Position Primer: Point Guard
Position Primers: PG | SG | SF | PF | C
This is the first in a series of fantasy basketball position primers in preparation for the 2008-09 season. In the five primers, we will examine the statistical production fantasy owners should expect in general from players at each position, discuss a general draft strategy for each, and break down players by tiers.
Average Stats
Note: The stat averages listed below are the combined averages of the top 25 players at the position in season-ending “Rank” from each of the past three seasons.
| POS | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | 3PTM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | Rank |
| PG | .452 | 999 | .813 | 314 | 1.3 | 16.5 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 1.35 | 0.2 | 2.47 | 51 |
Naturally, the PG position is comfortably ahead of the others in assists; it is also tops in steals and just behind SG for the highest mark in FT%. The position places last in four categories – FG%, REB, BLK, and TO – but keep in mind that assist-to-turnover ratio is often a better way to look at PG (and other players, for that matter) than by turnovers alone (the position’s AST:TO of 2.59:1 was easily the best).
Draft Strategy
It’s a good rule of thumb to plan on drafting at least three PG – even though you can supplement team assist totals with players at other positions, it’s generally a good idea to carry at least three players with eligibility at the position. Chris Paul will be the first player drafted more often than not – otherwise, you’ll need to spend one of your first two picks to get one of the true elite players at the position. Even if you wait a few rounds, it’s not wise to hold out too long – PG and C are the two positions where runs always occur, and the available talent at the end is always less appealing than at the start.
It’s also a good idea to assess your PG-eligible players as a unit, not as individual players, in order to get a combination that is as complementary as possible. If you are fortunate enough to land Paul then you’ve got some artistic license, given his across-the-board numbers. If you start with a player like Dwyane Wade, you’ll want to concentrate a bit more on assists and threes moving forward. If you draft Deron Williams or Jose Calderon, assists become slightly less of a priority when you are looking at your PG2. And don’t be afraid to fill a UTIL spot sooner than later with your PG3, especially given the position’s tendency to come off the board in clusters at any given point. The late rounds often produce sleeper PG, and this season is no different – early ADP numbers point to players like Ramon Sessions (138.5), Mike Conley (126.8), and Chris Duhon (132.0).
The rankings (below) are based on the nine Yahoo! default categories (FG%, FT%, 3PTM, PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TO), with the general assumption that you are trying to win and/or be competitive in each of the nine categories.
| TIER 1 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Chris Paul | 1 | Line is as close to flawless as you are going to get; near-universal top pick | |
| Dwyane Wade | 119 | Very strong Olympic showing was huge; camp can bring even more clarity | |
| Baron Davis | 7 | Gamble here is that he’ll duplicate contract year performance and health | |
| Allen Iverson | 8 | Great system fit and will be needed for big-time numbers as much as ever | |
| TIER 2 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Chauncey Billups | 10 | roto | His true roto impact is often underestimated; still has a few top years left |
| Deron Williams | 22 | On the cusp; more threes and steals would push him into the elite tier | |
| Steve Nash | 16 | Team’s focus on defense and talk of reduced minutes working against him | |
| Jose Calderon | 29 | roto | Hyper-efficient performer should excel in Curry Line for years to come |
| Joe Johnson | 37 | Post-trade (Bibby) numbers over a full season would be on another level | |
| TIER 3 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Jason Kidd | 35 | h2h | Gone the way of the specialist (AST, REB, STL) but a very, very good one |
| Mo Williams | 70 | Offensive role in Cleveland couldn’t suit him better; career season coming | |
| Brandon Roy | 62 | Incremental improvements expected, but team depth limits fantasy upside | |
| Andre Miller | 57 | Steady vet looking at serious assist opportunities with team talent | |
| Devin Harris | 93 | 3PTM and STL totals will determine his fantasy fate (good or great) | |
| TIER 4 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Mike Bibby | 177 | May never recover offensive efficiency but still solid enough option | |
| Jamal Crawford | 48 | D’Antoni system bodes well but FG% may remain a massive detriment | |
| Jason Terry | 38 | roto | Figures to remain an efficient source of offense despite unsettled role |
| Randy Foye | 224 | Factors are in line for breakout season; could emerge as serious bargain | |
| T.J. Ford | 174 | Would be higher if not for health issues; handcuffing makes sense (Jack) | |
| Tony Parker | 129 | h2h | Will be needed more while Manu sits, category-specific line won’t change |
| TIER 5 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Kirk Hinrich | 94 | It certainly can’t get any worse than 07-08; solid upside gamble here | |
| Leandro Barbosa | 52 | roto | Very sytem-dependant and things are different with the Suns; X-factor |
| Rajon Rondo | 97 | h2h | Never figures to excel on offense, but choice mid-round AST/STL combo |
| O.J. Mayo | - | Bulk offense will be there, but be wary of efficiency and 9-cat overall line | |
| Raymond Felton | 98 | New regime could breathe new life into Felton’s game, but remains risky | |
| Ramon Sessions | 298 | Unbalanced hype-to-sample-size ratio, but AST opportunities abound | |
| Derrick Rose | - | Knee tendinitis, team depth chart, and rookie wall all working against him | |
| TIER 6 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Earl Watson | 108 | Could wind up underrated in hindsight, despite presense of Westbrook | |
| Rafer Alston | 99 | Brings consistent strengths, weaknesses, and fantasy impact | |
| Gilbert Arenas | 307 | Feel free to rank him higher, but I don’t see any reason to be optimistic | |
| Marcus Williams | 268 | Nellie coach-speak hasn’t been in his favor, but remains fantasy favorite | |
| Beno Udrih | 137 | “Safe” choice at this stage: clear full-time starter, but lacks much upside | |
| TIER 7 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Jameer Nelson | 104 | Officially a sleeper now that we’ve all given up on him; still the starter | |
| Delonte West | 201 | roto | Warrants a speculative draft pick while battling for starting SG spot |
| Mike Conley | 235 | All but forgotten after rookie struggles, but no-risk pick could reward | |
| Monta Ellis | 26 | Hard to picture his ankle allowing him to approach 100% at all in 08-09 | |
| Chris Duhon | 213 | Enviable expected role tempered by serious skill-set limitations | |
| Antonio Daniels | 148 | Looking at starts while Arenas recovers, but his upside is limited | |
| TIER 8 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Jordan Farmar | 114 | Likely to push Fisher for playing time, but hard to expect too much | |
| Louis Williams | 141 | Offensive talent but there’s only so much PT and shots to go around | |
| Rudy Fernandez | - | Love the kid’s game, but who does he steal enough minutes from? | |
| Roger Mason | 131 | Will threaten rosterable status while Manu is hurt, but role TBD otherwise | |
| Daniel Gibson | 159 | Best-case is single-category specialist (3PTM) with Williams on board | |
| Rodney Stuckey | 245 | The kid certainly showed he can play, but Billups hasn’t gone anywhere | |
| Jerryd Bayless | - | Loaded depth chart bodes well in real life standings but bad in fantasy | |
| Derek Fisher | 84 | Only viable as a low-risk, low-reward pick in deep leagues | |
| Luke Ridnour | 233 | He’s ready to step in if Sessions can’t handle the full-time gig |
07-08: season-ending Yahoo! rank (default 9-cat cumulative value)
BIAS: Notes when a player’s 9-cat line is more favorable in roto or h2h leagues; if blank, the player’s overall impact is relatively even in both
