Position Primer: Small Forward
By Matt Buser, Yahoo! Sports Oct 8, 7:07 pm EDT
Position Primers: PG | SG | SF | PF | C
This is the third in a series of fantasy basketball position primers in preparation for the 2008-09 season. In the five primers, we will examine the statistical production fantasy owners should expect in general from players at each position, discuss a general draft strategy for each, and break down players by tiers.
Average Stats
Note: The stat averages listed below are the combined averages of the top 25 players at the position in season-ending “Rank” from each of the past three seasons.
| POS | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | 3PTM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | Rank |
| SF | .466 | 1095 | .789 | 373 | 1.33 | 18.6 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.26 | 0.72 | 2.1 | 34 |
Great overall numbers should be your expectations when you draft SF, even though the position doesn’t lead in any single statistical category. One thing SF does lead in is average rank, thanks to either a second place (3PTM, PTS, STL) or third place (FG%, FT%, REB, AST, BLK, TO) finish in every stat.
Draft Strategy
Even if you don’t use a first round pick on a SF, there’s a decent chance you’ll have rostered two or three by the time the mid-rounds arrive. Early ADP numbers have 18 players with SF eligibility in the top 50, tops at any position, and you can go 30 deep at the position and still be looking at fantasy players on whom you should place fairly serious expectations for production. You’ll find the single-greatest range in contributions from the SF position, as well – you’ve got big-time offense from Rashard Lewis, Carmelo Anthony, and Kevin Durant; you can load up on the defensive stats by way of Josh Smith, Rudy Gay, and Gerald Wallace; or you can go the across-the-board route via Caron Butler, Vince Carter, and Ron Artest.
The rankings (below) are based on the nine Yahoo! default categories (FG%, FT%, 3PTM, PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TO), with the general assumption that you are trying to win and/or be competitive in each of the nine categories.
| TIER 1 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| LeBron James | 6 | h2h | Imagine how far ahead of everyone he’d be if he could make his free throws |
| Shawn Marion | 14 | Won’t be back to Phoenix prime, but expect top 10 line on this edition of Heat | |
| Caron Butler | 34 | Per-game numbers rank among a select few, but full season has eluded him | |
| Danny Granger | 12 | He’s the man with O’Neal out of town; post-break numbers were silly | |
| TIER 2 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Rashard Lewis | 13 | roto | Elite combination of offense and efficiency has made him a roto force |
| Josh Smith | 19 | h2h | Line is among game’s most unique; efficiency challenges play better in h2h |
| Jason Richardson | 11 | Much-improved %’s buoyed rank; he’ll only repeat if that doesn’t change | |
| Andre Iguodala | 27 | He’s already near the upper escelon and Brand’s presence will only help | |
| Paul Pierce | 18 | Doesn’t need to score 20-plus any more, but overall line didn’t suffer | |
| Rudy Gay | 24 | Gets some help in Mayo, but still something of an island of talent on Grizz | |
| Vince Carter | 30 | Appears very motivated at this point, and we all know it’s up to him | |
| Antawn Jamison | 23 | roto | Crazy-good combination of volume stats (PTS, REB, 3PTM) and low TO |
| Carmelo Anthony | 33 | h2h | Absolute gold in no-TO leagues; hard to find more guaranteed offense |
| TIER 3 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Ron Artest | 69 | Per-game stats are fantastic; value pick here if he can play 75ish games | |
| Hedo Turkoglu | 36 | Full scope of game was finally on display and his situation hasn’t changed | |
| Mike Dunleavy | 20 | roto | Team’s system sure suits him; be sure to monitor status reports (tendinitis) |
| Michael Redd | 65 | Top-tier offensive contributor has upside from here; down season in 07-08 | |
| Gerald Wallace | 72 | Hard to find balance between stat potential and health concerns; X-factor | |
| Kevin Durant | 63 | Love the offensive talent, but I’m not banking on 9-cat contributions (yet) | |
| Lamar Odom | 40 | Could emerge as more of a ball-handler in offense; will put up numbers | |
| Mike Miller | 78 | Role and subsequent fantasy impact figure to be roughly the same | |
| Corey Maggette | 77 | Has to stay healthy, but figures to flourish in wide-open GSW offense | |
| Josh Howard | 51 | Upside remains, he just seems less likely to reach it at this point | |
| Luol Deng | 112 | Looks like serious bargain after tumultuous season; Rank of 18 in 06-07 | |
| Richard Jefferson | 54 | Will score plenty in his new digs, but where did the D stats go? (REB, STL) | |
| TIER 4 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Michael Beasley | - | Multi-cat game projects to be a great fit alongside Wade and Marion | |
| Stephen Jackson | 55 | h2h | Plentiful overall line will be offset with single-largest FG% detriment |
| Peja Stojakovic | 39 | roto | Amazing 0.8 TO last season and plenty of 3PTM, but marginal in most areas |
| Andrei Kirilenko | 50 | Peak three-year averages (16/8, 1.7 STL, 3 BLK) now sound like a fairy tale | |
| Tracy McGrady | 127 | h2h | Where’s T-Mac? with health already in question, fairly far down the ranks |
| TIER 5 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| John Salmons | 89 | Artest’s departure opens up a consistent significant role | |
| Francisco Garcia | 76 | Will play multiple positions and see consistent minutes, even as a reserve | |
| Jamario Moon | 46 | roto | Cumulative 9-cat roto impact dwarfs what he brings in other settings |
| Charlie Villanueva | 160 | Starting spot is his to lose; as much upside as you’ll find at this point | |
| Anthony Parker | 53 | roto | Roto glue guy sneaky-good contributor, but potential for timeshare |
| Ryan Gomes | 88 | roto | Low-risk, reasonable reward pick since he’s looking at around 30 mpg again |
| Shane Battier | 49 | roto | Roto legend dealing with Artest’s arrival and foot issues, but still worth a pick |
| Thaddeus Young | 134 | Hard to get too excited due to spot in pecking order, but can do some things | |
| Marvin Williams | 86 | Will his game ever expand to more than a few points and some boards? | |
| TIER 6 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Matt Barnes | 169 | His skills play in the Suns’ system, and there is potential for him to start | |
| Ronnie Brewer | 59 | Inconsistent and role is TBD, but you won’t find more STL this late | |
| Grant Hill | 60 | May move to bench as team wants to limit regular season minutes | |
| Ricky Davis | 91 | Crowded depth chart, but Ricky always finds a way to produce in fantasy | |
| Tayshaun Prince | 96 | Has regressed in fantasy; fairly boring pick without much upside | |
| James Posey | 102 | A great fit for the Hornets, but his game doesn’t always transfer to fantasy | |
| Mickael Pietrus | 157 | Should approach career high in minutes, but low-priority in team offense | |
| Bobby Simmons | 220 | Has a chance to carve out consistent role, but nothing will be handed to him | |
| Rashad McCants | 123 | Talented offensive player but scope of opportunity doesn’t look huge | |
| Al Thornton | 180 | Showed some promise as a rookie, but also issues in all things efficiency | |
| Paul Millsap | 107 | Per-48 stats have him among ‘most likely to succeed’ in starting role | |
| Amir Johnson | 204 | Serious BLK sleeper could be looking at a starting gig; boom/bust pick | |
| TIER 7 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Jeff Green | 212 | Didn’t accomplish much with reasonable rookie minutes; not expecting leap | |
| Travis Outlaw | 125 | Ever-intriguing potential but once again coming off bench for deep squad | |
| Andres Nocioni | 121 | Nothing has changed about his role or in terms of expected production | |
| Wilson Chandler | 293 | D’Antoni has been talking him up, and that’s reason enough to target him | |
| Linas Kleiza | 110 | Looking at expanded role and team will need all offense all the time | |
| Martell Webster | 143 | Makes some threes, but that’s it; seems to only serve to hold Outlaw back |
07-08: season-ending Yahoo! rank (default 9-cat cumulative value)
BIAS: Notes when a player’s 9-cat line is more favorable in roto or h2h leagues; if blank, the player’s overall impact is relatively even in both
