Position Primer: Quarterback

In the NFL, quarterbacks are the faces of the franchise. A select few attract lucrative endorsements, guest host late-night sketch comedy shows and dandle curvaceous swimsuit models. Despite being the occasional target of incensed defender tackles and selfish wide receiver rants, it’s good to be them.

Because signal-callers are typically the winners in media-spun popularity contests, the general perception of them has created two very different schools of fantasy thinking.

On the right are brand-name investors. Their belief: drafting a marquee QB early is a necessity for rolling in championship pay-dirt. According to this group, because elite quarterbacks are kings of consistency, risk is minimized. Rushers are volatile assets. In their view, valuable backs can always be unearthed in the later rounds. Owners who subscribe to this theory typically reach for Peyton Manning(notes) in Round 2 every year.

On the left are followers of the QB countermovement. Instead of shelling out dough for an expensive name, owners stress patience. Essentially, gunslingers are considered fantasy football’s equivalent of closers in baseball. Their motto: “always wait to draft a QB.”

Subscribers to this theory also emphasize that a smaller disparity exists from tier-to-tier at QB compared to other positions. However, unlike previous seasons, last year squashed conventional wisdom. The difference in per game average between top-ranked Drew Brees(notes) and tenth-ranked Donovan McNabb(notes) was 4.6 points. For RBs, the first and tenth-rated players were separated by 3.6 points. For WRs, it was 3.8 points. Without question, due to the increased acceptance of backfield time-shares, workhorse backs are nearly extinct. As a result, the gap between positional tiers has closed. Four short years ago, the No.1 RB outpaced the No. 10 by 8.5 points. Meanwhile, the separation between equally ranked QBs was 4.1.

Which side will have the advantage coming out of drafts this year?

The answer is in the mock. Using ADP values provided by Mock Draft Central, below are three plausible scenarios of what teams would look like after the first six rounds of a standard scoring 12-team draft if they drafted quarterbacks within a specific tier. Group A (below) are owners who aim for the elite, Group B are the second class and Group C are those targeting trendy mid-round sleepers. Season projections (labeled Y!Pro) from our fantasy football mag (On sale now!) are assigned and compiled for each team to decipher which squad would lead the pack heading into the gem-excavating middle rounds. Due to numbers, Tony Romo(notes), Jay Cutler(notes), Carson Palmer(notes) and Ben Roethlisberger(notes) were excluded from the exercise.

Naturally, because several variables exist from league-to-league (i.e. size, scoring system, league IQ, owner philosophy, etc.) this is not a foolproof method, but it does lend insight into the strategies involved when choosing a quarterback in the early-to-mid rounds this season.

Group A – Brees/Brady/Manning

Group B – Warner/Rodgers/Rivers

Group C – McNabb/Ryan/Schaub

Overall here’s how the teams ranked:

1) Group B – Rodgers, 1256.8
2) Group A – Brady, 1246.7
3) Group B – Rivers, 1245.5
4) Group C – Schaub, 1239.5
5) Group C – Ryan, 1227.3
6) Group B – Warner, 1216.3
7) Group A – Brees, 1215.7
8) Group A – Manning, 1202.9
9) Group C – McNabb, 1196.6

As noted above, the discrepancy between the first four teams is rather miniscule but, starting with Ryan, it widens significantly. Interestingly, owners who sank a second round pick in Brees and Manning finished well below those who waited on Rodgers, Rivers and Schaub. Also, the small example confirms picking in the middle may not be the most advantageous position.

Of course, every draft is unique. Owners will snap tendons for man-crushes or abstain from selecting a player due to general distaste. It’s also important to keep in mind the remaining commodities selected could wind up being the true difference makers. But outside the Brady team, this little experiment proves virtual managers who comply with a more QB disciplined approach could be thrust into a favorable position leading into the middle rounds.

So this season, instead of snagging Mr. Reliable Manning late in Round 2, it might be sage to play the “Patience” game – Yaaaaaaaaaa!!!

Here are the risers, fallers and backup ballers at quarterback this season:

Quarterback – Tiers

– Drew Brees; Tom Brady(notes); Peyton Manning

– Kurt Warner(notes); Philip Rivers(notes); Tony Romo; Aaron Rodgers(notes)

– Donovan McNabb; Matt Ryan(notes); Matt Schaub(notes); Carson Palmer; Jay Cutler; Ben Roethlisberger

– Matt Cassel(notes); Matt Hasselbeck(notes); David Garrard(notes); Eli Manning(notes); Brett Favre(notes); Kyle Orton(notes); Trent Edwards(notes)

– Jake Delhomme(notes); Chad Pennington(notes); Jason Campbell(notes); Joe Flacco(notes); Marc Bulger(notes); Kerry Collins(notes)

– Shaun Hill(notes); JaMarcus Russell(notes); Brady Quinn(notes); Matthew Stafford(notes); Mark Sanchez(notes)

Top 5 Quarterbacks – Overall
Andy Behrens		Brad Evans		Brandon Funston
1.) Drew Brees – There are pass-heavy offenses, and then there’s whatever this nonsense is in New Orleans.		1.) Drew Brees – Levels opponents with hurricane force totals: 10 300-yd, 11 multi-TD games in ’08.		1.) Drew Brees – He’s the Steve Nash of the NFL, always able to find the open man in one of NFL’s top fastbreak offenses.
2.) Tom Brady – He’s just one year removed from the greatest fantasy QB season of all-time, and Moss and Welker are still alongside.		2.) Tom Brady – When not procreating, he’s arguably the league’s best; expect 30-35 TDs this year.		2.) Peyton Manning – I put a lot of value in his remarkable 16-game, top-five QB consistency.
3.) Peyton Manning – Durability? Check. Consistency? Check. Exceptional talent? Check. Stellar supporting cast? Yup, that too.		3.) Aaron Rodgers – Statistical ascension magnificent in ’08; finished No. 2 to Brees in PPG.		3.) Tom Brady – A severe ACL injury removed from record-setting ’07, can’t just assume it all comes rushing back at once.
4.) Philip Rivers – He led the NFL in the passing categories that matter most, yet he was criminally underappreciated.		4.) Kurt Warner – Sultan of Stubble has weapons to repeat ’08 desert renaissance.		4.) Philip Rivers – ’08 TD pass leader despite his top two support staffers (LT, Gates) being at less than 100 percent.
5.) Aaron Rodgers – Rodgers finished second to Brees in fantasy PPG thanks to his sneaky ground game (207 rush yards, 4 TD).		5.) Peyton Manning – Consistency king still very viable, but not the true elite of position.		5.) Kurt Warner – Quick release, laser accuracy and up-front protection once again proved lethal, especially with All-Pro level wideouts.

Top 5 Quarterbacks – Overvalued
Andy Behrens		Brad Evans		Brandon Funston
1.) Tony Romo – Nothing against Romo specifically, but if he’s gonna cost me a fourth or fifth round pick, then I’ll just wait for one of the Matts (see below).		1.) Peyton Manning – Last season’s eighth-place PPG finish says he doesn’t deserve RD2 consideration.		1.) Tony Romo – Romo’s great, but don’t like his price given highly suspect receiving corps.
2.) Carson Palmer – Until you read that he has no limitations and the arm strength is entirely back, don’t rank him as a fantasy starter.		2.) Tony Romo – Reportedly doughy and questionable chemistry with WRs makes him avoidable in 40s.		2.) Matt Ryan – Few bigger fans of Ryan than I, but tendency is to rank to his talent upside as opposed to the setup of an offense that leans to the run.
3.) Brett Favre – He’s a solid brand-name, but last year ended disastrously, he’s recovering from arm surgery and he turns 40 in Week 5.		3.) Jay Cutler – The Butcher is skilled with a cleaver, but he’s not a top-ten QB given limited WR options.		3.) Ben Roethlisberger – For my QB1, I need someone who has thrown more than 18 TD passes just once in the past five seasons.
4.) David Garrard – I’m a bit lower on Garrard than my colleagues. He’s never thrown for 20 TDs and I don’t think Torry Holt(notes) gets him there.		4.) Ben Roethlisberger – Super Bowl rings/clutch performances not a category in fantasy; fringe starter in 12-teamers.		4.) Brett Favre – Forget the overinflated importance the media gives his ongoing “Will he or won’t he?” situation, he’s simply way too reckless and inconsistent these days for my tastes.
5.) Kyle Orton – Evans has single-handedly caused him to be overvalued. Check the ranks. The rest of us are sane.		5.) Brett Favre – Hall of Fame name will misguide owners into thinking he’s still trustworthy		5.) Eli Manning – Ignore past positives, he’s never had a receiving corps so lacking in experience and playmakers.

Top 5 Quarterbacks – Undervalued
Andy Behrens		Brad Evans		Brandon Funston
1.) Matt Ryan – If I had any courage, I would have ranked him where I think he can finish the year: as a top-five QB.		1.) Aaron Rodgers – Ground efforts, spread offense and lethal weapons arrow to production growth.		1.) David Garrard – You won’t have to draft him as a starter, but numbers say he is – top 12 in Fan PPG among QBs w/ 10+ starts each of past two years.
2.) Matt Schaub – The Ryan blurb could apply here, too. Schaub is at the controls of a scary attack.		2.) Matt Schaub – Health always a concern but 21.0 PPG average in standard leagues was seventh-best.		2.) Donovan McNabb – Quibble about his health, but production almost always elite, and receiving corps in ’09 should be as good as it’s been in a long time.
3.) Matt Hasselbeck – He’s largely forgotten by drafters, but the offseason reports are encouraging and Housmandzadeh was a huge addition.		3.) Kyle Orton – The 18th QB off the board fits ideally in McDaniels slant-heavy system.		3.) Carson Palmer – He’s still got a golden arm, and the Ochocinco, Coles, Henry support is plenty to work with.
4.) Matt Cassel – Bowe, Bradley and Engram aren’t exactly Moss and Welker, but they’re not too shabby.		4.) Donovan McNabb – Going 20 picks after the second tier; totaled just 1.9 points less than Peyton in ’08.		4.) Matt Hasselbeck – Health reports have been great, and receiving corps has improved/healed dramatically since last season.
5.) Joe Flacco – His rookie season was quietly impressive, and the Ravens are still shopping for receivers.		5.) Matt Hasselbeck – Healthy, determined and with TJ Housh on board, bounce back 22-25-TD campaign possible.		5.) Sixth QB taken in your draft – I don’t see a steep decline between the No. 1 and No. 6 QBs on the draft board. If you get the last of those QBs to come off the board, you scored a sweet deal, most likely.

Top 5 Quarterbacks – Rookies and/or non-guaranteed starters
Andy Behrens		Brad Evans		Brandon Funston
1.) Matthew Stafford – On talent, he gets an edge over Sanchez. And I couldn’t help but notice that he’ll be throwing to Calvin Johnson(notes).		1.) Shaun Hill – Yes, the air-centric Martz is gone, but the former NFL Europer has tools, Crabtree to surprise		1.) Brady Quinn – I fully expect him to be the starter – fronting that there’s a heated QB battle is good for Anderson’s trade value
2.) Shaun Hill – The numbers are always there (think 200 yards and two TDs), but sometimes it’s best not to watch how he gets them.		2.) Brady Quinn – Myoplex pitchman ready to show workouts haven’t been fruitless; 172.7 ypg, 3:3 TD:INT in ’08.		2.) Mark Sanchez – He should start from the get-go, and there’s nice safety net value to work with in TE Heller and dynamic RB Washington.
3.) Brady Quinn – Not so long ago, the Browns offense – thanks in part to great line play – turned Derek Anderson(notes) into an unlikely star.		3.) Dan Orlovsky(notes) – Serviceability last year prove he’s 10 Grossmans – 216..1 ypg, 7:7 TD:INT in 7 GS last year.		3.) Matthew Stafford – Culpepper could take some games early, but Stafford is a loaded talent with, perhaps, the most talented receiver in the league to work with.
4.) Luke McCown(notes) – Someone has to win the QB battle in Tampa Bay, and it’s not likely to be the rookie. The Bucs don’t lack skill position talent.		4.) Matt Leinart(notes) – MMA regimen, renewed commitment to football could finally launch career if Warner is injured.		4.) Josh Freeman(notes) – My guess is that the extremely-confident Freeman winds up with more starts than the others (McCown, Leftwich) – whoever starts in TB is intriguing given presence of Bryant and Winslow.
5.) Sage Rosenfels(notes) – If for some reason the ongoing Favre flirtation ends badly, Rosenfels could deliver a fair impression of a 40-year-old No. 4.		5.) Mark Sanchez – Stafford may have Megatron, but the USC product has better O-line; still no Matt Ryan		5.) Shaun Hill – Yes, team will be much more run focused in ’09, but the fact that Hill averaged as many Fan PPG as Manning last season can’t be ignored.