NBA Skinny: Highs and lows

Your overall strategy for this early time of the season should include four words: buy low, sell high. Now that we’re two weeks into the season, a team’s collective struggles and place in the standings can seem much worse than they actually are to a short-sighted owner. Obviously, injuries can wreak legitimate havoc on a fantasy team in short order, but not every player that is under or overachieving will continue to do so, and the key is finding out who is willing to overpay (for someone like Tayshaun Prince) or undersell (on someone like Elton Brand). There’s simply no good reason to not send out some emails and/or feeler offers for players whose value may not get any lower this season or to shop your flash in the pan for someone with better long-term prospects.

Weekend Update: Need-to-know info from the past few days

• We didn’t get many substantive updates on the Al Harrington saga over the weekend. Harrington won’t have to play for the Warriors any time soon thanks to a back injury that he’s allegedly been dealing with since the offseason. Knicks president Donnie Walsh thinks Harrington would be a good fit in New York but has to dream up a scenario in which another team willfully trades for Eddy Curry and his $30-million contract. An interesting scenario mentioned in the Daily News, if they can’t find a taker for Curry, is Malik Rose and David Lee for Harrington. They also float a scenario out there in which Curry could find a new home alongside Tim Duncan in San Antonio.

Gerald Wallace is also on the block and the Raptors could be interested, but they’ve only got so much to work with in terms of salaries.

• The general consensus is that Antonio McDyess will re-sign with the Pistons after the mandated 30-day waiting period, now that he’s been bought out by the Nuggets. While that is the likely scenario, McDyess won’t be without options – his agent has said that as many as 17 teams have been in contact, and Boston and Cleveland are serious contenders and have more money to offer than Detroit. McDyess would immediately regain fantasy relevance if he were to end up as the starter for a team like the Cavs.

• Deron Williams’ timeframe for returning from his left ankle sprain was modified from two weeks to four to six weeks over the weekend. It’s doubtful we see him back on the court before next week – the injury occurred on Oct. 18 and he had some swelling for the first time “in a while” on the team’s four-hour flight on Saturday. His status for the entire week (a four-game road trip) could be determined after the Jazz’s Monday practice, so look for updates.

• If Kirk Hinrich’s fantasy owners are looking for a silver lining in the wake of his thumb injury that will keep him out around three months, it has to be that they no longer have to waffle on whether or not to drop him. I can unfortunately speak from personal experience. He was sporadic as a reserve in the early going and, to add insult to injury, got hurt in the first game in which he was part of the starting lineup. The depleted Bulls have no choice in the short-term but to give Derrick Rose, Ben Gordon and Luol Deng massive minutes, and Andres Nocioni will also log heavy minutes as a reserve. Speculation is that Larry Hughes could be back later this week and he’s likely to bump Gordon back to his standard sixth-man role. Feel free to cut Hinrich loose. As usual, roster Hughes with caution.

• Michael Redd’s ankle has caused him to miss the past three games, and he’s already been declared out for a fourth. The Bucks play two sets of back-to-backs this week, a tough stretch for a player saying that he “can’t cut real well” or “chase anybody really well.” Charlie Bell has been getting the starts (16 points, 2 threes on Saturday), but Ramon Sessions continues to be the great play while Redd is sidelined, and it’s a very good idea to get him back on rosters.

• Two Spurs updates in the same write-up: Tony Parker’s Grade 2 ankle sprain will keep him out for one month, and (deep leaguers take note) we’re likely to see rookie PG George Hill “get to play a lot.” And Manu Ginobili is coming along well enough (he’s been sprinting and dunking in recent drills) that “there has been speculation” that he could return sooner than the popular target date of mid-December. Don’t believe it until you see it, but it at least qualifies as a positive for his fantasy owners.

• Josh Smith joined the growing contingent of ankle-sprainers on Friday, and he’s expected to be out two-to-four weeks. Zaza Pachulia and Maurice Evans will see many of the surplus minutes, but neither becomes particularly relevant for fantasy purposes. One thing to watch for while Smith is sidelined is whether it’s Marvin Williams or Al Horford (both? neither?) that can expand his game and help make up for what losing Smith means to the team.

• It appears that Mehmet Okur will miss at least a few games this week, as he’s returning to Turkey because of an illness in his family. How the lineup shakes out has yet to be established, but figure on Paul Millsap being the notable short-term benefactor for fantasy purposes.

Other Injury Updates: Devin Harris is out Monday and probably won’t play Wednesday because of a left ankle sprain. … Kevin Martin sprained his ankle on Sunday and is considered day-to-day – the Kings have an off day today and play back-to-backs on Tuesday/Wednesday. … Shane Battier still appears to be a ways away from returning. … The day after leaving Sunday night’s game because of dizziness, Rodney Stuckey did not accompany the Pistons when they left for their four-game road trip. … Matt Barnes is expected back in the lineup on Monday after two games away from the team following the births of his twin boys. … Greg Oden was a light participant in practice Sunday, fueling speculation that he could be back in the lineup soon. He won’t play Monday, but Wednesday has yet to be dismissed. Tuesday’s practice should give us a better picture. … Day-to-day: Corey Maggette (hamstring), Josh Howard (a href=”http://mavsblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/11/howard-seeing-the-doc.html”>wrist), Drew Gooden (ankle), Kenyon Martin (wrist) and Chris Wilcox (knee).

Buzz Index: Notables from the weekend’s Buzz Index

Nick Young (Was – SG, SF) 16,784 adds
There’s no need to hesitate picking up Young (currently 25-percent owned), particularly if you are looking for some scoring help. His role as the team’s third scoring option isn’t changing before Gilbert Arenas gets back, and his ultra-efficient contributions are evident in his current per-game rank of 49th in the Yahoo! game. If you missed out on Roger Mason, he’s a very solid consolation prize.

Sebastian Telfair (Min – PG) 9,673 adds
Telfair joined the T-Wolves’ starting five after dishing 10 assists versus the Spurs last Wednesday – in two starts, he’s averaged 11 points, 1 three and 5.5 assists in 27 minutes. If Telfair was only named the starter to jumpstart Randy Foye, then it may be working (50 percent FG, 1.5 threes, 4.5 assists over the past two games). But if Telfair plays well enough, perhaps Randy Foye comes back as the starting SG (pushing Mike Miller to SF and the struggling Corey Brewer to the bench). I happen to believe that Foye’s career path would be better suited at SG than PG. Regardless, don’t get overly-attached to Telfair being a starter until we see how things shake out.

Jeff Green (OKC – SF, PF) 7,344 adds
Green turned some heads on Friday with 22 points, three treys and three steals, but offset it for the most part with eight points on 3-of-12 shooting on Sunday. An added three-point shot would help a fantasy impact (he made just 28 percent of his attempts last season) that is otherwise uninspiring. The Thunder are desperate for scoring outside of Kevin Durant, so the opportunity is there, I’m just not convinced he’s going to do much with it on a regular basis. When it’s all said and done, the low percentages and above-average turnovers could largely negate what he brings elsewhere.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (Mil – SF, PF) 6,587 adds
Mbah a Moute has endeared himself to Scott Skiles with versatility, hustle and defense, and it has translated into steady playing time (29 minutes) and some production (12 points, 6.8 boards, 0.6 steals and 0.9 blocks) in five November games. If he were to move ahead of Charlie Villanueva in the starting five, we could be looking at a variation of Jamario Moon’s impact from last season (as in, poor man’s and less roto-centric). As for Charlie V’s fantasy owners, I can only offer my condolences.

Brandan Wright (GS – SF, PF) 6,526 adds
By all means, pick up Wright if you need to speculate on some big-man stats – he’s averaged 11 points on 56 percent shooting, 6.3 boards, 1 steal and 3 blocks in 26 minutes over the past three games. Just keep in mind that an Al Harrington trade could net a veteran PF in return (Gerald Wallace?) who would then be likely to push Wright back to the bench.

Chris Quinn (Mia – PG, SG) 5,375 adds
Quinn suddenly looks like a solid fantasy option after dropping 14.5 points, 4.5 threes and 1.5 steals in just 20 minutes over the past two games. Mario Chalmers’ massive steal totals have helped offset the fact that he’s been nearly non-existent on offense (4.2 points over the past five games). At least keep an eye on this volatile situation, as Quinn could emerge as a fairly reliable source of threes if the minutes shake out the right way.

Spencer Hawes (Sac – C) 4,221 adds
Two quick facts for you: (1) Hawes is rostered in 72 percent of Yahoo! leagues and (2) that number should be in the high 90s. In case you haven’t noticed, he’s made at least one three in every game this season, has had three steals twice, blocked two or more shots three times, has scored in double figures in all but one game and has logged at least eight boards in five of seven games. Don’t let the reserve role scare you – given his skill set, he’s got a realistic shot at being a top-15 fantasy center, not to mention warranting near-universal ownership.

Leandro Barbosa (Pho – PG, SG) 6,021 drops
Captain Obvious thinks that Barbosa’s fantasy impact is at least somewhat system-reliant. Thus far for the Terry Porter-led, defensive-focused Suns, Barbosa has managed 7.6 points on 34 percent shooting in 21 minutes per game. He’s eighth on the team in minutes per game, and that isn’t likely to change without an injury. He’ll have the occasional good game when the matchups are just right and/or Shaquille O’Neal gets a night off, but otherwise things do not look good at all for the former fantasy favorite.

Beno Udrih (Sac – PG) 6,396 drops
Udrih has been terrible in the early going, even relative to modest expectations that most had for him (ADP of 110.7). He’s been a bit more active on offense since Brad Miller returned (12 points on 46 percent shooting) but he’s also totaled just five assists in the two games. The good news for Udrih is that undrafted rookie Bobby Brown is his only real challenge for minutes, the bad news for Udrih is that Brown has been outplaying him with fewer minutes. Don’t hesitate to cut Udrih for a solid free agent. Even at his best – like when he was playing for a contract last season – his contributions are fairly limited.

Mike Dunleavy (Ind – SG, SF) 6,411 drops
This move makes some sense in the shallowest of leagues, but otherwise I can’t condone dropping Dunleavy while his timeframe for a return is “just” unclear. I know it’s frustrating and that surgery has emerged as an option now that he’s developed a bone spur, but it still makes sense to stand pat until something definitive emerges one way or the other.

Chris Wilcox (OKC – PF, C) 7,524 drops
The Thunder have a four-big rotation working (Nick Collison, Joe Smith, Wilcox, Johan Petro) that has served to effectively limit all four players’ fantasy impact. Wilcox has limitations when he’s actually seeing starters’ minutes, so it’s a good idea to be looking for help elsewhere while all four players are healthy and seeing 20ish minutes.

Jason Thompson (Sac – PF, C) 14,946 drops
Sadly, the initial returns don’t look good for Thompson. In two games since Brad Miller returned, he’s averaged 4.5 points and 4.5 boards in 15 minutes per game. Until we see an injury or an extended steak of futility from Mikki Moore (relatively speaking, of course), it looks like Thompson won’t find enough minutes to serve a fantasy purpose. Spencer Hawes, on the other hand, is a completely different story …

Yahoo! Friends and Family League Update Chris Liss was quick to bring my squad back to earth via a 1-7-1 shellacking, and he’s now atop the league’s standings at 13-4-1. Recent transactions have included Solomon Jones, Steve Blake, Juan Dixon, Andrea Bargnani, Russell Westbrook, C.J. Watson, and Josh Boone, among others.