench (4 spots). I understand the notion that you draft with disregard to bye weeks, but you have your kicker, defense and tight end all on bye in Week 4. Sure, you can cut the kicker with little worry, but what are your plans for replacing Brent Celek(notes) and the Philly D in Week 4?
A: Definitely the wait-until-we-reach-that-bridge philosophy will be followed. More than likely, either Earl Bennett or Mark Bradley will be dumped to fill one of the fallow roster spots. However, if both receivers have spectacular starts, it’s very possible the TE and DEF positions will be punted. It’s only one week. With Marshawn Lynch returning Week 4, Tim Hightower(notes), Rashard Mendenhall or Kevin Faulk could also be dealt for FAAB cash to make room. Regardless, Team Noise is ultra-confident the core will pick up the slack if pressured to perform.
Q: Who was the SOD (Steal of the Draft) and who was the ROD (Reach of the Draft)?
A: SOD: Derrick Mason, Round 7, Pick 11. Stolen by the Piano Man (Pianowski), the unretired wideout is arguably the most undervalued receiver in PPR formats. Though touchdowns are a luxury, his sensational 91.5 receptions and 1,062 yards average since ’07 is extremely useful. His 80-1037-5 campaign last season ranked 20th among receivers, one spot behind Vincent Jackson(notes), in this format a season ago. With a year of seasoning under Joe Flacco’s(notes) belt, another effort similar to ’08 seems to be in order.
ROD: Lee Evans(notes), Round 5, Pick 8. Chase left the draft with an undisclosed shoulder injury after reaching awkwardly for PPR pansy Evans. With more formidable options – Lance Moore(notes), Hines Ward, Kevin Walter, Santana Moss – still available, selecting a receiver who’s averaged 58.5 receptions, 933 yards and four TDs over the past two seasons was a bit premature. Last season in the current F&F format, the Bills wideout ranked 29th in total scoring among receivers.
Yahoo! Sports blogger (Shutdown Corner) – Chris Chase (Previous F&F finishes: First year in the F&F)
Q: Your top three running backs (Michael Turner(notes), LenDale White(notes) and Willie Parker(notes)) combined for 14 receptions in ’08. Did you miss the memo that this was a PPR league? Seriously, any concern that your RBs will leave you hanging in the PPR department?
A: Oh, I’m quite concerned about my RB’s pass-catching abilities (or lack thereof). I had no intention of taking Turner, but when he was available at No. 8 instead of one of the four guys I expected to be there—Larry Fitzgerald(notes), Steve Slaton(notes), LaDainian Tomlinson(notes) or Steven Jackson—I went with him. That being said, I’m not at all sold on “The Burner” or the Falcons this year.
As for LenDale, I guess I’m just a big believer in the power of the Patron diet. I took Brady in Round 3 instead of an RB, so when I was up in Round 4 I had to choose between LenDale, Derrick Ward, Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice and Jonathan Stewart. I took the leap of faith that the extra TDs LenDale will be worth will be more beneficial than receptions. As for Willie Parker, I can’t defend that one too much. My key criterion for a third back is getting a guy who is guaranteed to get PT. I seriously considered Donald Brown, but he is too much of a question mark. At least I know Willie will get his carries. (But the fact that I made this decision ensures that Donald Brown will rush for 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns this year. Move him up accordingly on your draft board.)
Q: You drafted Hakeem Nicks(notes) as your No. 3 wideout. That’s a lot of faith for a rookie at a position where the vast majority of the time players need 2-3 years before they start to make an impact. What are your ’09 expectations for Nicks, and do you feel like Patrick Crayton(notes) and Isaac Bruce(notes) have your back should Nicks fail to pan out immediately?
A: My strategy for third wideouts is the opposite of third running backs. I’m OK taking a chance here because if I get burned, I should be able to get a guy off my bench or waivers to replace him. Nicks is a total stretch, but I loved his game at Carolina (I’m an ACC guy, so I’ve seen him play a bunch), even though he’s prone to the dropsies. Eli needs to develop a rapport with some receiver, so why not Nicks? Crayton is my insurance policy; I think he’s due for a solid year with T.O. out of Big D.
Q: Who was the SOD (Steal of the Draft) and who was the ROD (Reach of the Draft)?
A: SOD: I wouldn’t say Behrens “stole” Knowshon Moreno at No. 32, but I think that’s a great pick. In the later rounds, getting Jeremy Shockey(notes) in the Round 13 is pretty good, even though it means you have to have Jeremy Shockey on your team.
ROD: Pierre Thomas at No. 16 overall is probably my ROD, but perhaps that’s because it’s still jarring to see a guy named Pierre drafted so highly. I also thought Eddie Royal(notes) went a bit high.
Yahoo! Sports Fantasy – Scott Pianowski (Previous F&F finishes: 7th in ’08; 5th in ’07; 8th in ’05)
Q: With your top pick, you spurned RBs favorites DeAngelo Williams (No. 1 RB in this point system last season), Chris Johnson (No. 11) and Frank Gore in favor of WR Randy Moss(notes). Were you hell-bent on a WR at No. 11?
A: In a league where PPR matters and three receivers go to post every week, I’m going to think long and hard about a dynamic wideout in the first round. Williams could easily downshift into a 60-40 timeshare with Jonathan Stewart this year, plus he’s had one monster year. Johnson’s another back in a time-share, he’s undersized for the position, and he’s not going to be the goal-line back. I came very close to selecting Gore and I think he’s primed for a huge year, but at the end of the day Moss’s upside called out to me more, given the return of Tom Brady(notes) and the specs of the league.
Q: Considering that it’s a PPR league, you seemingly landed Reggie Bush at a favorable value (No. 39 overall). What kind of numbers do you think are a realistic projection for Bush this season?
A: It’s always a little weird when you pick someone you really don’t like that much and that’s my story with Bush. I’m a Pierre Thomas fan, too. It drives me crazy to watch Bush struggle on inside runs, his tendency to bounce things outside, how he attempts to hit a home run on every play. But the numbers tell the story in our make-believe game and Bush has those pretty 213 catches over 38 games; I just can’t say no to that in a PPR format once we hit the late-third round. I’m asking Reggie to catch 80 passes and score seven times – anything past that is gravy. Playing close to a full season would be nice, too.
Q: Who was the SOD (Steal of the Draft) and who was the ROD (Reach of the Draft)?
A: SOD: Maybe it’s wrong to put the “steal” tag on Ray Rice at the No. 74 slot, but it seems like the entire back end of the draft was slotting him for that pass. Clip and save, America’s sleeper, Ray Rice. Other steals: Drew Brees(notes) at 41 (in a league with short benches, a stud QB has more value), Josh Morgan(notes) at 106 (Crabtree’s too far behind to matter now), Mike Walker(notes) at 139.
ROD: Flip side, I see the upside of Braylon Edwards but he’s not a heavy volume guy, his quarterbacks are sketchy and he’s coming off a train wreck of a season. That doesn’t justify a third-round pick to me. Other reaches: LenDale White at 49 (no catches, backup runner), Chris Wells(notes) at 79 (it’s not going to happen immediately, and in this short-bench league, waiting is a tough thing to do.)
Yahoo! Sports Fantasy’s “Average Joe” – Michael Gehlken (Previous F&F finishes: 8th in ’08; 13th in ’07)
Q: By taking Cedric Benson in Round 5 as your RB2, you are placing a lot of faith in a few big games from Benson down the stretch last season. He seems to be a polarizing back in the fantasy community, with no bigger hater than Andy Behrens, who took Benson’s backup, rookie Bernard Scott, in Round 10. How confident are you that Benson is the real deal, and what are your ’09 expectations?
A: I understand the hatred out there, but you don’t have to love Benson to appreciate his fantasy prospects for this year. As the featured back in Carson Palmer’s(notes) offense, Benson will see far more favorable fronts than he ever saw in Chicago, and despite lacking the “wow” factor, he should get enough carries - including those at the goal line - to put up numbers. No, yards per carry will not be one of them.
To be clear, I’m not at all confident that Benson is the “real deal” as a football player; I wouldn’t touch him in a keeper league with a laser pointer behind tempered glass. I’m just confident in what he can do with this year’s situation. So for this year, my expectations are a ton of carries for around 1,250 total yards and eight touchdowns. Cue the Andy Behrens laugh track.
Q: Only one other team drafted its starting QB later than you did. And, in taking Matt Hasselbeck(notes) as your QB1 in Round 8, you passed over Matt Cassel, who is going two rounds earlier, on average, in Yahoo! live drafts. In general, how do you feel about your Hasselbeck/Ben Roethlisberger(notes) contingent? And what is your rationale for taking Hasselbeck instead of Cassel?
A: I’m almost embarrassed by how much I like Hasselbeck this year. Maybe I’m just losing it, but he seems underrated considering his ability, weapons and current health. You have to be concerned about the offensive line, but if things come together, we’re talking about a guy who’s a year removed from passing for 3,966 yards and 28 touchdowns with a whole lot less. Not taking Cassel there could prove to be regrettable, but I had to follow my gut and invest in Hasselbeck.
As for Roethlisberger, I’m basically banking on a breakthrough from Santonio Holmes(notes) to open up the offense and improve his stats. If that happens and Hasselbeck comes through, I’ll have myself a cheap but productive quarterback duo for the second straight year (Philip Rivers(notes) and Eli Manning in ’08). If not, there is usually at least one top quarterback to emerge from free agency, so it won’t be the end of the world.
Q: Who was the SOD (Steal of the Draft) and who was the ROD (Reach of the Draft)?
A: SOD: The 177th pick is a small price to pay for any team’s No. 1 wide receiver. Even if Chaz Schilens does nothing this season, his combination of talent and opportunity make him a huge bargain in the 13th round for Romig.
ROD: Since I cannot include my own selection as the ROD (should have handcuffed Benson with Scott in Round 10 instead of taking the San Diego defense, which probably would have come back around twice over), I’ll look elsewhere. I don’t think there was a terribly bad reach, but in a PPR league, I’m not a big fan of Brandon Jacobs(notes) at pick 20. Jacobs had only six catches last year, and knee injuries have forced him to miss time in each of the past two seasons.
Yahoo! Sports Fantasy – Matt Romig (Previous F&F finishes: 10th in ’08; 1st in ’07; 10th in ’06; 9th in ’05; 4th in ’04)
Q: In Round 3, you opted for Darren McFadden ahead of Larry Johnson and PPR darlings Reggie Bush and Derrick Ward. What are your expectations for McFadden this season, and are you at all worried about the Raiders offense and/or Michael Bush(notes) infringing on McFadden’s carries?
A: I think you’ll be including McFadden in that list of PPR darlings at this time next year – perhaps at the head of the class. He’ll catch his share of passes out of the backfield and the Raiders will split him out to the slot plenty to give second-year quarterback JaMarcus Russell(notes) another underneath option (he can’t throw to Zach Miller every down). Oakland’s roster isn’t exactly overstocked with proven downfield targets.
As for the other darlings you mentioned, I simply don’t trust Bush and while Ward put up some silly numbers with the Giants, he had perhaps the most enviable setup in the league for a No. 2. He won’t bring anywhere near that entire haul to Tampa Bay. The calendar says we’ve seen the best of Johnson. Which brings us back to McFadden. If you get past the stink of Raider Nation and can set aside durability concerns, you have a guy with breakaway speed and above-average elusiveness. Even if he’s sharing touches with Bush – some early reports say Oakland wants to get McFadden 20-plus touches per game, which sounds like the favorable side of a timeshare – his big-play ability will make up for any workload concerns. Put me down for an optimistic 1,400 total yards and nine touchdowns.
Q: You were the second-to-last team to take a starting tight end (Visanthe Shiancoe(notes)). Was it by design that you’d wait on a tight end? And was Shiancoe a late target you had in mind going in?
A: I didn’t have a specific plan with tight ends other than going into the draft feeling the position is deep enough that even in a 14-team league it isn’t necessary to reach early or get swept into a position run. I swear I’m not a Raider fan – in fact, as a Bay Area resident who gets force fed the Silver and Black on all too many Sundays, you could argue the exact opposite is true – but as the draft progressed I actually targeted Zach Miller as my 2009 F&F tight end. He and JaMarcus Russell were quite a duo last year and even a little growth elevates Miller into the position’s elite. Pianowski grabbed him two picks before I was up in Round 10, so it became a best-available selection when I finally decided to fill the slot in the 12th. Shiancoe is a nice double-threat – a big red-zone target who also gets some downfield looks between the 20s.
Q: Who was the SOD (Steal of the Draft) and who was the ROD (Reach of the Draft)?
A: SOD: You don’t want Jamal Lewis(notes) perched in a starting position on your roster in Week 1, but if you can grab him as your fourth RB in Round 9, you’ve done a nice job building depth at the position. Kudos to Pianowski for taking the plunge. Lewis was sucked into the abyss by Cleveland’s roster-wide regression in 2008, but you still have a guy who doesn’t miss many games, has been a 1,000-yard rusher in seven of eight seasons and is just a year removed from back-to-back nine-TD seasons. Oh wait, he turns 30 in two weeks? Never mind. Jamal Charles was also a nice upside-pick in Round 9.
ROD: Santonio Holmes seems like a reach leading off the fifth round. The only 100-yard game he had in the 2008 season was in the Super Bowl, and that doesn’t pay the fantasy bills (it was just his fifth 100-yard game in the NFL). He’s not targeted enough to get a huge PPR upgrade relative to other wideouts. Seems like the MVP price tag was paid here.
MEET THE FRIENDS
FantasyGuru.com – John Hansen (Previous F&F finishes: 5th in ’08; 9th in ’07; 4th in ’06; 10th in ’05; 1st in ’04)
Q: You took Adrian Peterson with the No. 2 pick overall. In this league’s scoring format, he was the No. 8 RB last season. You also took Clinton Portis(notes) with your second-round pick. How much improvement on last season’s numbers do you envision from Peterson, and do you have any concerns that your two starting RBs won’t bring much to the table in terms of receptions given that this is a PPR format?
A: I went for a knockout blow with Peterson, who is the only back I see with the potential to have a major statistical season. I don’t think too much of the talk of him catching more passes this year, but it does help and might get him 10 more than last year. I am concerned about my two RBs not exactly being PPR gold, which is why I took Wes Welker(notes) and Laveranues Coles(notes) as my first two receivers. I specifically targeted receptions there, and I think I’ll get 180 with those two.
Q: Given that this is a 14-team league with only four bench spots, many teams didn’t draft a backup QB, let alone a backup TE. But, while you didn’t bother buying insurance for Philip Rivers, you did decide to roll with two TEs (Dustin Keller(notes) and Jeremy Shockey). Was that just a product of Shockey falling so low, or was it always your plan to take two tight ends?
A: It was a product of Shockey falling low, and a few days later he went off in his first preseason game. I think he’ll have a good chance to catch 65-70 passes this year, so I viewed him as a nice guy to grab, since I can start a TE as my flex if need be.
Q: Who was the SOD (Steal of the Draft) and who was the ROD (Reach of the Draft)?
A: SOD: Chaz Schilens in Round 13 of a 14-team league was a great value. He’s basically a lock to start, and he should be quite active as a possession receiver for JaMarcus Russell.
ROD: I thought LeSean McCoy in Round 6 was a reach. I understand the upside here, and he’s definitely a player. But if Brian Westbrook is healthy, McCoy’s going to be lucky to get 5-6 touches a game. You need to get more guaranteed production that early in a draft.
RotoWire.com – Chris Liss (Previous F&F finishes: 1st in ’08; 3rd in ’07; 6th in ’06; 1st in ’05)
Q: You have a history for loading up on young, unproven running backs with high upside. This year, though, you drafted just two running backs and seemed to use the same philosophy for receivers instead (the New York Steve Smith, Jeremy Maclin(notes), Robert Meachem(notes), Miles Austin(notes)). Was this a reaction to the PPR setting, or a philosophical switch in general? Also, what are your plans for the bare backfield cupboard, especially in Week 5 when Pierre Thomas, and three other starters, are on bye?
A: I’m not partial to a particular position – I just want players capable of explosive growth. Each round after maybe the first, I just ask myself which player has the best chance of being the difference maker – which one can win me the league if things pan out for him. It turned out that those players happened to be receivers given where I drafted and what fell to me.
As for Week 5, that’s centuries away, and many things will change between now and then, particularly in a league where we’re only allowed four bench players – there will be a lot of turnover on the bottom half of the rosters. Plus, it’s a 14-team league, so people will have to take zeroes or close to it during bye weeks on occasion. I’m more about planning for what could go right than what could go wrong.
Q: You were one of two teams that drafted two tight ends (Greg Olsen(notes) and Kellen Winslow). Is it your plan to start one in your Flex spot? And when did you consider the two TE plan, pre-draft or when Winslow fell to Round 7?
A: It wasn’t a plan. I almost took Winslow, an elite talent at the position, instead of Olsen, and when he was there 26 picks later, I had to take him, at the very least not to let some fool luck into him that late. That Winslow can fill the flex in a PPR is a nice bonus. And I’m not worried about Tampa’s quarterback situation – tight ends don’t require good QBs because they catch such short passes. Tony Gonzalez(notes) was just fine last year with the Chiefs quarterbacks, and actually the tight end is sometimes a crutch for lesser ones who don’t have the timing and reads to connect downfield.
Q: Who was the SOD (Steal of the Draft) and who was the ROD (Reach of the Draft)?
A: SOD: I thought Dalton Del Don got good value on Kevin Smith(notes) in the second half of Round 2 – I almost took him over Pierre Thomas seven picks earlier.
ROD: I thought Rivers in Round 4 was a reach. Great real-life player, but that’s a run-first team, and San Diego’s defense should be a lot better this year, i.e., Rivers will get between 450 and 480 attempts, and will need another eight-plus YPA to earn that draft slot.
RotoWire.com – Jeff Erickson (Previous F&F finishes: 3rd in ’08; 11th in ’07; 11th in ’05)
Q: After taking Maurice Jones-Drew(notes) with the No. 1 overall pick, you followed with four consecutive receivers. Was this a pre-designed strategy? Or did you just not like the RBs available to you at the two turns that followed your top pick?
A: Seeing that it is a PPR league that also requires us to start three receivers, I planned to take WRs at the Round 2-3 turn, unless Kevin Smith or Ronnie Brown(notes) made it back to me. I had a pretty good idea that I would take at least one more receiver with the next set of picks, but yeah, I just liked the value of Holmes at 5.1 better than stabbing at Joseph Addai, Marshawn Lynch or Jonathan Stewart. In retrospect, it didn’t quite work as planned – neither Chris Wells nor Donald Brown made it back to me, though both came close.
Q: Your WR-heavy approach early left you with a bevy of backup RBs vying to fill your RB2 role. You took Darren Sproles in Round 6, ahead of a back like Felix Jones that is assured more playing time to open the season. What are your expectations for your band of backups, and Sproles in particular.
A: Is Felix Jones really assured that much more time than Sproles? The Chargers spent $6 million to make sure that they didn’t lose Sproles, and LT has broken down late in the season each of the last two years. It seems to me that Sproles should get plenty of time. Meanwhile, Jones is great, but he doesn’t just have Marion Barber(notes) to contend with, but also Tashard Choice(notes). I don’t see that third option in SD like I do in Dallas. Arguably, what I should have done was to take both, and wait until my next set of picks to take a quarterback like Matt Cassel or Ben Roethlisberger in the ninth, as Andy Behrens and Michael Gehlken did. But the good news is that running backs will emerge – they always do. I’d rather have the four solid receivers and speculate on running backs. I’ll have to make sure I’m active early on free-agent bidding and hit on one of my speculative bids.
Q: Who was the SOD (Steal of the Draft) and who was the ROD (Reach of the Draft)?
A: SOD: Robert Meachem – Round 12, Pick 2. It’s not too hard to envision a scenario where Lance Moore disappears from whence he came and Meachem takes over. Even as a No. 3 receiver in the Saints prolific offense he could have value.
ROD: LenDale White – Round 4, Pick 7. I’m not buying into the new-and-improved storyline about White. It might seem strange to see me critique a RB selection given my set of backs, but White is in a timeshare, and a declining share at that, and is less valuable in a PPR league than he would be otherwise.
RotoWire.com – Dalton Del Don (Previous F&F finishes: First year in the F&F)
Q: You represented some extreme love for QB Matt Schaub by taking him in Round 5 ahead of Donovan McNabb and Kurt Warner. You also tapped Texans RB Steve Slaton with the No. 6 overall pick ahead of LaDainian Tomlinson and Michael Turner. What are your expectations for these two players? And are you concerned about Schaub being able to maintain his health for a full season or that Houston may decide to giveaway goal-line carries to a back other than Slaton this year?
A: My expectations are quite high for both of these Texans. Round 5 is as early as I’ll ever draft a quarterback, but Schaub has the upside to finish as a top-three option this year. Houston’s defense remains suspect, and his 8.0 YPA mark last year ranked as the second highest in the NFL. To be honest, I wouldn’t even consider McNabb or Warner ahead of Schaub. Sure, his durability is of some concern, but all of his recent injuries were the direct result of illegal hits that were flagged and later fined, not some nagging problems that suggest he’s soft. Also, with such small benches in this format, there will likely be decent options available throughout the year on the wire shall Schaub go down again.
As for Steve Slaton, I admit it’s a fairly risky pick so early, with his ability to carry a full workload and goal-line work both in question. However, Chris Brown is as injury-prone as they come, and Slaton could still reach 10 touchdowns in such a loaded offense even without short-yardage carries. He racked up 916 yards over the final seven games last year – a 2,094-yard pace over a full season. And since this league is basically PPR (0.75 points per catch), there’s no way I was taking Michael Turner over him. The Texans face the NFC West this season – the offense could be the best in the league.
Q: Your No. 3 WR is a bit of a question mark considering Donnie Avery (Round 7) is dealing with a fractured foot and Nate Washington(notes) (Round 9) is in a new situation in Tennessee. You also took Davone Bess(notes) (Round 10). Which receiver are you most excited about given the price you had to pay for them in the draft, and do you have any reservations that this trio will be able to capably fill the No. 3 starting WR spot?
A: I wasn’t thrilled taking Avery, as that injury could linger all season, and he’ll surely get off to a slow start after missing so much practice time while the team installed a new offense. Still, the NFC West is soft defensively, and who else is Marc Bulger(notes) going to throw to? I’m hoping Avery can be a big second-half contributor.
I’m not exactly comfortable with Washington or Bess either, but Washington could lead Tennessee in targets this season, and Kerry Collins(notes) has the arm to hit him downfield, which is Washington’s strength. Bess has to beat out Greg Camarillo(notes) to start, but he looks like the favorite, and with Chad Pennington(notes) lacking arm strength, Bess is a great alternative underneath. He caught 35 balls over the final six weeks last year, so he’s a sleeper in PPR formats. I was most excited about DeSean Jackson(notes) in Round 4 – he could be a beast.
Q: Who was the SOD (Steal of the Draft) and who was the ROD (Reach of the Draft)?
A: SOD: Assuming his leg doesn’t require amputation, Reggie Bush in the late Round 3 of a 14-team league in a PPR format was the steal of the draft.
ROD: As for the reach of the draft, I was absolutely shocked to see LenDale White go in the middle of Round 4.
RotoExperts.com – Scott Engel (Previous F&F finishes: 9th in ’08)
Q: You grabbed Tony Gonzalez in Round 4, ahead of Jason Witten(notes). Are
there any concerns about Gonzalez’s age, his being in a new system
that leans heavily to the run and having to share touches with a
star receiver in Roddy White(notes) and a solid one in Michael
Jenkins(notes)? What are your expectations for Gonzo?
A: I don’t consider Jenkins a solid WR, and Gonzalez becomes another go-to option for Matt Ryan(notes) besides White. A good passing game has more than one quality target, and now Gonzo combines with White to give Ryan a pair of high-echelon pass-catchers. Ryan will often look to Gonzalez on play-action passes and important downs to move the chains. Sharing targets does not concern me, Gonzalez will get his, and a lot of them. This is the one year where he believes he has a shot to go deep into the playoffs maybe for the last time, and he will out-perform everyone at his position.
Q: You scored some quality backs in the first two rounds (Chris Johnson and Frank Gore), but you really only have Willis McGahee(notes) to substitute for bye weeks since your only other back on the roster is Gore’s backup, Glenn Coffee. McGahee seems to have lost his lead role in Baltimore and his health is a bit in question. Do you have concerns about those bye weeks and the general depth of your RB corps?
A: No real concerns. I can make moves during the season to address bye weeks. Ray Rice is just a scatback, and an overrated one at that. McGahee will likely end up sharing touches with him and will perform well enough to justify being a spot player. The fact that Rice is ahead of him on the depth chart could motivate McGahee even more.
Q: Who was the SOD (Steal of the Draft) and who was the ROD (Reach of the Draft)?
A: SOD: Marshawn Lynch could be a real nice bargain in Round 5. He’ll be fired up to play well when he returns from his suspension.
ROD: I thought Sproles went too early, but Schaub was even more of a reach. There were better quarterbacks available, and as much as I can like Schaub, he has never been able to stay healthy. Sproles won’t be able to handle a regular load if Tomlinson goes down.
Pro Football Weekly – Michael Blunda (Previous F&F finishes: First year in the F&F)
Q: You opened your draft with two receivers (Larry Fitzgerald and Greg Jennings(notes)). Was that by design? Did you give consideration to any running backs in the first two rounds?
A: Entering the draft, I was targeting Fitzgerald with the No. 5 pick, but I was going to play my second-round selection by ear. When all the RBs I had my eye on were gone when that pick came along, it was an easy decision to go with Jennings. Sure, I’m gambling with Ryan Grant as my No. 1 RB, but having two stud WRs should benefit me under these PPR rules.
Q: You only drafted two more receivers the rest of the way, meaning you’ll be starting either Kevin Curtis or Nate Burleson(notes), who is 11 months removed from ACL surgery. Are you concerned at all with WR depth? And what are your expectations for the duo of Curtis and Burleson?
A: In retrospect, I probably waited one round too many to grab my third receiver, opting to take TE Owen Daniels in Round 7 over a No. 3 WR. I do think both Curtis and Burleson could be surprise contributors this season, but I’m definitely concerned about my depth. Each guy missed significant time in 2008, and if either one goes down again, I could find myself scouring the waiver wire for marginal wideouts.
Q: Who was the SOD (Steal of the Draft) and who was the ROD (Reach of the Draft)?
A: SOD: Getting QB Matt Cassel in Round 9 was the draft’s biggest steal. Although he’s relatively close to guys like Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer on most draft boards, he went roughly three rounds later than that trio.
ROD: The reach of the draft was WR Laveranues Coles early in Round 5. Even though there were plenty of reliable receivers still available, he rolled the dice on Coles, who has clear bust potential in Cincy.
NESN.com – Michael Salfino (Previous F&F finishes: First year in the F&F)
Q: The New England running back situation is a mystery with four veterans (Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney(notes) and Kevin Faulk) pushing for playing time. All four backs were drafted, but you decided to dive into the pool first, opting for Maroney. What was your rationale for making Maroney the top Patriots RB, and what are your expectations for him in ’09?
A: I’m just scratching the lottery ticket with Maroney. He has so many fleas now that he’s a bargain. I try to never like or dislike a player and instead focus on the price. He’s still young. He’s suffered through no chronic injury that should continue to limit him. He was a very talented college runner who had an auspicious start to his pro career. He’s in a great situation. But really, I’m taking a bunch of guys in those middle/late rounds who I can plausibly say can possibly be impact players. I can see Maroney staying healthy and getting 55 percent of the Patriots carries with eight touchdowns. There’s probably a 40 percent chance of that, but at that stage it was a chance worth taking.
Q: As the man who writes stats-driven columns, you must be well aware of the struggles receivers have making a Year 1 impact. Yet you were willing to take rookie wideouts Percy Harvin(notes) and Michael Crabtree(notes) in the top 10 rounds. What makes you believe these two will be exceptions to the rule?
A: Rookie receivers generally disappoint. But hunting for upside forces us to buck the conventional wisdom, which is fine when it doesn’t cost you a lot. Harvin is having a great camp and is a unique playmaker who can pay dividends in the wildcat and in all kinds of devilish ways in combination with Adrian Peterson. Bernard Berrian(notes) can’t really operate inside the hashmarks. Perfect world, Harvin becomes an explosive playmaker who also moves the chains—like a Steve Smith—early in his career. This early? Unlikely. But, again, the vast majority of guys being picked after No. 100 have even a less direct path to fantasy significance in 2009. It looks bleak for Crabtree with the Niners now, but it’s always darkest before the dawn with these rookie holdouts. If he’s signed by August 25th, he’ll be the Niners No. 1 receiver in short order. After that, I worry.
Q: Who was the SOD (Steal of the Draft) and who was the ROD (Reach of the Draft)?
A: SOD: Kurt Warner was the steal of the draft. It made me sick to take Peyton Manning(notes) in Round 4 and then see Warner sitting there for RotoExperts almost two rounds later. The premium QBs are worth more with the shallow benches we have in this league combined with the size of our active rosters. So you can’t mix and match at the position as I prefer.
ROD: The reach of the draft is tough but Pierre Thomas at No. 16 overall is too high for me in a PPR format. Thomas is very trendy and I rode him hard late in 2008 to some very important fantasy glory. I also have him cheap in a big keeper league. I root for the guy. But how do you pay that price and then turn on the games in Week 1 to seem him standing next to Sean Payton the first series? That’s rough.
