Strategy primer: Roto vs. head-to-head

We’ve got just under two weeks left before the start of the NBA’s regular season, and the lion’s share of fantasy drafts are going to start taking place this weekend, leading right up through tip-off (Tuesday, October 28). It’s a good time to talk general draft strategy so it will be fresh in your mind on draft day. While all a draft requires you to do is pick a name and push the yellow button when it’s your turn, building a team that challenges for a league title requires a bit more attention to detail.

How you approach your draft should vary at least somewhat based on whether you are in a roto or h2h league. In roto, the basic premise is to construct a team that places well enough across all categories to win the league. In h2h, the basic premise is to construct a team that is strong enough to win weekly matchups more often than not, get to the h2h playoffs, and win the league championship. Whether you see the differences as subtle or distinct, there are differences.

Roto Strategy

Balance is the key in roto. Teams with clearly-defined weaknesses typically have a hard time challenging for a league title, because having just one or two points in a single scoring category has to be accounted for across the board. Something of an exception to this rule is in hyper-competitive leagues where the standings from top to bottom are much closer – when points are more evenly distributed (as opposed to concentrated just among the top teams) it can be easier to cover for a substantial one-category deficiency. Domination of the majority of the league’s categories usually does the trick, as well.

How do you achieve this balance? Draft the best available players – the players with the largest positive across-the-board fantasy impact – into the middle rounds. Place more emphasis on complementing your team’s ever-changing strengths and weaknesses than filling specific positions (but obviously don’t do something like draft SF-only eligible players with four of your first five picks). Players who are significant detriments to a single category should be given special attention throughout (as in, tread carefully and be sure the negatives don’t outweigh the positives on your roster). Once you get into the heart of the draft, you can start to skew towards positional needs, and in the later rounds address category-specific needs with specialists.

One sometimes overlooked aspect of roto success comes in the form of what I like to call “glue guys.” Players like Jamario Moon, Shane Battier, and Anthony Parker didn’t finish with nine-category cumulative ranks near 50 last season by accident – their steady incremental contributions, coupled with low turnovers, go a long way towards smoothing out the rough edges of a roto team. I like to compare them to middle relievers in fantasy baseball, whose contributions to ratio stat success typically go largely unnoticed.

H2H Strategy

Defining your strengths and building on them is the key in h2h. While glaring weaknesses can cripple a roto team, they aren’t necessarily a problem in h2h – it’s quite the contrary, as highlighting them (punting categories) is a viable strategy. But that’s not to say that you can’t strive for balance, much in the same way you would approach a roto draft – your first few draft picks should determine the direction you go.

Take a look at Chris Paul’s sterling line and which category stands out as a weakness? That’d be blocked shots. LeBron James fills it up all over, but his negative impact in free throw percentage is outdone by only a handful of players. After you draft Paul or LeBron in the first round, their weaknesses need to be on your mind as much as their strengths. In Paul’s case, a big man who doesn’t draw a large part of his impact from blocks (like Carlos Boozer) is a solid pairing. In LeBron’s case, Dwight Howard is the natural pairing, given his extremes in positives (boards, field goal percentage, and blocks) and his category-killing impact in free throw percentage. From there, you continue to build on your strengths and fill in holes, while all but eliminating from consideration a player’s positive contributions in the category you have opted to punt. Be careful of over-loading in just a few categories, however – beating your opponent by 50 assists in a given matchup has the same affect in the standings as if you were to beat them by five, and being over-zealous in one area naturally tends to detract from potential success in another.

Don’t dismiss the balanced approach in h2h as being without merit. First of all, you are virtually a lock to beat your opponents who punt categories in those categories, and you at least give yourself a chance to be competitive in most categories in any given week. Injuries and NBA schedule quirks may decide occasional matchups along the way, but this much is true – if you draft well, your team will do well in the standings.

One factor to keep in mind in h2h leagues is the NBA schedule during the fantasy playoffs. While you don’t want it to completely determine how you construct your team, it certainly can play a key role if/when you make the championship bracket. You can steamroll your way through the regular season but then lose in the playoffs because a handful of extra games gave your opponent a win of the “quantity over quality” variety. You can find a scheduling breakdown for all 30 teams during the fantasy playoffs below – you may want to bookmark this page so you can refer back to it as needed.

Non-Standard Leagues

I’ll only make one point here. Don’t go into a non-standard draft relying on a rankings list that was compiled assuming standard settings. Convincing yourself that things aren’t too far off and you can make up the difference on the fly is only asking for trouble. If you are in a nine-category league, you can use Yahoo!’s O-Ranks, Ranks, position primers, and consensus position ranks as benchmarks without reservations. But once you get off the beaten path, you can’t just wing it – the more precise you are in strategy, the more likely you are to achieve success. One site I’ve found to be an enormous help when it comes to non-standard rankings is Basketball Monster – plug in your specific scoring settings and it will show you, by the numbers, exactly who ranked where and why. It’s the type of knowledge that can prove to be invaluable once that draft clock starts ticking.