Let's just say that your league uses a Yahoo! public format, with 10 teams, two starting running backs, three wide receivers, and no flex position. And let's also say that no one is auto-picking, because that can cause all sorts of mayhem.
According to Mock Draft Central's current ADP numbers, if you had the No. 3 overall pick you could very well end up with the above roster. Many of you would have taken either Westbrook or Addai in Round 1, and you'd have taken Braylon Edwards or Laurence Maroney in Round 2. Those are reasonable choices. We're not debating those picks today, however.
The dilemma that's currently on the table is what you should do next, in the eighth round, with the 78th overall selection. (Think of the situation more generally, though. We're discussing a dilemma that can present itself anywhere in the 65-100 range). After selecting Stewart in the seventh, you're not really eyeing another reserve RB with upside right now, even though Rashard Mendenhall (ADP 79.5) and Kevin Smith (77.4) are still available.
You need a quarterback, obviously. But you read Brad Evans' QB Primer immediately before you launched the live draft...
"As seasoned fantasy freaks are well aware, the quarterback position historically is always the deepest. Instead of investing coin in the early-round elites, focus on selecting those primed for breakout/resurgent seasons later on."
...and you were like, "Hey, that's me! I'm totally a seasoned freak!"
You're also acutely aware that the owners who made it to Week 16 in your league last season both started un-drafted QBs in the Super Bowl. Derek Anderson and Kurt Warner dueled; Brady, Romo and Manning were idle.
Maybe you're thinking you should take a fourth wide receiver at pick No. 78. In this league there are 30 starting WRs each week, and another 20-25 sitting on imaginary benches. The free agent pool is never pretty at receiver. So WR it is.
Sure, you could take one of them. But why now? Everyone else already has a QB, and according to the way you've arranged the tiers, there's just not much separating any one of those quarterbacks from the others. You could wait a round and take Cutler. Or you could wait two rounds, then draft Rodgers and Schaub.
Hmm.
The situation at receiver is similar. Anthony Gonzalez (86.0), Vincent Jackson (77.9), Bobby Engram (93.6), Derrick Mason (95.8) and Bernard Berrian (99.5) are all still sitting there, unowned. One of them will definitely be available in Round 9, because only four players will be taken before you're picking again at No. 83.
The clock is ticking. You're toggling between players in your queue. Tough call, this. But then a new thought hits you: Jared Allen is a Viking.
"Minnesota Defense -- A joy to own last season, and the Jared Allen addition makes my mouth water. For the first time in a long time, I'll be reaching for a D."
Yeah...a defense.
Like most experienced fantasy owners, you've been conditioned to believe that no defense should be drafted before the 10th round, ever. That idiot who wrote that utter nonsense about the 2007 Bears has surely been fired. Or reassigned to blogging. You're aware that the fantasy scoring of team defenses is notoriously difficult to predict, and that streaming them based on match-ups is the smart play.
But, of course, this is a competitive private league. There are no fewer than four other owners in your league who stream defenses, and it's not especially easy to get the one(s) you want. And after missing out on Ryan Grant last year, you vowed to never again use a waiver claim on a DEF.
The Vikings were the No. 2 fantasy defense in 2007 (178 points), and they've since added one of the NFL's most feared pass-rushers. They'll get the user-friendly Bears and Lions twice each next season, including match-ups in Weeks 13 and 14. They'll also get the Falcons in Week 16.
With the draft clock at 0:03, you take Minnesota.
You're immediately ridiculed in chat. It's at least two rounds too early, you're told. San Diego is better, you're told. So is New England.
You're told a lot of things, but you let them all slide. You've now drafted elite, top-tier fantasy entities at no fewer than four positions (RB, WR, TE, DEF).
Time to think about Round 9, and whether it's time to get Manning or Cutler. Or maybe that fourth receiver. Or Felix Jones. Or...
Andy Behrens has written for ESPN.com, the Chicago Sports Review, NBA.com, the Chicago Reader and various other publications. In all likelihood, Andy owns more Artis Gilmore memorabilia than you. Send Andy a question or comment for potential use in a future column or webcast. Send Andy a question or comment for potential use in a future column or webcast.