Moving Without the Ball
• For more from Tom Lorenzo, visit RotoExperts.com
Last week we took a look at players who you should buy low on – many of those players already have taken themselves off the market: Danny Granger(notes), Jason Richardson(notes) and Anthony Randolph(notes) to name a few. This week’s exercise we’re going to take a look at players ranked near the top of the heap and separate the fact from the fiction. We’re at the point of the season where we can start to look at trends and determine whether or not certain players are going to sustain their current pace or if they are likely to fall back into that more familiar comfort zone.
For example: Josh Smith(notes) boasts a career 45.7 FG%, yet he’s shooting 58.9 percent from the field through the first eight games. Is it more likely we’ll see him dip below 50 percent by the end of the season or is he capable of shooting in the mid-50’s, keeping his player ranking in the Top 15?
We’ll simplify this process by looking at the players who seem to be ranked a bit higher than many of us expected them to be, based on standard 9-category Yahoo! leagues. Next week we’ll flip the coin and take a look at guys who are ranked well below our off-season expectations. But for now, let’s stay positive and get into some guys who are off to exceptional starts.
Paul Pierce(notes) (SF, BOS) – No. 4 – Pierce is off to a hot start. He’s shooting a career best from the floor (51.5 percent), from the line (86.4 percent), and from beyond the arc (52.8 percent). At the same time, he is attempting a career-low 11.4 FGA and playing the fewest minutes (34.3) since his rookie season. The three-point percentage seems a bit inflated to me, but with defenses no longer focusing solely on doubling-up Pierce, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him shoot somewhere in the 49-52 percent rage from the floor. He’s no longer being asked to go out and create the offense for his team, which is a factor in driving down his attempts. The Celtics have a number of options on offense and that requires defenses to stay honest. The way PP looks now, I would be surprised if he finished the season anywhere outside of the 12-18 range.
Marc Gasol(notes) (C, MEM) – No. 9 – This comes as a surprise to most. Even my colleague, Tommy Landry, one of the more enthusiastic believers in Gasol’s talent, had him ranked No. 66 coming into the season. That seemed a little optimistic at the time with Zach Randolph(notes) (and to a lesser extent Allen Iverson(notes)) now on the Grizzlies. Wasn’t the young core of the Grizz supposed to fall into a deep, dark black hole? Not Gasol; he refused to disappear. In comparing his per-36 numbers from this year to last, nothing much stands out aside from his defensive numbers taking a 0.5 uptick across the steals and blocks categories. Is he simply playing over his head or is this just the natural progression of a young 7-foot stud? Let’s say we split the difference. Gasol has been a bargain, anyway you cut it. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him compete with the likes of Brook Lopez(notes) and Chris Kaman(notes) in the 28-38 range by season’s end.
Josh Smith (SF/PF, ATL) – No. 14 – Smith seems to have taken a vow to stop jacking up threes. Thank you, Mr. Smith, from your fantasy owners all over the world. For his career, Smith is a 27.0 percent three-poont shooter, attempting 1.2 per game. This season he hasn’t attempted a single three-pointer. Does anyone really care that he no longer shoots the three-ball? That’s not why you drafted him in the first place. Smith is getting his jumper fix by attempting 2.6 shots in the 16-23 foot range and making just 24.0 percent of them. We’ll let those slide, just as long as he keeps his FG% above 50.0 percent. Smith is also back in a big way on the defensive side of the ball. He is up to 2.6 blocks and 1.6 steals per game. Smith is not going anywhere anytime soon. I think his value is going to live somewhere in the upper-teens, thanks mostly to his defensive dominance, but also to his reining in of his three-point attempts.
Channing Frye(notes) (PF/C, PHO) – No. 16 – Some things just seem to go perfect together. Maybe an open offense was all Frye needed to bring out the true baller in him. Actually, the Suns have brought out the true Mehmet Okur(notes) in Channing Frye. Right now he is riding a high with his 2.6 threes and 1.2 steals per game. My concern is whether or not he can sustain this pace all season long. Frye has never made more than 0.2 threes or stole more than 0.5 balls in any season. Was it just that he wasn’t being used properly? That’s part of it. I question Frye the most because we have no other season to compare this one to. The 12.3 points and 5.2 rebounds look similar to his rookie season, sure, but he only made three treys on nine attempts as a rookie. In college he was a reliable shooter from 16-20 feet, but never considered a three-point threat. With what evidence we can muster up, I think Frye will trend toward the 45-55 range come season’s end.
Danilo Gallinari(notes) (SF, NYK) – No. 19 – The Rooster is starting to look like he’s here to stay. Of course the first thing you point to are the 3.3 treys per game he’s draining. Gallo is a bulk three-point shooter at 7.3 attempts, though even as he starts shooting more from beyond the arc he’s not that far off from the per-36 numbers he posted as a rookie. In fact, he’s actually shooting worse from the floor and the free-throw line this season. His blocks are up a bit, but his steals per minute are actually down. Gallinari is riding high right now and it’s easy to get excited about his fantasy prospects. There’s no reason to believe that he won’t be able to stay north of 3.0 threes per game. Add to that his scoring efficiency, improved defensive numbers and the confidence of the most fantasy-friendly coach in the game and it’s hard to see Gallinari slipping too far in the ranks.
Joakim Noah(notes) (C, CHI) No. 22 – After taking a look at his per-36 numbers compared to last season’s it looks like Noah is simply a young big who is progressing before our very eyes. He’s been touted as one of the hardest workers in the game. If you’ve watched Noah play this season you can see his hard work starting to pay off. He’s been exceptionally active in the paint and is timing his defensive instincts much better. Last summer I jumped the gun and said he would be the surprise player of the 2008-09 season. Too soon. Now, though, he’s arrived and should remain in the Top 25-35 this season.
Greg Oden(notes) (C, POR) No. 27 – Here’s an instance where I’m not necessarily sold on the player’s current ranking/value. The 10.1 points and 8.7 rebounds aren’t surprising. Neither is the fact that he’s shooting north of 60 percent from the floor. For me it’s the 81.0 free-throw shooting percentage and the fact that he’s blocking 2.2 shots per game, which might not be such good news. I know it sounds a bit crazy, but Oden still hasn’t learned how to play active and aggressive on defense without picking up quick and cheap fouls. In all but three of his first nine games Oden has picked up five fouls, which naturally has limited his minutes to 23 per game. On Wednesday night against the Timberwolves, Oden had the best game of this young season. He had zero personal fouls in 26 minutes (only the second time this season he played more than 25 minutes in a game) with just one block. Wouldn’t you love to get 30 minutes per game out of Oden? I think in order for that to happen there might have to be some give and take. Oden, if healthy, could be a superstar in this league once he truly develops. I think we’re seeing a glimpse of what he can do and expect him to have his ups and downs this season. It’s going to take some more time before I can say that he belongs in the Top 30.
Quick Hits
Jason Thompson(notes) (SF/PF, SAC) No. 30 – What’s not to love here? His offensive numbers have gone up since the injury to Kevin Martin(notes), which seems natural with an extra 20-plus shots to go around. Thompson has a shot to double-double this season, which is exactly what we’re looking for out of our power forward.
Larry Hughes(notes) (SG/SF, NYK) No. 34 – This one I can’t buy into just yet. Not now, seeing that D’Antoni is starting to favor Toney Douglas(notes) and with Nate Robinson(notes) out of the lineup (expected to return Friday, Nov. 13). I could be swayed, especially as he’s playing in New York, but let me see Hughes fit in with Douglas and Robinson first. Erick Dampier(notes) (C, DAL) No. 40 – No. He does this every year. Damps goes on a run and tricks us into thinking he’s a value guy. Consider this past week-plus his “run” for the next month or so. We’ll see him do this again, but not enough to make him a Top 50 or 75 player.
Marreese Speights(notes) (PF/C, PHI) No. 44 – This one I can buy into. Especially with Elton Brand(notes) and Samuel Dalembert(notes) struggling in the Princeton offense. Speights is an efficient big who is proving to be an excellent value guy. Are you convinced that Brand, or at the very least Dalembert will come around? I’ll take my chances on Speights while those guys try and figure out where they fit into the 76ers offense. If at all.
If you’d like to reach Tom you can send him an email at Lorenzo@RotoExperts.com. Or follow his Tweet stream on Twitter: @RotoLorenzo.
Listen to Tom weekly on “RotoRadio: Hoops Edition,” the RotoExperts Fantasy Basketball show on BlogTalkRadio, live on Mondays at 8:00 PM ET.
